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2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

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Brainster said:
Meanwhile, half the Squad (the more famous half) is endorsing Bernie Sanders. AOC and Ilhan Omar announced their support today; Pressley and Tlaib are holding back for now. Someone said that perhaps AOC was making a mistake by endorsing now, but it's actually pretty savvy. It gives Bernie a slight boost just when he needs it, and if he fizzles out and she has to later endorse Warren, I don't think it will hurt her. Keep in mind she was a volunteer for Bernie in 2016, so I doubt there will be bitterness on Warren's part if she ends up being the nominee. And of course she's not going to support Biden until he's guaranteed the nomination.
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that's the way I see it.
 
dudalb said:
Marraine Williamson, who has been cut from the debates for not having enough support in the polls to make her a viable candidate, just did an self pitying ,high school drama queen level WAPO op ed piece in which she pretty much declared the Democratic party a corrupt, evil organization because she did not have a place in the debates.
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She'll fit right in with some Sanders supporters, then.
 
varwoche said:
Williamson's complaint that the Dems limited the number of candidates participating in the debates...

So what. This needs to be done. If you don't limit the number, you get a clown show like the 135 people who ran for governor of CA in 2003, including Gary Coleman.
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acbytesla said:
How she ever got a place on the stage is beyond me. It's definitely time to cull the herd.
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Over a hundred Democrats also filed the official forms to run for President, too, so they're technically "candidates" until they officially withdraw, close their back-of-the-barber-shop "offices", and send home their four volunteers apiece. I'm sure Williamson sees nothing wrong with having excluded them all along.
 
Brainster said:
Meanwhile, half the Squad (the more famous half) is endorsing Bernie Sanders. AOC and Ilhan Omar announced their support today; Pressley and Tlaib are holding back for now. Someone said that perhaps AOC was making a mistake by endorsing now, but it's actually pretty savvy. It gives Bernie a slight boost just when he needs it, and if he fizzles out and she has to later endorse Warren, I don't think it will hurt her. Keep in mind she was a volunteer for Bernie in 2016, so I doubt there will be bitterness on Warren's part if she ends up being the nominee. And of course she's not going to support Biden until he's guaranteed the nomination.
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Should we remind everyone that the members of the Squad are Superdelegates? :D
 
There is no harm in supporting Sanders at this point. And if Trump survives this few months without meltdown, Sanders is a better debater against Trump than the rest. Warren has to answer about the taxes.

My opinion on healthcare: we will expand regular Medicare to all who have no other insurance available. You will have to take it. You will still have to buy a supplement to get full care. Employer run healthcare stays as it is.
 
Craig4 said:
That might put Mayor Pete in a good position to be king maker. He could swing his support to Warren or Biden in exchange for the VP or secretary of something position.
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Polling numbers are not negotiating leverage.

Delegates are.
 
Tero said:
There is no harm in supporting Sanders at this point. And if Trump survives this few months without meltdown, Sanders is a better debater against Trump than the rest. Warren has to answer about the taxes.

My opinion on healthcare: we will expand regular Medicare to all who have no other insurance available. You will have to take it. You will still have to buy a supplement to get full care. Employer run healthcare stays as it is.
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I think we also have to try to bring down the obesity and diabetes mellitus epidemic in the country. They are big contributors to healthcare costs. I mean there were huge campaigns against tobacco a few decades ago and it brought down rates among young people didn't it.
 
Venom said:
I think we also have to try to bring down the obesity and diabetes mellitus epidemic in the country. They are big contributors to healthcare costs. I mean there were huge campaigns against tobacco a few decades ago and it brought down rates among young people didn't it.
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Amen. Much of my current work involves data analytics of medical records concentrating on the patient population with diabetes. Nobody ever seems to just have diabetes, it's always diabetes plus ten other problems arising from the diabetes. The diagnoses snowball. Diabetes affects circulation and kidneys and eyes and joints, and extra weight magnifies practically every other problem you could have. Controlling diabetes is absolutely vital to overall health. It's a monster.
 
dudalb said:
Marraine Williamson, who has been cut from the debates for not having enough support in the polls to make her a viable candidate, just did an self pitying ,high school drama queen level WAPO op ed piece in which she pretty much declared the Democratic party a corrupt, evil organization because she did not have a place in the debates.
She declared the Evil Democratic bosses were shutting down the process too early.
Uh, how many people did we have in the debate last night?
Go back to peddling new age crap, Marriane. You could not get enough supporters to get a place in the debate and are now embarrassing yourself with whining about it.
The herd needed culling, and people who had a lot more chance then you ever had have gracefully dropped out.
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Do you have a link? I would be interested in reading it. From the beginning, I never saw her has a viable possibility. I could not get past her silliness, her tainting every position with her woo-ness.
 
kellyb said:
I don't think it was dumb. She's assuming that between her and Bernie, one would drop out eventually, and she's showing "the left" that her opening negotiation on healthcare isn't going to be starting off by conceding territory to the right, which is something most progressives worry about.
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That may well be but her comment must be judged assuming she is the Dem nominee. In that case the GOP will run brutal ads stating that Warren is going to take away your insurance. It'll be effective. She should have taken a more moderate approach.
 
