Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[Venom]

**** staying out of Australia, what you should do is stay out of China!

 

[Meadmaker]

Well, I'd say I'm curious about the numbers. I like numbers. I like graphs.
Sadly I'm more and more convinced the numbers are totally fabricated, and thus irrelevant.
China isn't testing everybody who sneezes. They only test people with severe symptoms only. Also they are supposedly not testing dead. They for sure are not testing people repeatedly, they simply don't have capacity for that.
I'm waiting for more data from western countries. I'd agree it's only starting.

I go to the WHO web site. They give daily updates. So far, there doesn't seem to be a mass of cases outside China which, frankly, puzzles me. I just don't know how it could be running so rampant in China, but a few cases here and there everywhere else in the world. It just seems like those few cases here and there would turn into an outbreak.

However, IANAnEpidemiologist.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

China has officialy about 25.3% of smokers. That's relatively high, but not unheard off. Japan has 21.7%. US 17.2%. Czech Republic ? 33.1 !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_tobacco_use

We know there are more men dying than women.

Genetics? Maybe. With SARS there were families that had higher rates of disease.

But smoking can't be ruled out until we get more demographics on the fatalities.

Smoking in China

Gender
As of 2014, two thirds of Chinese men smoked. Women smoked much less. In 2010, smoking caused nearly 1 million (840 000 male, 130 000 female) deaths in China.[35]

China remains one of the three leading countries (along with India and Indonesia) in total number of male smokers, accounted for 51.4% of the world's male smokers in 2015.[36] China also remains one of the three leading countries (along with India and the United States) in total number of female smokers, although these three countries accounted for only 27.3% of the world's female smokers, indicating that the tobacco epidemic is less geographically concentrated for women than for men.[36]

And there is this weird thing:

Hubei Province
In 2009, the authorities of Gongan County attempted to increase consumption of locally produced cigarettes, by demanding that local officials smoke up to 23,000 packs of Hubei-branded cigarettes per year. This measure was intended to bring much-needed revenue to local enterprise; quotas were issued by county authorities to offices under its jurisdiction, which in turn were fined if they failed to consume the demanded quota of cigarettes, or if they were found purchasing other brands of tobacco products. This decision was reversed after public outcry and coverage by international press.

Tobacco is a significant product in China.

The China National Tobacco Corporation (中国烟草总公司 Zhōngguó Yāncǎo Zǒnggōngsī) is by sales the largest single manufacturer of tobacco products in the world and boasts a monopoly in Mainland China generating between 7 and 10% of government revenue.[2]

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I go to the WHO web site. They give daily updates. So far, there doesn't seem to be a mass of cases outside China which, frankly, puzzles me. I just don't know how it could be running so rampant in China, but a few cases here and there everywhere else in the world. It just seems like those few cases here and there would turn into an outbreak.

However, IANAnEpidemiologist.

That can have to do with the initial control efforts. I don't think it's ever been done quarantining millions and whole cities. But in other countries cases are being identified, isolated and contacts traced and isolated.

Like I said earlier, though, if the epidemic takes off in too many countries, attempts to isolate cases will get harder and harder.


The cruise ship with 64 cases is an example of how the virus spreads in a crowded population before it is caught.

 

[ceptimus]

Number of cases still going up by roughly 10% each day.

Keep that rate up and the number of cases exceeds the world human population by the middle of June this year - although obviously the rate will tail off as the pool of not-yet-infected people becomes smaller.

I'm still waiting for reported cases in Africa or South America. It seems vanishingly unlikely to me that there really aren't any cases on those continents.

 

[The Atheist]

Well, I'd say I'm curious about the numbers. I like numbers. I like graphs.

Me too, and it's the kind of thing that is perfect for mathematical analysis.

Sadly I'm more and more convinced the numbers are totally fabricated, and thus irrelevant.

WHO seems confident in China's handling of it, including reporting of cases, so I'll go with that in the meantime. The maths appears to work on the numbers reported, so while I agree there's a question mark, it's all we have.

China isn't testing everybody who sneezes. They only test people with severe symptoms only. Also they are supposedly not testing dead. They for sure are not testing people repeatedly, they simply don't have capacity for that.

I tend to see it the other way around - they've thrown immense resources at it, and while they were at 6s & 7s a fortnight ago, they seem to have a good grip on it now.

