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2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

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SezMe said:
Seems odd in light of the fact that GOPers "weren't seriously worried about what he would do..."

You want to explain that contradiction?
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It's almost as if their obsessive hostility to him were about not how he would do the job, but something else about him...
 
Delvo said:
It's almost as if their obsessive hostility to him were about not how he would do the job, but something else about him...
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Like all ex-Presidents, he benefits from being so much more reasonable than the current crop of extremist candidates from his party.
 
Brainster said:
Like all ex-Presidents, he benefits from being so much more reasonable than the current crop of extremist candidates from his party.
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That word, and "radical" have been so overused and abused by the right that they have little meaning any more.

You might say that only a radical, extremist conservative would use them anymore! :D :p :cool:
 
SezMe said:
That word, and "radical" have been so overused and abused by the right that they have little meaning any more.

You might say that only a radical, extremist conservative would use them anymore! :D :p :cool:
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We cons are more used to being described as reactionary, but yeah, the extremist label cuts both ways.
 
BobTheCoward said:
Any swing voter in a swing state essentially. Why even bother with a primary in California or New York?
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Believe it or not, the presidential election is not the only race that will appear on the primary ballots in those states--there are representatives and senators and local elections as well. And even though those states may not be competitive in the general election, they can certainly have tight races in the presidential primaries.

And there is another reason--money. States that have primaries and caucuses benefit from the money spent by the campaigns. Consider Amy Klobuchar. She's not a top-tier candidate; she's stuck back in the pack. And she has 18 offices and 80 staffers in Iowa. The top tier candidates (Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg) all have 20-24 offices, and it's not hard to guess that those candidates have more staffers per office.
 
In my state the presidential primary is separate from the regular primary. In the past it has generated little interest because of the late date but I see it's moved up to March this time. And it appears only the Dems are participating.
The regular primary isn't until August.
 
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Warren shakes the money tree but not the wine cave:

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign told supporters in an email on Friday that, so far, it has raised just over $17 million in the fourth quarter, a significant drop from her fundraising haul during the third quarter.

The memo asks backers to step up giving to the campaign.

“So far this quarter, we’ve raised a little over $17 million. That’s a good chunk behind where we were at this time last quarter,” it says.
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Bernie Sanders coming back strong. Democratic insiders on alert.

“It may have been inevitable that eventually you would have two candidates representing each side of the ideological divide in the party. A lot of smart people I’ve talked to lately think there’s a very good chance those two end up being Biden and Sanders,” said David Brock, a longtime Hillary Clinton ally who founded a pro-Clinton super PAC in the 2016 campaign. “They’ve both proven to be very resilient.”

Democratic insiders said they are rethinking Sanders’ bid for a few reasons: First, Warren has recently fallen in national and early state surveys. Second, Sanders has withstood the ups and downs of the primary, including a heart attack. At the same time, other candidates with once-high expectations, such as Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke, have dropped out or languished in single digits in the polls.

“I believe people should take him very seriously. He has a very good shot of winning Iowa, a very good shot of winning New Hampshire, and other than Joe Biden, the best shot of winning Nevada,” said Dan Pfeiffer, who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama. “He could build a real head of steam heading into South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”
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Joy of joys, the Far Left vs. Center Left dynamic again. Maybe it will prove to be as winning a formula as last time.
 
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d4m10n said:
Joy of joys, the Far Left vs. Center Left dynamic again. Maybe it will prove to be as winning a formula as last time.
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I think Sanders has a great chance of snatching back the Obama Trumpers.

It's funny though how Joe Biden is marginally the most favored among Obama-Trump voters, except for Trump himself.
 
Venom said:
I think Sanders has a great chance of snatching back the Obama Trumpers.
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Obama and Trump have so little in common I've more than a little trouble modeling this demographic. What did they both have to offer, aside from testicles?
 
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Hillary Clinton is a loathsome and dreadful person, but she undoubtedly had the necessary brains and skills to be an effective president. If she couldn't win against Trump, then Creepy Uncle Biden sure as hell won't be able to. He's got twenty percent the brains and none of the skills she has. It's time to abandon the mythical "centrism" --which is actually just subservience to corporate interests while mouthing crowd-pleasing mantras-- and go for candidates with actually desirable political agendas. Warren, for the sane, and Sanders, for the zany. Either would be better than Biden.
 
d4m10n said:
Obama and Trump have so little in common I've more than a little trouble modeling this demographic. What did they both have to offer, aside from testicles?
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If you ask Bernie campaign leaders they swear it was the economic anxiety.

If you look at the Washington Post study or the 2018 study here it looks much simpler.
 
d4m10n said:
Joy of joys, the Far Left vs. Center Left dynamic again. Maybe it will prove to be as winning a formula as last time.
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Mmm. First of all, Bernie isn't far left. Bernie is center left. Biden is maybe barely left of center. Maybe. Yes, you can try to argue that Bernie's far left for the US, but that's buying into the Republican and corporate media framing which lets them control the narrative to their own advantage, without much respect to fact or the whole picture.

Either way, one of the biggest problems for both Biden and Bernie is that they *both* have very significant unfavorable ratings within the Democratic Party and Democrat-leaners (more positive than negative, of course, but a lot of negative). And in an important difference to conservatives, fear-based motivation just isn't anywhere remotely close to as effective for liberals. Far more of them will be likely to just not vote. Warren's very low unfavorability rating is one of the reasons why I firmly favor her over both Bernie and Biden, either way.

Venom said:
I think Sanders has a great chance of snatching back the Obama Trumpers.

It's funny though how Joe Biden is marginally the most favored among Obama-Trump voters, except for Trump himself.
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d4m10n said:
Obama and Trump have so little in common I've more than a little trouble modeling this demographic. What did they both have to offer, aside from testicles?
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I would suggest that a desire for "change" was a likely a common notable motivating similarity. Both Obama and Trump were candidates for change, albeit in different fashions, and it's worth noting that Trump did claim during his campaigning to support a lot of notably more popular (and left-leaning by virtue of the GOP candidates pretty much all going right-wing extremist) positions than the Republicans were generally supporting. The increase in effectiveness of right-wing nonsense propaganda for a bunch of reasons fairly certainly played into the dynamic there significantly, though.
 
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