Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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theprestige said:
Most places, so far, it kills about as many people as a bad batch of the flu.
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The problem is, in a normal 'flu season, only a small percentage of people get it. Some carry immunity, some are immunised - with covid, nobody seems immune, except maybe kids, and nobody is immunised.

If it gets traction all over the world, the reckoning is that 60% of people will be infected.
 
The Atheist said:
The problem is, in a normal 'flu season, only a small percentage of people get it. Some carry immunity, some are immunised - with covid, nobody seems immune, except maybe kids, and nobody is immunised.

If it gets traction all over the world, the reckoning is that 60% of people will be infected.
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Yeah, that's the problem. Because the flu is endemic, there are a fair number of peeps that are resistant so the R0 is only a bit over 1. This puppy is both new and more deadly. Bad combo. On the positive side I think people are going to be much more receptive to hygiene and perhaps that will limit the damage. At least so I hope. Japan is already showing decreases in the flu. Will these measures reduce R0 for the Coronavirus below 1? Possibly in some countries.

In the meantime the Olympics is still saying Japan 2020 is on. Anyone taking odds?

Still likely to play havoc with the global economy. Still a lot of wishful thinking going on. Like in the summer of 2007.
 
marting said:
In the meantime the Olympics is still saying Japan 2020 is on. Anyone taking odds?
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Like the wider economy, I'd be going short the Olympics right now.

marting said:
Still likely to play havoc with the global economy. Still a lot of wishful thinking going on.
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Absolutely - I've started a thread in Business suggesting shorting the sharemarkets in developed countries.

I think your wishful thinking is right - a lot of people are ignoring because the alternative is a touch horrifying.
 
China not reporting today, or have they done another switch on numbers?

Worldometer is showing 2 new deaths and 11 new cases, fewer than Iran...
 
The Atheist said:
China not reporting today, or have they done another switch on numbers?

Worldometer is showing 2 new deaths and 11 new cases, fewer than Iran...
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Currently, Worldometer is reporting 3,458 deaths. However, this is clearly a typo since all their detail below is just under 2,500.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

John's Hopkins shows 2470 including now 3 from the Diamond Princess.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
The stock market will drop. But this is a temporary problem and at some point it will recover.

Sell now, buy when it drops a sufficient amount.
 
To angrysoba from my infectious disease newsfeed:
Breakdown of positive cases by prefecture:
Tokyo - 29
Hokkaido - 26
Kanagawa - 16
Aichi - 17
Wakayama - [34]
Chiba - 10
Kumamoto - 3
Okinawa - 3
Ishikawa - 2
Kyoto - 2
Fukuoka - 2
Tochigi - 1
Saitama - 1
Mie - 1
Nara - 1
Osaka - 1
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Skeptic Ginger said:
To angrysoba from my infectious disease newsfeed:
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Thanks for that. The numbers for each prefecture are being shown pretty regularly on the news here.

The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.

The Hokkaido one also seems a bit strange as I don’t think anyone knows the trail that led to it.

There is a female university student about 20 years old who seems to be in a very serious situation there.
 
angrysoba said:
The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.
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I think there's a strong clue in all of the strange, pop-up cases, that a lot more people are infected but asymptomatic than we're aware of.

Right from the start, the smart guys were suggesting there were ten times more cases than known, because 90% of cases were so mild as to not be noticed.

That seems to be the only explanation for that kind of case, the Italian cases, and Iran - there has to be two or three degrees of separation between them and China.

I hope that's what's happening, because then we won't be seeing the apocalyptic mess I envision right now.

angrysoba said:
There is a female university student about 20 years old who seems to be in a very serious situation there.
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Had to happen, I guess. She's right on the limit of what had happened in terms of severity, so I hope she recovers.
 
I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it

Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
 
Haha! Your post made me forget why I came in - I was going to say that for someone who keeps claiming the situation is under control, Xi sounds awfully unsure of himself, locked away and talking to 170,000 people on conference call:

President Xi Jinping urged China to “spare no effort” to contain the coronavirus outbreak in Beijing...

Xi issued his warning in a conference call Sunday attended by more than 170,000 government and ruling party officials ...

“The security and stability of the capital city have a direct bearing on the overall work of the party and the country,” Xi said.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...alarm-over-virus-outbreak-at-party-s-doorstep
 
The Atheist said:
angrysoba said:
The one in Wakayama is a bit odd. It’s in a fairly rural area with one hospital that has had to effectively shut down while they deal with the cases there.
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I think there's a strong clue in all of the strange, pop-up cases, that a lot more people are infected but asymptomatic than we're aware of.
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It's funny, we were in China a few months ago and I'm very stuffy in the morning.
 
Frank Newgent said:
It's funny, we were in China a few months ago and I'm very stuffy in the morning.
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It's probably too long ago, especially if it was pre-November, but there are so many things we don't know about the virus almost nothing's impossible.

If you turn up with it, it's infinitely more likely you picked it up since your return. The US testing of people in hospital with pneumonia might turn up some answers.
 
pipelineaudio said:
I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it
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If you're looking at cultural greeting, Maori not just press noses together, they hold it to share a breath. Hongi, it's called and I've always considered it the dumbest and most dangerous form of greeting ever thought up.

pipelineaudio said:
Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
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We're rooting for you!
 
pipelineaudio said:
I figure due to the way hawaiians and italians greet each other, those two cultures are doomed. It makes you feel pretty welcome during the good times so maybe that makes up for it

Pretty worried the love of my life may have it as well, lets all hope we pull through ok
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If she's not well, it's probably something else. It's not in your area yet and flu is.
 
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