2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

[JoeMorgue]

Hell, I'm not even sure he can win.

Careful, we're not allowed to say that.

For record I don't have full confidence in any of the nominees, especially after last year when, again revisionist history aside, nobody thought Trump had a solid chance.

Let me put it this way. Raise your hand if you're going to bed early on election night regardless of who gets the nod because you're just sooooo confident they'll beat Trump? I know I'm not.

 

[Belz...]

Careful, we're not allowed to say that.

For record I don't have full confidence in any of the nominees, especially after last year when, again revisionist history aside, nobody thought Trump had a solid chance.

Let me put it this way. Raise your hand if you're going to bed early on election night regardless of who gets the nod because you're just sooooo confident they'll beat Trump? I know I'm not.

I'll be going to bed at the same time as usual. I'll sleep soundly, and then hopefully will wake up to good news in the morning.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Nobody wants Bernie to run third party.

Then stop telling the DNC how screwed up it is and acting shocked, shocked I say, that they like you less because of it and don't make things as easy for you.

Bernie isn't special he has to play the game same as everyone else and party loyalty, which he's already fighting an uphill battle since even you can't deny he's only a Democrat when he feels like it, is part of that.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Can the Crabby Bunny Brigade conclude its business so we can move back to the insanity that was John Kerry suggesting he run again to save the Democratic Party from itself? Good God, is the man that clueless he thinks anybody wants him back? We don't even want Hillary back and she was ten times better than him, and came so much closer to winning!

Sorry, Kerry, you're yesterday's jam.

Kerry made it clear he is NOT running. The story is only a claim someone overheard him make a comment on the phone. Which suggests that they only heard half of the conversation. Typical sensationalist news reporting.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...report-he-is-mulling-run-against-sanders.html

 

[Distracted1]

That's unfortunate. I rather like her and her political history.

It really looks like it's going to be either Biden or Sanders. I'd prefer Sanders to Biden, but I'm not sure he'd be a great president, as opposed to a good congresscritter. Hell, I'm not even sure he can win.

Warren has been my first choice for POTUS for some time now as well.

Lately, it seems she may be acting out of desperation, however, and seems to be saying "yes" to everything.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Stepping back from the current race and looking at the broader picture I'm legit surprised the DNC didn't really push to run Hillary again, really leaning into "But she really won the first time" narrative.

 

[varwoche]

I predict Bernie will win today, and I'll be no more confident in his electability as a result. Caucuses strongly favor candidates with fervent supporters. Just ask Pat Robertson, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Jesse Jackson.

 

[Belz...]

Warren has been my first choice for POTUS for some time now as well.

Lately, it seems she may be acting out of desperation, however, and seems to be saying "yes" to everything.

Yeah, it's one thing to be a congressperson and hold the course, but the presidential race seems to corrupt all but the staunchest ones.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I predict Bernie will win today, and I'll be no more confident in his electability as a result. Caucuses strongly favor candidates with fervent supporters. Just ask Pat Robertson, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Jesse Jackson.

He'll probably win today, and even more probably win in NH, which has a normal primary.

I suspect he'll come 2nd in SC, but how closely in 2nd will probably matter a lot. A narrow win for Biden in SC would be a bad sign.

But yeah, caucuses suck. Having Iowa go first sucks. Such is life. In a better world, every state votes on a ranked choice ballot at the same time, but that's not going to happen anytime soon.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think the Democrats do often forget that, outside of the general requirements of just being an overall decent guy and good leader in the eyes of the voters, Obama had the success he did because he was a, mostly, new figure. Nobody knew who Barack Obama was a year out from Super Tuesday.

....

All the excitement Obama engendered was not based on the fact he was an unknown.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I thought I had been making a joke saying that Biden comes across like John Kerry. I did not realize that John Kerry was actually putting himself forward as his stand-in..

Got any evidence this is true besides the sensationalist news?

Here we are again amplifying low information, no matter it be based on unsupported conclusions or on bot-like material.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Kerry said he isn't running and was misrepresented here.

He's backing Biden fully.

Yay, another voice of someone thinking these things through beyond the headlines.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's why I asked that if one intends to make such assertions regarding Sanders and the general election that they should provide evidence.

I had a longer post that was eaten by the void but it's easy enough for people to look for themselves at general election matchup polling for Trump vs Biden and Trump vs Sanders. You can even look at those matchups for individual states such as those which effectively won Trump the election in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and a Pennsylvania.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Is Biden currently still the best odds to beat Trump? Yes he is. Is Sanders currently still beating Trump both in general election and those states polling? Yes he is, and he's not too much lower than Biden.

