Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

Status
Not open for further replies.
novaphile said:
Meanwhile, something very odd is going on here in South Australia...

The Health Minister is refusing to say how many people have been exposed, how many people are in hospital, and how many are in quarantine elsewhere.

Just watched the TV news and he said, "I don't have any of that information, I haven't requested any of that information" and "that information is irrelevant."

It just looked really, really, odd.
(Especially for the Health Minister.)
Click to expand...

That is indeed an odd position for someone whose job it is know these things.

It may be hard to know exactly how many people have been exposed, but the other ones seem like numbers that ought to be readily available.
 
sphenisc said:
That's from 10am CET yesterday. Things have moved on apace since then...
Click to expand...
So it seems. The sitreps from WHO are usually posted around 1:00 est, but based on data gathered hours before. In this case, it made a big difference.
 
9th UK case

Meanwhile, officials are tracing the contacts of the ninth person in the UK to test positive for the virus.
The woman went to hospital in an Uber, but Public Health England said the driver is not at "high risk".
The new case - announced on Wednesday evening - is the first to be identified in London after she contracted the virus in China.
She "self-presented" at the A&E department of University Hospital Lewisham on Sunday 9 February, hospital chief executive Ben Travis said.
She arrived in an Uber, but Public Health England said the driver is "not considered high risk" because the journey was less than 15 minutes and there was not "close sustained contact".
Uber said it had temporarily suspended the driver's account "out of an abundance of caution".
Click to expand...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51486131
 
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
 
angrysoba said:
Japanese news is reporting that an 80-year-old woman in Kanagawa has died from coronavirus.
Click to expand...

That's the most interesting case so far.

The woman hasn't been anywhere near China, nor has anyone she knows. Her son-in-law is a taxi driver, though. Notably, she was diagnosed with pneumonia on 1st February, so she's obviously caught the disease 7-21 days earlier, meaning she became infected at least three weeks ago, and most likely a whole month ago. You don't develop the pneumonia immediately.

Another case reported from Japan is that of some bloke in his 20s who hasn't been to China.

That's all highly encouraging news, because while it means the virus is spreading, it's not causing the massive number of deaths seen in China.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119512597/coronavirus-japan-reports-first-death-from-outbreak

pipelineaudio said:
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
Click to expand...

Yes, there are definitely several cases of the disease going away by itself, most notably the Pommy bloke who brought it from Singapore and infected the family at his chalet.

He wasn't very sick with it, is now completely free of the disease and is at home.

There are lots of other examples.
____________________________

Taking all of the current evidence into account, it seems to me that either the virus has lost its virulence, or the numbers were skewed by only the severe cases being discovered early on. That's fairly common and happened with H1N1 Mexican 'flu.

I think it's going to be very much like that pandemic - not as bad as seasonal influenza, but due to nobody being immune, it will harvest a toll of oldies, sickies and random other people, because most people will get it.

Health services are likely to be overwhelmed by the volume, but not to the extent that the systems will break entirely. Some people will die as a result of that pressure, and I'm going to stick with my initial prediction that the final death toll will be around 3,000,000.

I think the final mortality rate will look a lot like the H1N1 at about 0.05% overall - about half seasonal 'flu. Based on 70% of the population getting it, I
get 2.66 million deaths and have thrown in a few more to account for weak health systems in many countries.

If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
 
Dr.Sid said:
The whole concept is just beyond them.
Click to expand...

Shall we start a new thread on that subject, because it's getting a touch off topic here, and I believe that sentence applies to all politicians, not just totalitarian ones.
 
The Atheist said:
Shall we start a new thread on that subject, because it's getting a touch off topic here, and I believe that sentence applies to all politicians, not just totalitarian ones.
Click to expand...

It's not so much that politicians lie, but that totalitarian regimes tend to aggressively oppose transparency as a fundamental policy of government. To a much greater degree than other systems.

Yes, Australian politicians can and do hide things. But the Chinese government is in a whole other league. And I think the reliability of the Chinese government's reporting on this issue is a central part of the topic, and should remain part of the thread.
 
The Atheist said:
...Taking all of the current evidence into account, it seems to me that either the virus has lost its virulence, or the numbers were skewed by only the severe cases being discovered early on.
Click to expand...
We know it is your second option there. I posted about it up thread. And no, viruses simply do not lose their virulence this fast and in this pattern.

I think it's going to be very much like that pandemic - not as bad as seasonal influenza, but due to nobody being immune, it will harvest a toll of oldies, sickies and random other people, because most people will get it.

Health services are likely to be overwhelmed by the volume, but not to the extent that the systems will break entirely. Some people will die as a result of that pressure, and I'm going to stick with my initial prediction that the final death toll will be around 3,000,000.

I think the final mortality rate will look a lot like the H1N1 at about 0.05% overall - about half seasonal 'flu. ...[snipped numbers]

If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
Click to expand...
Care to apologize for making fun of me for saying something similar? :rolleyes:
 
And the economic damage the virus might do is beginning to hit home: Disney is going to take a 200 Million hit from what is happening to it's Asia/Pacific based Theme Parks/Resorts: The ones in China closed, and drastic drops in attending on those in Asia outside of China.
And this is just a drop in the bucket of how much economic damage this will do.
 
The Atheist said:
If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
Click to expand...

I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
 
Stee said:
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
Click to expand...

He was a smoker maybe? I would suggest that smokers would also be vulnerable. We also do not know his other health conditions. So your assumption may not be valid.

If you are a heavy smoker I suggest there is a gun held to your head. Give up now or die from this virus. That would put a significant % of the Chinese population at risk. The rest of the non smoking world is reasonably safe.
 
Stee said:
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
Click to expand...

He could have any number of chronic conditions. Do you have any evidence that he was "perfectly healthy"?

Also, these are general predictions. It's never absolute. There will be young healthy people dying, just not a large percentage of the whole.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
We know it is your second option there. I posted about it up thread. And no, viruses simply do not lose their virulence this fast and in this pattern.

Care to apologize for making fun of me for saying something similar? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Yeah, I agree with the second option, also because there have obviously been very mild cases early on. I did mention that way back when I was using the factor of 100, which I think will be right - there will be 100 or so

Your statement about influenza being "thousands of times worse" is still woefully incorrect, so no apology.

Stee said:
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
Click to expand...

That's why I used the example of H1N1. Among the few oldies who croaked, there were several tragic cases reported just in NZ, of perfectly healthy - and in a couple of cases, extremely healthy - people who died from it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom