2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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TragicMonkey said:
I see your mistake here. You think I'm Elizabeth Warren. I'm not. It was I who said the above about being the smart person's candidate, not Warren who said it. Imagine two things that are separate, and one is me and the other is Warren, it's very similar to that. We were born at different times to different parents into different bodies, even. She's a sexy old lady running for president. I'm a sexy old lady running SQL queries. She's got a string of gold albums from her pop star career. I've got a greenhouse full of antelope bones. We're very similar, Lizwar and I, but still separate people.
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I can't verify that you aren't, in fact, Elizabeth Warren. I remain agnostic to your separate identity.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I see your mistake here. You think I'm Elizabeth Warren. I'm not. It was I who said the above about being the smart person's candidate, not Warren who said it. Imagine two things that are separate, and one is me and the other is Warren, it's very similar to that. We were born at different times to different parents into different bodies, even. She's a sexy old lady running for president. I'm a sexy old lady running SQL queries. She's got a string of gold albums from her pop star career. I've got a greenhouse full of antelope bones. We're very similar, Lizwar and I, but still separate people.
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Oh, that's so precious the way you think things supporters say won't have any impact on perception of a candidate.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
That's right, Trump gets a second term unless we take advice from Max Boot. /s

Sucks that Max lost his party to an authoritarian carnival barker, but we don't need his bad faith advice to win.
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"So Max Boot, who only recently became a Democrat, is getting yelled at for preferring Mike Bloomberg, who only recently became a Democrat, over Bernie Sanders, who only recently became a Democrat, to stop Donald Trump, who only recently became a Republican." - Dan McLaughlin
 
Delphic Oracle said:
Oh, that's so precious the way you think things supporters say won't have any impact on perception of a candidate.
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I realize I'm a powerful influence due to my fame and fortune, so of course millions if not billions of voters hang upon my every word, and decide who to vote for based on my posts on this most prominent of message boards. When I say I favor Warren and NASCAR is stupid I just cost Warren the south.

I think people posting here need to get some perspective on this place. It's fun, but influences absolutely nothing. I got more attention for posting where to best harvest fadeleaf herbs on a World of Warcraft wiki than anything anybody's ever posted here. This is funtime shenanigans, not national political powerbroking.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I realize I'm a powerful influence due to my fame and fortune, so of course millions if not billions of voters hang upon my every word, and decide who to vote for based on my posts on this most prominent of message boards. When I say I favor Warren and NASCAR is stupid I just cost Warren the south.

I think people posting here need to get some perspective on this place. It's fun, but influences absolutely nothing. I got more attention for posting where to best harvest fadeleaf herbs on a World of Warcraft wiki than anything anybody's ever posted here. This is funtime shenanigans, not national political powerbroking.
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No, I said exactly jack ******* **** about how influential this forum is on the election or general public attitudes about things.

So that's two people in a row this morning you've done the "it is worth noting that Bangladesh is not Ukraine" dance with.

Engage on the issue honestly. I don't have patience for you pissing in people's cheerios for lulz.

But that's how it is now, right? Say something regrettable, get called out on it, double, triple down on it. Make yourself out as the victim.

It's the go-to way of "not giving any *****."
 
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C_Felix said:
I'm waiting for Trump to use a word that could be considered homophobic and/or a pejorative for gays in reference to Mayor Pete.

Sometimes I believe he knows enough to show restraint in such an area, but then again....
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He doesn't need to go after Pete for being gay. He's got surrogates to do that for him. Like Rush Limbaugh, just yesterday.
 
Dr. Keith said:
He doesn't need to go after Pete for being gay. He's got surrogates to do that for him. Like Rush Limbaugh, just yesterday.
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You can't blame Trump for what Rush says, I don't think Trump has ever shown that he agrees with Rush or supports what he is doing.
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Umm... yes you can certainly blame Trump.

