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UK - December 2019 General Election

I wasn't, I predicted 20 to 25 majority that was my wishful figure, hoping that opposition MPs would be able to block the terrible Bill's.
 
Turkeys didn't just vote for Xmas, they helped hang the decorations and buy the stuffing...
 
Assuming the exit poll is remotely correct, what the **** is wrong with people!

I despair. Corbyn must be the only twat who could lose to Boris.
 
I didn't believe the BBC exit poll for Scotland last time and neither did the pundits but it turned out to be right. Let's hope it's right this time too because again I don't believe it.
 
I knew it.
I've been saying all along in the Brexit thread. Most people I come across are pro Brexit and that's all they care about.
 
That's democracy for ya, folks.

I think that the question which most needs answering is this: how the hell did the Labour party fail to capitalise in this election? The answer, I'm afraid, is (IMO) down to only two things: 1) the muddy and undeclarative Labour policy on Brexit; and 2) Jeremy Corbyn (who's also the chief architect of (1).

Labout has a shocking recent record of electing unelectables (by the whole national electorate, that is) as leader. Even though it's a truism that we vote for MPs and their parties and not for leaders/potential PMs, it's well understood in psephological circles that the choice of leader plays a significant role in the voting intentions of that small number of swing voters in key marginals who make all the difference in any election*. Ed Miliband was a disastrous choice - very few of those swing voters could envisage him as a global statesperson; and in many ways Corbyn was even worse for the same reasons. And what's more, the takeover at the top by the hard left faction resulted in the disillusionment, defection or retirement of many moderate left MPs. Coming back round to (1), Labour is just as split on Brexit that the Conservatives - in fact, very probably much more so. And there was no strong message on Brexit presented to the electorate.

I would be very highly confident that had a statesmanlike moderate such as, say, Chuka Umunna, been installed as Labour leader in 2017, Johnson very probably wouldn't even have tabled a GE for today: he'd have known pretty well that any GE would result in a fair-sized Labour majority.

(And always remember: the good fellows of the US elected the current Presidential incumbent....)


* i.e. there is a vast majority of the electorate who has always and will always vote for whichever political party they're aligned with. It's only ever the relatively tiny number of swing voters in marginal seats who make all the difference.
 
Holy ****** Tories look like they are going to win a landslide!

And look at the SNP. 55 seats! That’s almost all of them, right? Scotland will be independent before long.
 
LondonJohn said:
That's democracy for ya, folks.

I think that the question which most needs answering is this: how the hell did the Labour party fail to capitalise in this election? The answer, I'm afraid, is (IMO) down to only two things: 1) the muddy and undeclarative Labour policy on Brexit; and 2) Jeremy Corbyn (who's also the chief architect of (1).

Labout has a shocking recent record of electing unelectables (by the whole national electorate, that is) as leader. Even though it's a truism that we vote for MPs and their parties and not for leaders/potential PMs, it's well understood in psephological circles that the choice of leader plays a significant role in the voting intentions of that small number of swing voters in key marginals who make all the difference in any election*. Ed Miliband was a disastrous choice - very few of those swing voters could envisage him as a global statesperson; and in many ways Corbyn was even worse for the same reasons. And what's more, the takeover at the top by the hard left faction resulted in the disillusionment, defection or retirement of many moderate left MPs. Coming back round to (1), Labour is just as split on Brexit that the Conservatives - in fact, very probably much more so. And there was no strong message on Brexit presented to the electorate.

I would be very highly confident that had a statesmanlike moderate such as, say, Chuka Umunna, been installed as Labour leader in 2017, Johnson very probably wouldn't even have tabled a GE for today: he'd have known pretty well that any GE would result in a fair-sized Labour majority.

(And always remember: the good fellows of the US elected the current Presidential incumbent....)


* i.e. there is a vast majority of the electorate who has always and will always vote for whichever political party they're aligned with. It's only ever the relatively tiny number of swing voters in marginal seats who make all the difference.
Click to expand...

I don’t know. Will Chuka even keep his seat?
 
Darat said:
So how long before the BBC will be in effective destroyed?
Click to expand...


Ah, time for the harbingers of doom!!

I'm most certainly no fan of either Johnson or rabid free-marketeering, but there's no doubt whatsoever that the funding model, structure, size and remit of the BBC all need to change significantly over the next ten years at most. The world is not how it was in, say, 1960. Public sector broadcasting, and the argument for its scope and strength, is a gigantically different ball game away from true utility public services (most notably the NHS). And in a multi-platform universe, it's both regressive and anticompetitive for the BBC to carry on existing in its current form with its current funding model.

My own preference would be for there to be a core BBC public service broadcaster, funded either directly by government or by some sort of individual additional taxation (but at a fraction of the current £155pa), in which the BBC would provide free-to-air news, current affairs, educational and children's education-led programming. And then there would be various tiers of opt-in subscription models for other types of programming such as light entertainment, drama or sport.
 
If there is to be a Tory majority then I am holding out for the small crumbs of comfort that Boris and Rees-Mogg losing their seats might bring...
 
angrysoba said:
I don’t know. Will Chuka even keep his seat?
Click to expand...



He prob will I think, but of course for a different party (LibDem). That ship has long since sailed for Labour. But what happens now will be of great interest. If the exit polls are anything near accurate, there's absolutely no way that Corbyn, McDonnell and the other hard-left leadership can stay on. I also think it signals the end (for a generation or so) of hard-left influence at the top of Labour.

I have a few thoughts on who might emerge victorious in the inevitable leadership contest (including a couple of dark horses), but so much of it - crazily, under Lab's current party-leader election system - depends on who's secretly promised what to whom, especially in respect of the cluster of huge trades unions who can swing the vote (as they did with Ed Miliband in 2010.....)
 
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