2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

[Delphic Oracle]

Mayor Pete gets the "he's the new Obama" treatment at the New Republic:



Followed by a pretty flimsy bit of horserace analysis:



The long resume is the reason the "high-SAT-score wing of the Democratic electorate" has fallen for him. But there is a much larger wing (with some overlap) of the Democratic electorate that has not fallen for him: African-Americans.

Look at any of the polls. The latest poll of South Carolina has Buttigieg with about 4% overall support, all coming from white people; Buttigieg actually got no support at all from blacks in that poll.

Off the point a bit, I know, but...what are our chances of winning any electoral votes from South Carolina?

We haven't gotten over 45% this century and haven't won the state since the Civil Rights Era party flip.

ETA: I recall this issue last cycle, too. Beware candidates with high support across the solid south. Delegate projections look nice, but where those delegates are from matters. Because of winner-take-all elector votes, we end up going with a candidate that essentially has a 50-60 point handicap.

 

[The Atheist]

Confirmation that Bernie suffered a heart attack, but it looks like it won't be enough to get him to throw in the towel.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12273904

Stubborn old git.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I was discussing public perception of Presidents (and candidates) health.

Regardless of their respective ages, a report of a heart operation is going to have an impact on those perceptions.

Trumps behavioral disorders (which I don't dispute) are effectively non-sequitur to the specific point I was making.

I'm not sure where you could possibly have arrived at the idea I'm a Trump supporter and again it would be entirely off the point anyways.

I'll just add this to my mountain of examples in my own discussions or those I've observed where the go-to way to disagree is to accuse the other party of secretly or unwittingly supporting Trump. It's just the current vogue for how to say "heretic!"

Oh puhleese. What did I supposedly make up?

And yet you support the mentally ill 70+ year old Trump?

Perhaps I'm misreading your post.
There's misreading and then there's making stuff up out of nowhere.

What did I supposedly make up?

 

[Brainster]

Oh puhleese. What did I supposedly make up?

What did I supposedly make up?

My guess is that you made up his support for Trump. Consider his post a few above this one where he asks:

Off the point a bit, I know, but...what are our chances of winning any electoral votes from South Carolina?

We haven't gotten over 45% this century and haven't won the state since the Civil Rights Era party flip.

 

[Brainster]

Off the point a bit, I know, but...what are our chances of winning any electoral votes from South Carolina?

We haven't gotten over 45% this century and haven't won the state since the Civil Rights Era party flip.

ETA: I recall this issue last cycle, too. Beware candidates with high support across the solid south. Delegate projections look nice, but where those delegates are from matters. Because of winner-take-all elector votes, we end up going with a candidate that essentially has a 50-60 point handicap.

There are a lot of African Americans (~13%) in this country, but very few in Iowa (3.4%), New Hampshire (1.1%) and Nevada (8.8%), the three earliest states. If Buttigieg can't win black votes in South Carolina (27.3%), I doubt if he's going to pick them up in states with significant black populations like Florida (16.1%) Ohio (12.3%) and Pennsylvania (11%), which most definitely are states that the Democrats had better be strong in.

The New Republic writer seemed to ignore the obvious. While Buttigieg and Biden may both be moderates, if Biden falters, there is little reason to believe that Buttigieg will pick up his supporters, because so many of them are African-American.

 

[angrysoba]

Confirmation that Bernie suffered a heart attack, but it looks like it won't be enough to get him to throw in the towel.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12273904

Stubborn old git.

I think he is a really admirable conviction politician. Whether all his ideas are good and whether all his strategies are good is another issue, but he seems very genuine in his intentions.

Yeah, yeah, so was Hitler. Okay, I’ll add that at least his politics seem to be well-meaning. He isn’t a ******* **** like some politicians.

 

[Brainster]

Mediaite covers a lie that Warren has been telling on the trail, about getting fired from her dream job as a special-needs teacher because she was pregnant:

“I still remember the 4 to 6-year-olds, I still remember the faces of every one of them,” Warren said. “I remember some of our lessons, the things we worked on, I remember our successes, and our failures. I loved that work, and I would probably still be doing in that work today, but my story has some more turns.”

“By the end of the first year, I was visibly pregnant, and the principal did what principals did in those days,” she said. “Wished me luck, and hired someone else for the job. Okay.”

The problem is that in a televised 2007 interview with another Harvard Law School prof, she told a substantially different story:

I was married at nineteen and graduated from college after I’d married, and my first year post-graduation I worked in a public school system with the children with disabilities. I did that for a year, and then that summer I didn’t have the education courses, so I was on an “emergency certificate,” it was called. I went back to graduate school and took a couple of courses in education and said, “I don’t think this is going to work out for me.”

So instead of getting fired by some neanderthal principal, she decided not to finish the courses required to get a permanent teaching certificate.

