Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Belz... said:
But it's not the facts I was addressing; it's your constant fan-fiction where hundreds of millions die. Those aren't facts, they're speculation, and it always points in the same direction: catastrophe.

You can cuss all you want but the fact remains that this is what you've been doing all thread long.
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Dr.Sid said:
It's a possibility, which can't be ruled out at the moment, and he isn't saying it's anything else.
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That's not true. He claims more than "a possibility":

The Atheist said:
It's out, it's about, and there's no measures that will contain it.

I should start a poll on what the final death toll will be - my entry would be ~3 million worldwide.
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angrysoba said:
That's not true. He claims more than "a possibility":
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There indeed is no measure to stop it, at the moment. China did everything possible and even things not possible in western society. We can only hope it will phase out as SARS and other similar outbreaks did.

WHO isn't optimistic either:

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned the first vaccine for COVID-19 was 18 months away, adding: "To be honest, a virus is more powerful in creating political, social and economic upheaval than any terrorist attack. It's the worst enemy you can imagine."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-than-terrorism-leading-doctors-warn-11931982
 
deadrose said:
Yep, working front office for doctors taught me a couple of important rules.

Wash your hands thoroughly and often, and even more important, don't touch your eyes, nose or mouth unless you have freshly washed hands. Sanitizer is better than nothing, but good handwashing and keeping my mitts away from my face kept me from getting everything the patients dragged in, and still protects me when I regularly travel on public transit. Even when it sounds like someone's hacking up a lung two seats back.
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If doctors or their front office washed their hands as thoroughly (long, with plenty of soap, scrubbing) as is necessary to wash off the little critters, their skin would be rotten and highly susceptible to ... infections.

If you don't wash every time you touch something that may be contaminated, or if you don't wash like I described, washing hands has a way to distribute the critters all over your hands - and not get rid of enough of them.

What you really want to do is disinfect frequently. It's not good for your skin, either, but it not quite as bad as washing, and you can protect your skin better with good hand lotions. Thorough washing washes off all the lotion, disinfection (commonly with isopropanol) does not.
 
psionl0 said:
In an example of how the hysteria is spreading, a local tenant was summarily evicted from the place she was renting because she took a trip to Malaysia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...m-perth-house-over-coronavirus-fears/11959530
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Disgusting. That's one good thing about the virus spreading globally. Everybody will potentially infected, not just individuals or easily identifiable groups.
Or maybe people will use the virus as an excuse to evict anyone, who knows ..
 
Belz... said:
No, but since it's the only possibility he seems to be excited by, I have to wonder why.
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I repeat what I said earlier, when lying about what I've typed: make a whopper. Your post is a huge lie, and this is as much evidence I could be bother gathering, and I do note that you've been in thread from the entire period I took these from:

The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, the WHO has stated this is not a global pandemic right now.
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The Atheist said:
Maybe it isn't as contagious and/or virulent in tertiary infections?
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In response to Torygraph's claim the world was about to end:
The Atheist said:
An opinion piece from a rag little better then Daily Fail - although I see they're agreeing with my position on the global economy.

I'll take WHO's word for it at this stage.
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The Atheist said:
A couple of encouraging points are the cruise ships, which give a perfectly sealed-off population to watch. The fact that the numbers are quite low, despite being crammed together on a ship, eating & playing together, raises hope that it might not be as contagious as thought, but give it a few days.
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The Atheist said:
Today's numbers definitely show a levelling off in new infections, with 2500.
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The Atheist said:
The reason this isn't a global problem already is because of the unprecedented measures China has take to stop travel and confine people to their homes.

The jury is firmly out on what happens next.
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The Atheist said:
It does look like it's worse the closer to epicentre you got it, which is encouraging for everyone outside China, but the jury is still out for another week, I'd say.
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The Atheist said:
There's a good graph on this page, which shows the logarithmic rate has slowed to almost flat line: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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The Atheist said:
As always, time will tell.
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The Atheist said:
Jury still out, but I agree the latest news is encouraging.
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The Atheist said:
The most encouraging news is the rate of climb outside China, which is nothing like logarithmic, ...
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The Atheist said:
One more encouraging point - every province in China, except Shanxi, with only a handful of cases in total, is showing the new infections found below the region's high...
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The Atheist said:
Viruses often drop in virulence after a few generations, and hopefully that's what's we're seeing.
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It’s going to kill many millions I would think, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg so far.

