2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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Distracted1 said:
The "smear campaign" will be unnecessary. The non-trumpster conservatives already consider Sanders a Socialist.
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Thanks, but that's irrelevant to the actual issue: Whether or not that will be sufficient to cause Sanders to lose Trump. I don't think it will.
 
Segnosaur said:
Possibly true.

Of course, anyone who's NOT a white christian straight male probably has at least a little bit of a disadvantage in an election. (That also means that a woman will have a slightly harder time to become president.)

But, its not impossible.... just more difficult.
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I agree that it's not just being gay that puts you at a disadvantage, and I'd agree if you were to point at Obama as an example of someone overcoming such a disadvantage.

But I don't think a county in which Chick-Fil-A is the third largest fast food chain, and where only 61% of the population believes in gay marriage would be too keen on handing the highest office in the land to someone who's gay.

It'd be nice to think that wasn't the case, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

But, as I said, the times are changing, a more accepting generation is getting older, and he's young. In the mean time, even just running is a step forwards.
 
Suddenly said:
If Sanders becomes the nominee and shares a stage with Trump so they see what he is rather than just "that socialist nut" and that he's going to go straight for Trump's neck and hammer him on populist issues like healthcare and labor rights rather than try to seem more presidential, he'll peel a significant number of these voters off.
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I have to disagree. This election will not be about policy, it will be a tribal vote. Whoever the Dems nominate, I suspect nearly every vote will be cast in stone in a few months. In that case, turnout determines the winner and, baring a true disaster, the debates will be boring and not move a single vote.

Admittedly, there is a bit of hyperbole here but the essence is what matters.
 
Kestrel said:
In 2016 there were few polls in states like Wisconsin that Hillary lost by a small margin. The polls that did exist focused on likely voters. Trump won those states in part by mobilizing people who didn't normally vote. White, low information, working class Americans who could be motivated by appealing to their darker side.
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Though that sounds like a plausible theory I'm not sure it's true. I posted a link in one of the Bernie threads. It was a question on Quora, so not a proper survey. If you know of one link to it; I'm curious.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Well it seems a Sanders candidacy is inevitable so I hope you're right.

I'm not thrilling about putting my faith in someone who it took him 3 times to win the primary, but hope is all I've got left.
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The only time he was a serious candidate was 2016, and that wasn't even the case IMO. It was his standard protest candidacy that turned out could have been viable had he planned instead of punting the whole south. Maybe he didn't get treated all that fairly, but when you barely try in states that give your opponent a virtual mathematical lock to beat you, DNC hostility isn't significant.

Some of his supporters are exasperating, maybe me among them, but show me a candidate where that isn't the case and I'll show you a losing candidate. Being "electable" is fine as a consideration, but when it is the bulk of the candidate's message that candidate is in big trouble.

I'm not sold on the same demographic that was crucial in 2016 (rust belt white working class) will be this time around, and I hope it isn't again, but if it is, these are my people. I swim in these waters, and of the slate of Democratic candidates Bernie is the easiest to sell in my experience, and it isn't close.
 
Really though, I spend wayyyyy to much time trying to get people to understand Trump is not their friend by pointing out concrete examples of how he makes their lives worse. The big stumbling block is the lack of anyone else with visceral appeal.

Bernie is pretty much it. Warren shows flashes but every time she tries to appeal to the democratic establishment rather than be Angry Scorched Earth Warren the less useful she is to what I am doing.

Again, I am speaking about a pretty narrow demo here.
 
SezMe said:
I have to disagree. This election will not be about policy, it will be a tribal vote. .
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I don't think it is about policy either. If Sanders brought Sanders energy but had a less socialist universal healthcare policy it would change little and maybe help him.

It is his passion for criticizing the establishment that is his appeal outside the left. This is why he's most Biden voter's second choice in a lot of surveys. He could be parroting Biden on policy and this would hold. It isn't about policy. Trump proves that.
 
Suddenly said:
I don't think it is about policy either. If Sanders brought Sanders energy but had a less socialist universal healthcare policy it would change little and maybe help him.

It is his passion for criticizing the establishment that is his appeal outside the left. This is why he's most Biden voter's second choice in a lot of surveys. He could be parroting Biden on policy and this would hold. It isn't about policy. Trump proves that.
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Thanks for mentioning what I've been saying for a few months now.

Sanders' appeal is not limited to self-professed socialists and progressives like some here keep repeating. No "hidden swath" of self-professed progressive voters necessary (but not unlikely) just voters who vote for the progressive candidate, and that apparently includes a good chunk of Biden voters, approximately a quarter.
 
Here are FiveThirtyEight's projections for Nevada. It will be interesting to see who over-performs and who falls short:

Sanders: 39%
Buttigieg: 17%
Biden: 16%
Warren: 12%
Klobuchar: 7%

They don't show a specific predicition for Steyer, but their average of polls has him about 10%.

Note that because of the 15% viability threshold, Sanders should be the only one picking up delegates everywhere.
 
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Trebuchet said:
Tapatalk gave me an ad for Tulsi Gabbard. I was surprised to learn she was still running.
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Her ads have been prolific in political threads, but I've seen Warren ads now displacing hers as most frequent. A few Bloombergs popped up a week or so ago, but then disappeared again.
 
Suddenly said:
Really though, I spend wayyyyy to much time trying to get people to understand Trump is not their friend by pointing out concrete examples of how he makes their lives worse. The big stumbling block is the lack of anyone else with visceral appeal.

Bernie is pretty much it. Warren shows flashes but every time she tries to appeal to the democratic establishment rather than be Angry Scorched Earth Warren the less useful she is to what I am doing.

Again, I am speaking about a pretty narrow demo here.
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A high school classmate that can barely make ends meet is a diabetic. She thinks god sent Trump to fix the country. Pointing out how Trump has done nothing about her insulin costs just does not register.
 
Trebuchet said:
Tapatalk gave me an ad for Tulsi Gabbard. I was surprised to learn she was still running.
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Juicero hit Tapatalk pretty hard, towards the end. I figure, if it's advertising on Tapatalk, it must either be low quality off brand crap, literal snake oil, or a once-plausible product that is way beyond any sort of credibility now.
 
A Hollywood Legend Talks Politics

As for the domestic political scene, Mr. Eastwood seems disheartened. “The politics has gotten so ornery,” he says, hunching his shoulders in resignation. He approves of “certain things that Trump’s done” but wishes the president would act “in a more genteel way, without tweeting and calling people names. I would personally like for him to not bring himself to that level.” As he drives me back to my hotel, he expresses an affinity for another former mayor: “The best thing we could do is just get Mike Bloomberg in there."
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Perhaps not the ringing endorsement Bloomberg needs right now.

Vote for Bloomberg: just like Trump minus the tweeting!
 
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