I'm waiting for more data from western countries. I'd agree it's only starting.

The other one is the cruise ships - they will some perfect evidence.

I just don't know how it could be running so rampant in China, but a few cases here and there everywhere else in the world. It just seems like those few cases here and there would turn into an outbreak.

The reason for the few cases in the west is down to either of three factors:

1 - It's nowhere near as severe in tertiary infections and beyond and it doesn't occur to people they have it. I think this is the least likely current point going by the number of tests conducted compared to the number of cases found.

2 - Incubation lag. It does seem to have a fairly long incubation period and it could just be time before they start showing in mass numbers.

3 - China's quarantine has worked very well and it will just take longer to become apparent. I think this is a strong possibility, and people returning to work in Beijing & Shanghai this week will be bloody interesting.

I'm still waiting for reported cases in Africa or South America. It seems vanishingly unlikely to me that there really aren't any cases on those continents.

Even more so India. Both Africa & South America are a long way from the action. NZ is closer then both and is a huge destination for Chinese tourists and we haven't had a case yet.

India, however, shares a fluid border with China and them having only three cases seems extremely unlikely.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Coronavirus deaths exceed Sars fatalities in 2003

The number of coronavirus deaths has overtaken that of the Sars epidemic in 2003.
In China's Hubei province alone, the epicentre of the latest outbreak, the death toll now is put at 780 by regional health officials.
All but one of the overall total of 803 deaths have so far been in mainland China and Hong Kong.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51431087

 

[rjh01]

Suppose it does get to say, Australia. Would anyone notice? People get slightly sick, think they have a cold, do not bother to go see a doctor or if they do the doctor says it is a cold, have a week off work. After all they have not been to China. Nor are they Chinese. They then get better. This could happen if someone comes to Australia with it and is not detected or goes to a doctor. It would only be when people start needing hospital treatment that the authorities realise what is happening.

It could be happening now. It would explain why it is not reported in other countries. And for Australia above substitute your own country. What does everyone else think to this?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Me too, and it's the kind of thing that is perfect for mathematical analysis......

You have to understand epidemiology in order to use the right data to do your math with.

For example, you can't determine a mortality rate based on too small of a sample size. That would be akin to drawing a conclusion based on a couple of anecdotes.

And we know there are unreported cases, (not enough lab kits, not enough medical capacity to see cases, and no clear idea yet how many asymptomatic cases are going undetected), so the total number of cases in China are unreliable. It won't be until we can do population antibody surveys that we can give meaningful numbers to calculate true fatality rates.

And often it is the most serious cases that are first detected so the data will be skewed early on in an epidemic.

Then you have to consider if insufficient medical care capacity and other variables are contributing to the fatality rate. And are people reluctant to seek care until they are very ill due to mistrust of the medical care and authorities?


Also, some of what WHO does is political. If they were to declare China isn't doing enough, then what would China do? It just makes people like Trump, panic.

 

[novaphile]

In Australia, anyone who presents with a fever is getting tested.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

In Australia, anyone who presents with a fever is getting tested.

Assuming Australia is like the US, we had serious pandemic planning to deal with bird flu even though the pandemic has not yet occurred. Those plans are being activated.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Wow, just saw a piece on France 24. In China, drones are flying around being used to tell people in the streets to put masks on, to tell card game players to stop, calling them stupid. The drones are also going to balconies where people come out and the drone checks their temperature with a thermal detection device.

Also people that are in house quarantine are being told to wear monitors so their location can be tracked.

 

[The Atheist]

Suppose it does get to say, Australia. Would anyone notice? People get slightly sick, think they have a cold, do not bother to go see a doctor or if they do the doctor says it is a cold, have a week off work. After all they have not been to China. Nor are they Chinese. They then get better. This could happen if someone comes to Australia with it and is not detected or goes to a doctor. It would only be when people start needing hospital treatment that the authorities realise what is happening.

It could be happening now. It would explain why it is not reported in other countries. And for Australia above substitute your own country. What does everyone else think to this?

Possible, but unlikely, unless it's lost its virulence.

We're in the middle of summer, so having a cold would be unusual. NH countries would be the place to look, and UK is has tested 620 to date, for almost no positives.

