2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

[The Atheist]

With the Ukraine/Hunter Biden angle, do we all agree that Joe Biden's campaign is dead in the water?

I've been calling it for months, but we're now at the stage where thinking Biden has any chance may as well break out the healing crystals and get the positivity potpourri cooking.

Momentum wins nominations - and the evidence is abundantly clear, unless people don't remember Obama's and Trump's campaigns.

Biden's momentum is all the wrong way, while Liz is on the up, and strongly.

A smart party would see every known Democrat coalescing behind Warren and saying "This is who we need" and concentrate on beating the pulsating piece of human waste in the White House.

Also, she needs to get my bae Lizzo on stage with her. All bases covered.

 

[kellyb]

Wall Street is really upset about the prospect of the "two cents on each dollar of wealth over $50 million" tax, looks like:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-worried-warren-presidency-analyst-153648886.html

Investors and analysts have voiced unease at the prospect of a Warren presidency. In July, for example, KBW said a Warren Wall Street plan hinted at “central planning.” In an April survey conducted by RBC, investors viewed Warren as the least stocks-friendly Democratic candidate, edging out Senator Bernie Sanders by 51% to 38%.
“The ultimate irony” is that Trump may be “going after the wrong opponent,” Valliere said. “His scorched Earth assault on Biden comes as the former vice president is slipping into second place in the fight to win the nomination. Warren is the candidate Trump needs to worry about; simply calling her ‘Pocahontas’ will not be sufficient to stop her momentum.”

 

[The Atheist]

Wall Street is really upset about the prospect of the "two cents on each dollar of wealth over $50 million" tax, looks like:

Warren is the candidate Trump needs to worry about; simply calling her ‘Pocahontas’ will not be sufficient to stop her momentum.”

It's all adding up.

Can we get a range of hats with Make America Liz! on them.

In fact, an even better option would be to embrace "Pocahontas" and get hats with that embroided on them, or: Pocahontas coming to get yo fat white ass!

 

[kellyb]

I've been calling it for months, but we're now at the stage where thinking Biden has any chance may as well break out the healing crystals and get the positivity potpourri cooking.

Momentum wins nominations - and the evidence is abundantly clear, unless people don't remember Obama's and Trump's campaigns.

Biden's momentum is all the wrong way, while Liz is on the up, and strongly.

He has no chance of getting the 50+% needed to win the nomination outright.

How it could go down at a contested convention, of if Sanders drops out right before or early in the primaries is up in the air, though, to some extent.

One recent poll has Biden beating Warren in a 2 way race:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-september-15-17-2019


...and another has Warren beating Biden in a 2 way race.
https://www.fairvote.org/democratic_primary_2020_poll#spread_of_democratic_frontrunner_rankings

 

[Craig4]

Trump telling lies on Biden and his son was a golden gift that Joe didn't take. He could have hit Trump, gone for the jugular and thereby "assumed the close", defining this as a race between the two.

 

[The Atheist]

One recent poll has Biden beating Warren in a 2 way race:

If the vote was next week, it might matter.

Take a look where it was only a couple of weeks ago - Warren's vote is climbing fast, while Joe's losing and Sanders is stagnant.

If she's in front and they don't pick her, I'd advise betting heavily on 4 more years of Trumpistan.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's going to be really hard to credibly argue that there's nothing at all wrong with Hunter getting a $50k a month job at a Ukrainian gas company after his dad helped back a coup and was then partially in charge of US policy there.

The whole "but her emails" thing was merely stupid. This sort of quasi-legal corruption is genuinely problematic.

This is also worth remembering:

https://www.ft.com/content/c98078d0-6ae7-11e6-a0b1-d87a9fea034f

Behind a paywall.

This is not what reports say Trump currently accuses Biden of doing.

Biden (and I assume Obama) wanted Ukraine to fire a corrupt prosecutor, trying to decrease corruption in the Ukraine. Supposedly EU leaders wanted the prosecutor gone as well. The charge is that this prosecutor was investigating the company Biden's son was working for.

But it turns out that investigation was over already.

I'll have to look into your find. It wasn't mentioned in the sources I read.

 

[kellyb]

Behind a paywall.

This is not what reports say Trump currently accuses Biden of doing.

What Trump's accusing Biden of doing is total BS, almost for sure. Biden did pressure the Ukraine to fire Shorkin, but there's no reason to believe he did so to protect Hunter. Shorkin was just exceedingly corrupt.

Biden (and I assume Obama) wanted Ukraine to fire a corrupt prosecutor, trying to decrease corruption in the Ukraine. Supposedly EU leaders wanted the prosecutor gone as well. The charge is that this prosecutor was investigating the company Biden's son was working for.

But it turns out that investigation was over already.

I'll have to look into your find. It wasn't mentioned in the sources I read.

Correct on all accounts.