Is the sky is falling attitude from the democratic establishment regarding a Sanders nomination silly? Yes it is.

TBF, those numbers have been going up and down depending on the time of day and who does the polling.

 

[Venom]

All the excitement Obama engendered was not based on the fact he was an unknown.

I don't think that's what Morgue meant.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Yay, another voice of someone thinking these things through beyond the headlines.

I mean, a bunch of deadlines to even get on the ballot have already passed. Anyone really considering entering the race has already made their decision.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Great. You and Belz too.

Shows how easy it is for corporations to make a threat look bad.

I have reread this like 10 times and can't figure out what you mean here. Care to rephrase it?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
No attack ads from centrists on those two, and pundits regularly championed both as good candidates.

This is the key factor in why none of the Trump vs [candidate] are valid at this point.

The campaign demonizing socialism has been building steam.

From 2018:
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/243362/meaning-socialism-americans-today.aspx

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
23% in U.S. understand socialism as referring to some form of equality
17% say socialism means government control of business and the economy
In 1949, 34% defined socialism as government control of business

From last year's SOTU address: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/07/whos-really-afraid-of-socialism/

Mehdi Hasan: Welcome to Deconstructed. I’m Mehdi Hasan. President Trump gave one of the longest State of the Union speeches ever on Tuesday night, and it was filled with the usual racist lies about immigrants, the usual belligerence and warmongering in relation to Iran, and the usual BS about making America great again. But he also took time out to slam the S-word. Yes, socialism.

Elizabeth Bruenig: It’s always a shock when you hear that kind of resurgence of Cold War rhetoric in a contemporary administration.

MH: That’s my guest today, Elizabeth Bruenig of the Washington Post, author of the op-eds “It’s time to give socialism a try” and “It’s time to reclaim ‘socialism’ from the dirty-word category”. Well, we’re going to try and do both on the show today. This week on Deconstructed, who’s really afraid of socialism?

For sure there will be even more socialism demonizing in tomorrow's SOTU speech, because it works for the GOP to use it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I don't think that's what Morgue meant.

It wasn't.

Sanders has already lost a primary to Hillary.

Hillary lost a primary to Obama.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had never been in primaries before the primaries they won and they both won their elections. Two terms.

I'm eyeballing the last 10 or so primaries and their candidates so maybe I missed one and I'll scrub the data to make 100% sure but it looks like if you lose a primary and they try to run you again... you don't generally win.

Voters don't get hard ons for a party's second choice. Bernie's lost a primary to the person who lost a primary and then just lost.

1976. Jimmy Carter wins the primary, having not been a candidate before. He wins the election.
1988. Bill Clinton wins the primary, having not been a candidate before. He wins the election.
2008. Barack Obama wins the primary, having not been a candidate before. He wins the election.

Gore was in the primary in 1992 and lost. He ran again in 2000 and lost the general election.

Hillary lost to Barack Obama in the primaries and then lost the general election in 2016.

No this isn't like mathematically certain; Mondale and Dukakis both lost on their first tries but nobody ever seems to win on their second or third.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The "Bernie is not electable" attack has always been hollow. Bernie polls 2nd, close behind Biden and ahead of the rest, in "vs Trump polls". Those that poll worse in these matchups have not had the same criticism applied by these pundits and political elites.

It's a bad faith attack, a post-hoc rationalization for their opposition to Bernie, his followers, and his politics. They wish to hang this "unelectable" smear around Bernie's neck to scare away potential voters.

Who is "they"?

And are you talking about the general or the primary or both?


One might also say some of the Bernie supporters are in denial about the effect demonizing of socialism will have in the general.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

There you go with that same strawman again.

Current polls shows Sanders with a lead over Trump in the general electorate.


IE, not just Democrats.

National polls are irrelevant - All that matters, as it always does, are those 15 or so swing states. I don't see a lot of data available for them, but this poll from November shows Sanders and Trump within the margin of error. Of course, this was 2 long months ago and a lot has happened since then!

Trump won 10 of those 15 states in 2016. And it's there that we will find out how much support there is for Sanders (or whoever the nominee is) and what we're calling the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

The major theme Rick Wilson harped on in his book on how to defeat Trump was make it a referendum on Trump, and not policy, while focusing almost entirely on the swing state voters. I don't know if that will work for Sanders, as Medicare for All might dominate in his campaign.

FYI, I'm voting for any Democrat regardless of the candidate.