 

[Steve]

Suppose it does get to say, Australia. Would anyone notice? People get slightly sick, think they have a cold, do not bother to go see a doctor or if they do the doctor says it is a cold, have a week off work. After all they have not been to China. Nor are they Chinese. They then get better. This could happen if someone comes to Australia with it and is not detected or goes to a doctor. It would only be when people start needing hospital treatment that the authorities realise what is happening.

It could be happening now. It would explain why it is not reported in other countries. And for Australia above substitute your own country. What does everyone else think to this?

In Australia, anyone who presents with a fever is getting tested.

Not in Australia but,

I have a cold right now. It started up overnight Thursday. I don’t seem to have a fever and I am not “presenting” to anyone. I expect to feel a lot better in another day or two and to be back to normal within a week. It is possible that I may have a mild dose of this new virus, but unless I start to feel a lot worse no one will ever know.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

In Australia, anyone who presents with a fever is getting tested.

Forgot to add, that would be wasteful of resources unless they are testing people with potential exposure and a fever.

Generally everyone coming to a clinic with symptoms would be asked about their travel history.

With ebola, everyone had to have it in their written policy to ask about travel to a couple specific places in Africa. Pretty much health all care facilities are asking people about travel to China now.

 

[marting]

What seems to stand out in comparison to SARs is the apparently long incubation period and fairly high infection rate. In particular, city lockdowns and people self isolating as much as possible has now been going on about 2 weeks. In those 2 weeks death totals have increased 20 fold. The increase in comparison to SARs is shocking. I also would have expected the new infections reported to start sloping downward with the strong measures China has taken but they are still pretty high. Perhaps under reporting is catching up or perhaps the damned bug is more easily spread and is closer to measles than Flu. On the positive side the number of recovered is finally increasing much more rapidly than deaths.

See post #405 for link to Johns Hopkin's tracker dashboard. Also, a google spreadsheet can be downloaded that list locations, dates, and times of infection/deaths/recovery reports.

 

[rjh01]

Possible, but unlikely, unless it's lost its virulence.

We're in the middle of summer, so having a cold would be unusual. NH countries would be the place to look, and UK is has tested 620 to date, for almost no positives.

That is it. In the UK there would be heaps of cases of people with fever. Most of the cases it would be a cold or a flu, but if one in 1,000 cases was this virus then it could be sometime before it is detected. Most people do not go to the doctor if they think they have a cold.

The Atheist says that in Australia it is summer. He may be correct now, but in two months time he will not be correct. It would be autumn. Then it would be reasonable for a person with a mild fever to think they have a cold, even if it is a mild case of this virus. They then spread it to several other people. Repeat 100 times until one person is diagnosed. Then it is too late. It is all over Australia. NZ would be no better off.

 

[Roboramma]

I go to the WHO web site. They give daily updates. So far, there doesn't seem to be a mass of cases outside China which, frankly, puzzles me. I just don't know how it could be running so rampant in China, but a few cases here and there everywhere else in the world. It just seems like those few cases here and there would turn into an outbreak.

However, IANAnEpidemiologist.

The number of cases outside of China has been growing exponentially as well, just from a smaller starting point. For example, confirmed cases:

Jan 20: 4
Jan 21: 6
8
14
25
40
57
64
87
105
118
153
173
183
188
212
227
265
317
Feb 9: 343

The growth rate seems similar outside of China to inside.

ETA: the number of confirmed cases within China has grown by a factor of 135 since Jan 20. The number of confirmed cases outside of China has grown by a factor of 86 in that same time. It's a slower rate, but not surprisingly so given quarantine efforts.

 

[The Atheist]

The number of cases outside of China has been growing exponentially as well, just from a smaller starting point.

How are people taking it in Shanghai?

I gather lots of people are returning to work tomorrow in Shanghai & Beijing.

 

[Giordano]

One key element of the public health response to this sort of epidemic is the tracing of contacts. When one person is confirmed as having the disease, those who may have been in contact with them are traced and tested. A cluster of people on a trip together or working together, etc. presenting with similar symptoms also attracts the attention of public health leading to testing. In countries such as the USA, with sophisticated public health and not (yet) overwhelmed with too many cases, this can be surprisingly effective. So its not just relying on people presenting with respiratory symptoms offering themselves up for testing.