 

[The Atheist]

You can just about close this thread now - with Bernie's heart attack and Biden's support waning, Liz is charging like a good racehorse at the 300m.

5 of the 6 latest polls have Warren leading the field, and her support hasn't stopped growing yet.

Go, the Cougar!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mediaite covers a lie that Warren has been telling on the trail, about getting fired from her dream job as a special-needs teacher because she was pregnant:

The problem is that in a televised 2007 interview with another Harvard Law School prof, she told a substantially different story:

So instead of getting fired by some neanderthal principal, she decided not to finish the courses required to get a permanent teaching certificate.

The GOP has a candidate that lies about everything even when he doesn't gain from it and you guys have the gall to nitpick what Warren remembers from 50 years ago.

Trump claimed his father was born in a small town in Germany. Who gets it mixed up where one's father was born?

 

[Venom]

Confirmation that Bernie suffered a heart attack, but it looks like it won't be enough to get him to throw in the towel.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12273904

Stubborn old git.

Shows his grit and determination.

Go Sanders!@

 

[acbytesla]

The GOP has a candidate that lies about everything even when he doesn't gain from it and you guys have the gall to nitpick what Warren remembers from 50 years ago.

Trump claimed his father was born in a small town in Germany. Who gets it mixed up where one's father was born?

Its quite interesting isn't it?

I mean Trump lies literally about everything. And that's not hyperbole. I think he's closing in on 15,000 lies since taking office. That's more than a dozen every day for three years running and Warren says why she stopped teaching disabled children 30 years ago which might not be totally accurate and she's the one with an honesty issue?

 

[SezMe]

You have a good point, acbytesla, but also consider that the right has completely discounted Trump's lying. By now it's just more, "Ho-hum". Conversely, the left has no such ethical black hole so even accusations of lying have much more potential to get traction.

 

[Aridas]

"Everyone lies! You only caring about Republican lies means that you are biased and partisan!"

 

[acbytesla]

You have a good point, acbytesla, but also consider that the right has completely discounted Trump's lying. By now it's just more, "Ho-hum". Conversely, the left has no such ethical black hole so even accusations of lying have much more potential to get traction.

Maybe. But Biden is so middle of the road. His policy proposals don't really excite anyone in the Democratic world. I'll vote for him in a second if he's the nominee but I'm sick of the Democratic politician who plays it safe. And while I don't think he did a damn thing wrong with Ukraine, his response has been fumbled. He should be attacking Trump like a Pit Bull not this likeable Joe routine.

I give Warren credit. She has more policy proposals than the rest of the field combined. She's a worker and not afraid to fight and I know she's not fighting for Citicorp. Frankly, I wanted a white male middle America candidate. I really hoped Beto would be more than he has shown. Now that sounds like I'm racist and sexist. I'm not. I just want to win. And Booker was my favorite candidate but not my choice.

 

[acbytesla]

"Everyone lies! You only caring about Republican lies means that you are biased and partisan!"

Everyone "occasionally" lies. But there is one candidate who lies as often as he tells the truth. Huuuge difference.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

You can just about close this thread now - with Bernie's heart attack and Biden's support waning, Liz is charging like a good racehorse at the 300m.

5 of the 6 latest polls have Warren leading the field, and her support hasn't stopped growing yet.

Go, the Cougar!

It's all very convenient for Warren, isn't it?
Almost too convenient....
[Insert crazy Conspiracy here]

 

[Aridas]

It's all very convenient for Warren, isn't it?
Almost too convenient....
[Insert crazy Conspiracy here]

The Deep State is working to trick all those gullible, violent, and murderous Demonrats into thinking that they actually chose her, rather than the Deep State. If they win, they want to go all in on murdering babies, shuttling in illegals to rig all the voting across those open borders, taking away our power and our country from us, the best people.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"Everyone lies! You only caring about Republican lies means that you are biased and partisan!"

Quantity and quality are at issue.

 

[Travis]

It is an interesting question where Biden's POC support goes if he falters. I know that anecdotally there seems to be some animus towards both Bernie and Warren in the POC electorate, Buttigieg is viewed rather skeptically because of his mayoral decisions, Tulsi is just a crazy Russian plant. Harris would seem a natural fit but there has been a considerable propaganda campaign to severe that before it even began by painting her as some whackjob prosecutor that loves throwing people in prison for no reason. How successful that smear campaign has been could be the deciding factor in this whole thing down the road.


Oh, and there is Yang who has been building some stealthy support in the polls. Which, I'll admit, sorta surprises me.

 

[kellyb]

Oh, and there is Yang who has been building some stealthy support in the polls. Which, I'll admit, sorta surprises me.

From 1% to 3% over the last few months.

Skyrocketing.