So honest views, how far behind is the Trump impeachment proceedings going to put the campaigns? Or we going to see a front runner solidify soon or are Biden and Warren going to fight it out Super Tuesday basically?
I don't see the impeachment hearings having much of an impact on the race, at least not on the Democrat's side, unless it really entangles Biden as well. I do see that
Buttigieg is positioning himself as the moderate alternative to Biden, so maybe there is some concern, or maybe Mayor Pete has reached desperation stage.
We are now only three months out from Iowa. I would not expect any of the top six to drop out before then--Biden, Warren, Bernie, Buttigieg, Harris and Booker. I would not be surprised if everybody else decided to spend the holidays at home.
Warren has a good chance to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and I think after the latter we'd be down to her, Bernie and Biden. Biden would still have every reason to remain in the battle; he's got South Carolina. Bernie's a wild card here; he
might fold. Based on form, I'd guess not.
Either way I think you've got the makings of a dogfight. Biden appears to have a pretty good grip on the African-Americans. And I don't think the billionaires and tech guys and Hollywood are all going to lay off Warren.
But still, Warren pretty much is where the new Democratic party is. Biden's problem is that he represents the old center of the party. I was reading an interesting
article on NPR how dramatically white liberal attitudes on racial issues had changed in just the last decade.
For example, as recently as 2012, white liberals were as likely to say that "Blacks who can’t get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition," as they were to agree that, "Racial discrimination is the main reason why many black people can’t get ahead these days." Today, they are three times as likely to agree with the latter statement. Note in particular that the trend for that change change predates (presages?) the rise of Trump in 2016.
The one that amazed me was the one about the Confederate flag. Would you believe that in 1995 or so about 70% of White Democrats and about 35% of Black Democrats said that it was a symbol of Southern pride rather than a symbol of racism?