Trump gave Rush Lymphnode the Medal of Freedom. He awarded it despite the fact that he had a habit of making statements that were 1) racist, 2) attacked people with Parkinsons', and 3) anti-LGBTQ. This suggests a tacit approval of Rush's rhetoric.

If Trump wanted to distance himself from those types of statements, he should not have awarded him the Medal of Freedom.

ETA: I was assuming your posting was an honest statement. If it was meant as sarcasm, then ignore what I just said.
 
theprestige said:
Biden is skipping to South Carolina, probably to get a head start on dropping out there.
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I knew Biden had run for President before, both for the 2008 and the 1988 election. But I forgot how bad he did in 2008 (dropped out after getting 1% in Iowa), and I don't think I was ever really aware of how bad he did in 1988. He cratered so hard because of the Kinnock plagiarism and other lies that he actually withdrew in 1987, before a single vote was cast. So he's improved his performance, but yeah... he's still gonna crash. Again.
 
Sanders will likely "falter" to 2nd/3rd in a few upcoming contests. His warchest doesn't require him to make reactionary moves from this.

Steyer may have a surprisingly good showing in NV/SC. It will be interesting to see if Biden continues to under-perform in these two, especially Nevada where the party is still deluded in the belief of union-machine politics. Regardless, I expect the next several contests will reshuffle the "moderate lane" while Bernie stays consistently in the top 3.

Looking back over the last several contests with big fields, it does seem like the "party" goes into "let's try anyone but that" mode, courting every candidate in turn, which of course just leaves them all with a smattering of votes well behind the outsider who rides 20-30% to victory over and over. Remember also that some delegates are statewide and some delegates are district-based a candidate can have lower than 15% in statewide voting, but still collect delegates.
 
Delphic Oracle said:
No, I said exactly jack ******* **** about how influential this forum is on the election or general public attitudes about things.

So that's two people in a row this morning you've done the "it is worth noting that Bangladesh is not Ukraine" dance with.

Engage on the issue honestly. I don't have patience for you pissing in people's cheerios for lulz.

But that's how it is now, right? Say something regrettable, get called out on it, double, triple down on it. Make yourself out as the victim.

It's the go-to way of "not giving any *****."
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If I knew which candidate you prefer I'd say this won't endear them to the public.
 
Delphic Oracle said:
Sanders will likely "falter" to 2nd/3rd in a few upcoming contests. His warchest doesn't require him to make reactionary moves from this.

Steyer may have a surprisingly good showing in NV/SC. It will be interesting to see if Biden continues to under-perform in these two, especially Nevada where the party is still deluded in the belief of union-machine politics. Regardless, I expect the next several contests will reshuffle the "moderate lane" while Bernie stays consistently in the top 3.

Looking back over the last several contests with big fields, it does seem like the "party" goes into "let's try anyone but that" mode, courting every candidate in turn, which of course just leaves them all with a smattering of votes well behind the outsider who rides 20-30% to victory over and over. Remember also that some delegates are statewide and some delegates are district-based a candidate can have lower than 15% in statewide voting, but still collect delegates.
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Polling for Sanders shows him way in the lead in Nevada. Despite all the BS about white Bernie Bros, Sanders does quite well with nonwhite voters. The lily white state of Iowa and NH have been massive boons to Pete and Klob, both who have very poor support in nonwhite communities. Both of these campaigns are about to get a hard reality check in the less white states of NV and SC.

538 has Sanders polling 10 points up from second place Biden who is nosediving. 15+ up from warren, and more so for the rest.

SC still has Biden in the lead, but his polling is nosediving. Bernie is in second with a healthy lead over the rest. Bernie is 6 points behind Biden and 10 points ahead of the rest of the pack.

I could easily see these next two contests the moment when Sanders pulls into the sole frontrunner status away from Pete and Klob.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/nevada/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
And for whatever reason, smart-person candidates are not always smart in marketing their smart policies. Hillary had this problem.
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Yep. It's great that Warren can talk about the details. But neither the people or the press care that much.
 
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