2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

[kellyb]

You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.

Yeah, just ask Obama or Clinton.

 

[kellyb]

Probably so.

It's the exact same plan. Just different proposed financing mechanisms (and Sanders hasn't even committed to any yet - he just threw out a bunch of ways revenue can be generated and said they could be used in some combination.)

I suspect if nominated, Liz will shift to saying she's not married to abolishing private insurance, if that's not what the people want (and only a little over 50% do.) The main purpose of banning insurance (if I'm understanding correctly) is so insurance companies don't spike doctor pay to lure doctors away from working for the public system. The secondary purpose is to gain monopsony power, so costs can actually be controlled/reduced all along the health care "supply chain" (including pharmaceuticals, radiology companies, lab companies, for-profit and non-public hospitals, etc and so on).

Taking the current exorbitant profiteering out really is crucial, unless we decide to be totally okay for forever with paying twice as much per person for health care as people in every other developed nation.

Banning insurance isn't the only way to fix those problems, tho. It's the simplest way, but it's not the only way.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Who's*.

The Ukraine.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I really don't care that Trump hates dogs although it is hardly surprising. It's that he hates people or at least anyone who refuses to stroke him that I find despicable.

I too ABSOLUTELY don't believe in any deities and yet find myself using references to God. I mean what else are you going to say during sex?

Something about a doggy?

 

[Craig4]

You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.

Not in Virginia on Wehnesday they didn't.

 

[The_Animus]

Really? Here's what the census has to say:



Sound like I proved your point? Look at the chart underneath that paragraph. The % of 18-29 year olds who reported voted in 2016 was a whopping 46.1% of that cohort. Where does that rank in presidential elections since 1980? In percentage terms it's sixth out of the last ten.

That is some good info. I would argue that 2016 won't show an increase because frankly most people didn't think Trump would win. Post Trump win was a wake up call and we've had a few years to see the GOP stop even trying to hide their corruption.

https://www.census.gov/library/stor...8-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.

If you want to look at the last 10 non-presidential years for comparison there is a chart farther down the page here:

http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics

2014's rates are basically the same for the past 10 off year elections which means 2018 was a statistically significant jump.

Now this is only a single data point. And because presidential elections have a higher turnout in general, it does seem unlikely that we will see that high of an increase in the 2020 election. But I'd bet the 19-29 year old vote in 2020 will be as high or higher than in any of the past 10 presidential elections.

 

[Aridas]

Hmm.

The 2018 Election Story That Supports the "Biden Is Running in the Wrong Primary" meme

And it’s gone on from there, but I want to focus on Joe’s claim that he’s “fought for the Democratic party my whole career,” and that he knows “who we stand with,” because in the last election cycle, 2018, three weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden was paid $200,000 to give a speech to a GOP crowd, and in that speech he lavishly praised GOP Representative Fred Upton, R (MI-06) who was in the tightest race of his career.

Again, Biden would be overwhelmingly better than Trump in nearly every way, but... stuff like this makes me really not want him to be the candidate.

 

[Mumbles]

Hmm.

The 2018 Election Story That Supports the "Biden Is Running in the Wrong Primary" meme



Again, Biden would be overwhelmingly better than Trump in nearly every way, but... stuff like this makes me really not want him to be the candidate.

I mean, Dolt 45 is a grifting white supremacist, so picking nearly anyone over him is reasonable.

And honestly, I'd consider Weld over Gabbard, Buttigeig, or Yang - these three also strike me as third-rate grifters, while, having spoken to Weld, he's actually a good guy.

...Oh, also, above Bloomberg, assuming he enters the race...

Other than that, I'd pick even a goof like Biden over the outright white supremacist party that the GOP has become. My main consideration, even for Weld, is that he could pull them back into actual conservatism, instead of simple-minded hatred of "the other". And since they don't seem interested in simply letting others live well so much as actively harming others...well, we have to fight, yet again.

 

[Aridas]

I mean, Dolt 45 is a grifting white supremacist, so picking nearly anyone over him is reasonable.

And honestly, I'd consider Weld over Gabbard, Buttigeig, or Yang - these three also strike me as third-rate grifters, while, having spoken to Weld, he's actually a good guy.

...Oh, also, above Bloomberg, assuming he enters the race...

Other than that, I'd pick even a goof like Biden over the outright white supremacist party that the GOP has become. My main consideration, even for Weld, is that he could pull them back into actual conservatism, instead of simple-minded hatred of "the other". And since they don't seem interested in simply letting others live well so much as actively harming others...well, we have to fight, yet again.