I hope I’m wrong.
 
Stee said:
It’s going to kill many millions I would think, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg so far.

I hope I’m wrong.
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If it spreads worldwide and kills 1% of the population then 1% of 6k million is 60 million. This means that The Atheist estimate is out by a factor of 20 and he is an optimist.

OK. It spreads all over China, but hardly any cases elsewhere. That is 10 million deaths. The Atheist is still an optimist.
 
Planigale said:
Thank you for taking my comments seriously rather than dismissing them with 'I know better'.

I am sorry for not providing links, but my links would be behind a password protected commercial database and so would be no use to most, but for the lazy reader the abstracts are probably easier than having to click on links.
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They weren't. I posted them for you. Did you not notice? :mad: Besides, screw that excuse, let us decide.

I'll address the rest later when I post about your citations.
 
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The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, on the flip side, seven UK schools now closed on suspicion: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...uise-ship-quarantine-cases-latest-update-news

While Singapore looks like being very close to a major outbreak: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51470363

I flat out do not believe that if Singapore, with superb health & detection systems and easily-tracked people in a small area, has 47 cases and India only three.
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And Indonesia and Africa supposedly have no cases.

Indonesia says nothing to hide after no coronavirus cases detected

There are direct flights from China to many African countries, India and China.
 
Oystein said:
If doctors or their front office washed their hands as thoroughly (long, with plenty of soap, scrubbing) as is necessary to wash off the little critters, their skin would be rotten and highly susceptible to ... infections.
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Oh, you mean like a surgical scrub? It's amazing those surgeons have any hands left at all. :rolleyes:

The main point is don't stick your dirty fingers into body openings like nose, eyes or mouth. That's how the bacteria & viruses get in and infect you, unless they can remain airborne for hours like the measles virus. Ordinary handwashing with warm water and soap won't wipe out everything, but it will get a lot (more than hand sanitizer), and decrease the risk of infecting yourself by rubbing your eye after touching a door handle. Not rubbing your eye in the first place is the best bet (or swiping at your drippy nose, or snacking on finger food while you work).
 
Oystein said:
If doctors or their front office washed their hands as thoroughly (long, with plenty of soap, scrubbing) as is necessary to wash off the little critters, their skin would be rotten and highly susceptible to ... infections.
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deadrose said:
Oh, you mean like a surgical scrub? It's amazing those surgeons have any hands left at all. :rolleyes:
<snip>
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I wonder how many times surgeons wash their hands just before surgery per day? I am sure they will wash their hands for other reasons far more often than that.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
And Indonesia and Africa supposedly have no cases.
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Along with Myanmar, Kazakhstan & Mongolia, all of which share enormous borders with China. Nepal, with a 1000 km border, has "one" case, and India, with a 2000 km-long border has "three", being no increase in over a week.

I'd say those scenarios are about as likely as me flying to the moon without a rocket.
 
rjh01 said:
If it spreads worldwide and kills 1% of the population then 1% of 6k million is 60 million. This means that The Atheist estimate is out by a factor of 20 and he is an optimist.

OK. It spreads all over China, but hardly any cases elsewhere. That is 10 million deaths. The Atheist is still an optimist.
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I think the China-only scenario isn't even slightly likely, given the ease of transmission on the cruise ship.

As above, there are countries very close to China that are unquestionably breeding loads of cases unknown to the rest of the world. They are not isolating cases, so it's going to take off in one or more of those countries.

The real hope is that the virus has weakened, because you're right, my 3 million will be a huge undershoot if it hasn't.

India's the place that scares the crap out of me - letting the virus run rampant there seems like tipping a caseload of them into the original primordial soup to see what happens.
 
One problem might be from what I have read the early symptoms of the virus are'tn much different then those for a common cold or the flu.
 
The Atheist said:
248 deaths and 15,000 new cases yesterday?

I'm hoping there's a problem in the numbers, because if they're right, things are grim indeed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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The rapid drop off in reported new cases was rather too good to be true. I suspect the new numbers are correct and there's just been a catching up with paperwork by overworked staff at all stages through the data accumulation.
 
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