2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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Trebuchet said:
They aren't going to vote for Trump, but I think some will stay home.
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This is where the Dems have to put their efforts, convincing everyone that is willing to vote Dem that they need to get out and vote Dem because not doing so is a vote for Trump and the GOP. They managed to do it in 2018, now they have to do it again in 2020.

And they really don't need to get a lot of them. Just 20% of those that didn't vote in 2016 voting Dem would have meant that result would have been the other way around. Is that possible? Well, the numbers that turned out in 2018 showed that the Dems increased their vote by 65% from 2014 to 2018. The Republican vote increased by just 26%.

If they can repeat this increase (though it might not be as large due to people being more likely to vote in Presidential years anyways) and it is in the right places, then come Jan of 2021, we might be seeing an entirely new political landscape in the US.
 
Sideroxylon said:
I even included the obvious reason why where campaign money comes for is important. At this stage America and its voters should be looking for the best candidate for ordinary Americans and the best vision for the future.
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SOme of us just don't think Sanders offers that.
 
Warren seems to be pitching herself as the "unity" candidate now, so instead of competing with Bernie she is competing with Pete? I don't get it.

From the exit polls I did notice that Pete did consistently well across most demographics. Of course, there is one demographic split we haven't really tested yet.
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
Warren seems to be pitching herself as the "unity" candidate now, so instead of competing with Bernie she is competing with Pete? I don't get it.

From the exit polls I did notice that Pete did consistently well across most demographics. Of course, there is one demographic split we haven't really tested yet.
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She's competing with both. Ok, well, they are all technically competing with each other, but I think you know what I mean.

Right now she sees the 'moderates' doing a bit of shopping around trying to find the 'not Bernie' that works best. They're 'trying on' different alternatives. Warren wants to see if she can pick up some of them that initially wrote her off as 'I Can't Believe It's Not Bernie'.

If, and needless to say this is a big 'if', these first two states are any indication, then the people in the market for a 'moderate' alternative to Biden, the 'moderate' lane if you will, is a bit less than twice the size of the 'solidly progressive' lane. Although, see my previous view of how strong 'lanes' are.

There are a lot for who ability to defeat Trump is the overwhelming factor, and they don't think Bernie can. Warren wants some of that action, and trying to snipe supporters from Bernie isn't working. Her primary tool and appeal is reason.
 
tyr_13 said:
She's competing with both. Ok, well, they are all technically competing with each other, but I think you know what I mean.

Right now she sees the 'moderates' doing a bit of shopping around trying to find the 'not Bernie' that works best. They're 'trying on' different alternatives. Warren wants to see if she can pick up some of them that initially wrote her off as 'I Can't Believe It's Not Bernie'.

If, and needless to say this is a big 'if', these first two states are any indication, then the people in the market for a 'moderate' alternative to Biden, the 'moderate' lane if you will, is a bit less than twice the size of the 'solidly progressive' lane. Although, see my previous view of how strong 'lanes' are.

There are a lot for who ability to defeat Trump is the overwhelming factor, and they don't think Bernie can. Warren wants some of that action, and trying to snipe supporters from Bernie isn't working. Her primary tool and appeal is reason.
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Warren triangulated herself into no man's land. She's not progressive enough to compete with Bernie and not corporate enough to compete with Pete/Klob. She might be a unity candidate, but she's nobody's first pick.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren triangulated herself into no man's land. She's not progressive enough to compete with Bernie and not corporate enough to compete with Pete/Klob. She might be a unity candidate, but she's nobody's first pick.
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Well, I'm a nobody, so that's at least right.

And being everyone's second pick can work. I don't see a huge chance that it will work here, but Amy doesn't really have a path either. She has no national machine right now. If some of the other big ones dropped out, she could conceivably take some of their staff, but I just don't see that working soon enough.

It will probably still be Bernie and Pete dueling it out until Biden finally leaves and one of them is seen as the 'more electable' (such a silly guess metric). Sadly the 'Bernie Bro'ish factions have already been going after Pete hardcore. Some of the attacks seem to have merit (his inability to be more direct and his history/policies with PoC especially), but others range from just silly (taking his words on his struggle with being gay WAY out of context) to the outright vile (they are already trying to Swiftboat him). Come to think of it, either of those examples could be flipped.
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
Warren seems to be pitching herself as the "unity" candidate now, so instead of competing with Bernie she is competing with Pete? I don't get it.
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Mmm. She's been pitching that for a while, and so have many of her supporters. She has a point, I think, that overall, she's the best candidate on the field to reach out to every part of, unite, and generate enthusiasm in the Democratic Party, even if she may not be everyone's first choice. If it were ranked choice voting, she'd probably win handily, in other words.

tyr_13 said:
If, and needless to say this is a big 'if', these first two states are any indication, then the people in the market for a 'moderate' alternative to Biden, the 'moderate' lane if you will, is a bit less than twice the size of the 'solidly progressive' lane. Although, see my previous view of how strong 'lanes' are.
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I don't recall your previously stated view, but, if it's like mine, "lanes" are greatly overemphasized in the media because they make for an easy narrative to spout, not because they're particularly accurate.

tyr_13 said:
There are a lot for who ability to defeat Trump is the overwhelming factor, and they don't think Bernie can. Warren wants some of that action, and trying to snipe supporters from Bernie isn't working. Her primary tool and appeal is reason.
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Mmm... I don't count what Warren's done as sniping. If anything, she's been on the receiving end of a bunch of sniping and she's pointedly refrained from engaging in sniping, as a general rule. The closest thing to sniping that she's actually done, by the look of it, is calling Buttigieg on his refusal to allow media into some of his fundraisers - and that was part of a more general and seemingly principled push for as much transparency as possible.

SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren triangulated herself into no man's land. She's not progressive enough to compete with Bernie and not corporate enough to compete with Pete/Klob. She might be a unity candidate, but she's nobody's first pick.
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She's my first choice, by a large margin. 3rd in Iowa and 4th in NH in a crowded field also makes it pretty clear that "nobody's first pick" is quite inaccurate. Going beyond that, are you really calling TragicMonkey a nobody? :boxedin:

SuburbanTurkey said:
That's right, Trump gets a second term unless we take advice from Max Boot. /s

Sucks that Max lost his party to an authoritarian carnival barker, but we don't need his bad faith advice to win.
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Ehh, I'm not so sure that his advice is in bad faith. I'm in agreement that there's no need to treat his opinion as particularly trustworthy, though.
 
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tyr_13 said:
Well, I'm a nobody, so that's at least right.

And being everyone's second pick can work. I don't see a huge chance that it will work here, but Amy doesn't really have a path either. She has no national machine right now. If some of the other big ones dropped out, she could conceivably take some of their staff, but I just don't see that working soon enough.

It will probably still be Bernie and Pete dueling it out until Biden finally leaves and one of them is seen as the 'more electable' (such a silly guess metric). Sadly the 'Bernie Bro'ish factions have already been going after Pete hardcore. Some of the attacks seem to have merit (his inability to be more direct and his history/policies with PoC especially), but others range from just silly (taking his words on his struggle with being gay WAY out of context) to the outright vile (they are already trying to Swiftboat him). Come to think of it, either of those examples could be flipped.
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Not sure what her strategy is here though. I don't see her on the path to winning this outright, and the unity candidate only works if it goes to a brokered convention. Even then, it's going to be very hard to come out victorious unless she comes into the convention with some base of her own delegates, which means she must start performing better.

Saying "nobody" was hyperbolic on my part. There is a population of people in which Warren's positioning puts her right in the sweet spot. But it seems like that sweet spot if fairly small and not enough to make her a front-runner in this race.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Not sure what her strategy is here though. I don't see her on the path to winning this outright, and the unity candidate only works if it goes to a brokered convention. Even then, it's going to be very hard to come out victorious unless she comes into the convention with some base of her own delegates, which means she must start performing better.

Saying "nobody" was hyperbolic on my part. There is a population of people in which Warren's positioning puts her right in the sweet spot. But it seems like that sweet spot if fairly small and not enough to make her a front-runner in this race.
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The root of the problem is that Warren is the smart person's candidate, and smart people are a tiny minority.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Sorry for hurting your fee-fees, snowflake! Here's a participation trophy! You're doing your very best, high five!
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I like Warren. She's my senator and has done good work.

I'm just pointing out that a Harvard professor going around with a policy of "I'm smart, listen to me dumb-dumbs, I know what's best" is not a winning strategy.

There aren't enough highly educated, affluent professionals in this country to propel her to victory. The country isn't Boston. She's going to have to figure out how to relate to the unwashed masses or she's not viable.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
I like Warren. She's my senator and has done good work.

I'm just pointing out that a Harvard professor going around with a policy of "I'm smart, listen to me dumb-dumbs, I know what's best" is not a winning strategy.

There aren't enough highly educated, affluent professionals in this country to propel her to victory. The country isn't Boston. She's going to have to figure out how to relate to the unwashed masses or she's not viable.
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I've worked in IT all my life. Highly educated, affluent professionals are ******* idiots.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I like Warren. She's my senator and has done good work.

I'm just pointing out that a Harvard professor going around with a policy of "I'm smart, listen to me dumb-dumbs, I know what's best" is not a winning strategy.

There aren't enough highly educated, affluent professionals in this country to propel her to victory. The country isn't Boston. She's going to have to figure out how to relate to the unwashed masses or she's not viable.
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I see your mistake here. You think I'm Elizabeth Warren. I'm not. It was I who said the above about being the smart person's candidate, not Warren who said it. Imagine two things that are separate, and one is me and the other is Warren, it's very similar to that. We were born at different times to different parents into different bodies, even. She's a sexy old lady running for president. I'm a sexy old lady running SQL queries. She's got a string of gold albums from her pop star career. I've got a greenhouse full of antelope bones. We're very similar, Lizwar and I, but still separate people.
 
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