Mmm. A conversation about Weld would likely be much more interesting if he were to actually secure the Republican nomination. My knowledge of him is limited, so I'm willing to keep an open mind, though. With that said, I also think that the Party of Trump needs refuted in a completely unambiguous way at the ballot box, so I do admit that the bar for him will be higher than it was for, say, Romney.

 

[Brainster]

I thought by this point we would be subtracting candidates weekly; instead we are adding them. Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts, is thinking of putting his name in play. I don't see a good lane for him to run in, though. The black alternative to Buttigieg if Biden implodes? Booker and Harris seem to have that role filled.

 

[kellyb]

Is anyone else sensing that the era of political campaign "implosions" is probably mostly over?

I think the internet has maybe killed CNN/MSNBC/ABC's ability to determine 90% (or whatever) of political reality and make things like the Howard Dean "scream" a death sentence for a candidate.

I think the super-high-information voter demographic, while still extremely small relative to low-info people, has probably skyrocketed, too. (maybe from one in 300 people before, to maybe one in 40 people now? Something like that? Enough for them to have some influence now?)

Something seems to have happened, though. Maybe the echo chambers have just make the public functionally stupider, or most people much more biased. Or maybe it was firing up the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that ripped a hole in spacetime, and so everything is just kinda shifted into the 5th dimension a tad now.

I dunno, but I don't see Biden "imploding" unless something actually extreme and extremely unlikely happens.

 

[Delvo]

And perpetually trying to make out with 11-year-old girls in public doesn't count as "extreme".

The biggest factor in his still lingering (although at least not leading anymore, just declining gradually) might be the stubbornness of the myth that only a Republican calling himself a Democrat can possibly beat a Republican in the general election... but the proof that that's the opposite of reality is piled so deep that that myth's stubbornness against all evidence is its own separate mystery requiring its own separate explanation, and I'm not fond of invoking one mystery to explain another. (And another lesser mystery tied in to it: if that's the only kind of "Democrat" who can beat a Republican, then what's the point of beating the Republican anyway? You know he'll still just end up joining them anyway, so it's the same as if the Republican wins.)

 

[acbytesla]

And perpetually trying to make out with 11-year-old girls in public doesn't count as "extreme".

The biggest factor in his still lingering (although at least not leading anymore, just declining gradually) might be the stubbornness of the myth that only a Republican calling himself a Democrat can possibly beat a Republican in the general election... but the proof that that's the opposite of reality is piled so deep that that myth's stubbornness against all evidence is its own separate mystery requiring its own separate explanation, and I'm not fond of invoking one mystery to explain another. (And another lesser mystery tied in to it: if that's the only kind of "Democrat" who can beat a Republican, then what's the point of beating the Republican anyway? You know he'll still just end up joining them anyway, so it's the same as if the Republican wins.)

The LAST TRUE LIBERAL PRESIDENT was LBJ and he really screwed up on Vietnam.

 

[SezMe]

I thought by this point we would be subtracting candidates weekly; instead we are adding them. Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts, is thinking of putting his name in play. I don't see a good lane for him to run in, though. The black alternative to Buttigieg if Biden implodes? Booker and Harris seem to have that role filled.

Pure speculation: He thinks Warren will get the nod and he knows she is not popular with blacks so he's running for VP on a Warren/Patrick ticket to bolster her cred with minorities.

 

[The Shrike]

Dem candidate discussions

[*]Dem candidates ... not so problematic as the shrill, uncharismatic Hillary ...

1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNC forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.

 

[ponderingturtle]

1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNCprimaries forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.

FIFY

 

[pgwenthold]

1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNC forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.

Is Bernie a democrat yet?

 

[pgwenthold]

FIFY

Yeah, damn that DNC insisting that the person who got the most votes in the primary actually be the nominee.

What are they thinking, not getting behind a candidate who doesn't claim to be a democrat (unless it's convenient for him)?

 

[Brainster]

Pure speculation: He thinks Warren will get the nod and he knows she is not popular with blacks so he's running for VP on a Warren/Patrick ticket to bolster her cred with minorities.

Actually that would be unconstitutional. It's a little known quirk of the Constitution that the President and the VP cannot reside in the same state. There was a little flutter about this when Bush and Cheney ran on the same ticket; Cheney had been a registered voter in Texas, but he changed his registration back to Wyoming (his home state).

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Is Bernie a democrat yet?

Is that a requirement for getting the Democratic Party nomination?

Yeah, damn that DNC insisting that the person who got the most votes in the primary actually be the nominee.

What are they thinking, not getting behind a candidate who doesn't claim to be a democrat (unless it's convenient for him)?

Do you agree or disagree that the party should put a thumb on the scales when someone who isn't a card-carrying member is in the primary? (I make no claim as to whether or not that happened, but your statement can be easily interpreted to be defending the idea in concept).