Venom said:
I think we also have to try to bring down the obesity and diabetes mellitus epidemic in the country. They are big contributors to healthcare costs. I mean there were huge campaigns against tobacco a few decades ago and it brought down rates among young people didn't it.
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Sure, but you don't win an election by saying, "Hey, tubbo, you fat slob, vote for me."
 
SezMe said:
That may well be but her comment must be judged assuming she is the Dem nominee. In that case the GOP will run brutal ads stating that Warren is going to take away your insurance. It'll be effective. She should have taken a more moderate approach.
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It could even be the fatal mistake that gives us a second Trump term.

And for what? It's not as if there's an ice cube's chance in hell. In order for Medicare for all to be enacted... (1) Warren becomes POTUS (2) Dems take senate (3) Dems get rid of filibuster.

And then it still wouldn't happen! I'm certain that moderates would sink it.
 
SezMe said:
Sure, but you don't win an election by saying, "Hey, tubbo, you fat slob, vote for me."
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In many cases you can't even persuade a person to save their own declining health. "Okay, so your kidneys are shot, you're going blind, and now we need to amputate your foot. Do you think you could think about changing your diet a little? Oh, you'd rather wait until a company invents a miracle cure drug? Okay. That'll be thirteen hundred dollars for treatment today, see you next month."

People are not always acting in their own best interests.
 
TragicMonkey said:
In many cases you can't even persuade a person to save their own declining health. "Okay, so your kidneys are shot, you're going blind, and now we need to amputate your foot. Do you think you could think about changing your diet a little? Oh, you'd rather wait until a company invents a miracle cure drug? Okay. That'll be thirteen hundred dollars for treatment today, see you next month."

People are not always acting in their own best interests.
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My 79 year old father has smoked since he was about 12. A number of years ago he developed throat cancer, went through radiation treatment, and made a full recovery. He quit smoking afterward ... for about a year. Then he saw the California Proposition 65 warning on an aerosol product he used in his woodworking, said "Hey, I'll bet that's what caused my cancer, not the cigarettes", and started smoking again.
 
I finally watched this weeks debates on a repeat on one of the C Span channels last night.
(I had only seen clips and read about it)/
Looks to me like Warren was blind sided by the Foreign Policy questions and fell back on stock replies and did not come off looking good on foreign policy. She seems unprepared for that, and she should not have been. even if Foreign Policy was not one of the scheduled topics, the events in Syria guaranteed it would be a topic, and she should have known that. She will have to do better then that to both get the nod and beat Trump.
 
538 musings on moderate/independent/undecided voters:

The upshot of all this is that if you’re a campaign trying to appeal to independents, moderates or undecided voters — or a concerned citizen trying to make sense of these groups in the context of an election — policy and ideology aren’t good frames of reference. There just isn’t much in terms of policy or ideology that unites these groups.

Footnote: Of course, one could make the same ideological dispersion points about Democratic and especially Republican voters, who also display lots of underlying diversity (hence the fights during party primaries). But Democratic and Republican voters are ultimately reliable partisans. They vote for the party, and policy comes second. Their votes are not up for grabs in the general election.

Anybody who claims to have the winning formula for winning moderate, independent or undecided voters is making things up. Perhaps more centrist policies will appeal to some voters in each of these categories — but so will more extreme policies.

Footnote: Absent any better strategy, going modestly left on economics is advisable. All sub-groups have more voters on the economic left than the economic right.

And come election day, these potential swing voters may not ultimately care all that much about policy. They don’t tend to identify themselves based on ideology, and they don’t follow politics all that closely. They’re more likely to decide based on whatever random events happen at the last minute (like, say, a letter from the FBI director). These are even harder to measure and generalize about. (The good news for pundits and campaigns is that they leave even more room for open speculation and political fortune-telling.)

But OK, one final point needs clarification here — maybe we’re being too literal: Maybe what pundits are really getting at when they talk about appealing to “moderates,” “independents” or undecided voters is the “middle-est” middle of the electorate — in terms of vote choice, partisanship and ideology. Maybe they’re talking about people who identify as moderate, independent and are still undecided on 2020 — the part of the Venn diagram above where all three circles overlap.

First, this is a really small group — only 2.4 percent of the electorate falls in all three buckets. And even this super small middle of the middle is … you guessed it … all over the ideological map. Rare as these voters are, anybody who talks about winning over undecided, independent, moderate voters should first address the question: which undecided, independent, moderate voters?
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Linky.
 
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