The Ukraine WAS interfering (or attempting to interfere) in the 2016 US election...only verified in the form of paying Manafort, (uncovered/confirmed later by Mueller, of course.)

It looks like Ukrainian politicians overwhelmingly backed Clinton, since Trump was so pro-Russia, and some were were trying to buy off/buy influence in the Trump camp, too....in the same way Trump and co are playing both sides with Russia and the Ukraine.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What Trump's accusing Biden of doing is total BS, almost for sure. Biden did pressure the Ukraine to fire Shorkin, but there's no reason to believe he did so to protect Hunter. Shorkin was just exceedingly corrupt.

You're repeating what I just said.

....
The Ukraine WAS interfering (or attempting to interfere) in the 2016 US election...only verified in the form of paying Manafort, (uncovered/confirmed later by Mueller, of course.)

It looks like Ukrainian politicians overwhelmingly backed Clinton, since Trump was so pro-Russia, and some were were trying to buy off/buy influence in the Trump camp, too....in the same way Trump and co are playing both sides with Russia and the Ukraine.

I haven't seen evidence of this. Manafort was an agent of the Ukraine before he ever joined the Trump campaign.

 

[kellyb]

You're repeating what I just said.

I was agreeing with you.

I haven't seen evidence of this.

You haven't seen evidence of what?

eta:

Manafort was an agent of the Ukraine before he ever joined the Trump campaign.

My bad...it does look like Manafort was getting payment way back in 2005?

 

[Mumbles]

With the Ukraine/Hunter Biden angle, do we all agree that Joe Biden's campaign is dead in the water?

Not really. Like him or not (he's among my least favorites), he still has a strong base that for now really doesn't have another place to go - although this could change once we get to the point where people seriously start to pay attention.

Meanwhile, I see that the Buttigieg police story I've been talking about has started breaking through. *He's* a dead man walking, and truthfully always was, as I said months ago when I first heard rumors of something very ugly going on. At the very best, he was easily fooled by a handful of racist cops and donors, at worst he was a part of it. Either way, not a good look, particularly for the older black people that make up the core of the dem's base, GOTV efforts, and so forth.

 

[kellyb]

New national poll has Warren leading:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in today's Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll. Warren gets 27 percent of the vote while Biden gets 25 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Too soon...

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Bernie's town hall on the failures of our US medical system was gut wrenching. It is not for the faint of heart, all stories of misery inflicted on people due to our insane privatized health system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=663&v=o3NcYzH3nNI

About 25 minutes in, a man describes that his late wife hid her cancer diagnosis from him until she was on death's door to spare him the stress and financial ruin of treatment.

How any Democratic candidate can be against single payer is a mystery to me.

 

[SezMe]

If she's in front and they don't pick her, I'd advise betting heavily on 4 more years of Trumpistan.

It's waaaaay to early to be reaching that conclusion. It's ~100 days to Iowa and A LOT can happen in the interim.

BTW, I am a Warren fan so don't misread this post.

 

[SezMe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=663&v=o3NcYzH3nNI

Look at the audience. It's whiter than flour.

It is really stupid that Iowa plays such a prominent role in presidential politics. I hope that some day (probably in the far future) a saner, more representative method of holding primary races is put in place. One essential part of any improvement must be the elimination of using a caucus to decide who the state's votes go to. S.T.U.P.I.D.

 

[acbytesla]

Not really. Like him or not (he's among my least favorites), he still has a strong base that for now really doesn't have another place to go - although this could change once we get to the point where people seriously start to pay attention.

Meanwhile, I see that the Buttigieg police story I've been talking about has started breaking through. *He's* a dead man walking, and truthfully always was, as I said months ago when I first heard rumors of something very ugly going on. At the very best, he was easily fooled by a handful of racist cops and donors, at worst he was a part of it. Either way, not a good look, particularly for the older black people that make up the core of the dem's base, GOTV efforts, and so forth.

I don't buy the latter conclusion. AT ALL. What I do believe is that he was a relatively new mayor who instinctively sided with the cops. I like him a lot. But he didn't stand a chance.

To the best of my knowledge an openly gay man has never won a statewide election in any of the 50 states. Demonstrate to me that an openly gay man can win a statewide election before you ask me to risk a national election.

 

[Aridas]

New national poll has Warren leading:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641

In a more localized poll...

Elizabeth Warren surges ahead of Biden, Sanders in California primary poll

A new poll released by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reports that, for the first time this season, Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads all Democratic candidates, with 29% of Californians likely to vote saying they would choose her from the Democratic field. This is an 11-point rise for Warren since June, the last time the UC Berkeley IGS published poll results.

That number rises to 68% when participants are asked which candidates they are giving at least some consideration to supporting in the Democratic primary. That’s 22 and 23 points higher than the next-highest Democratic candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, respectively.

For reference, the top three contenders are

Elizabeth Warren 29
Joe Biden 20
Bernie Sanders 19

 

[rdaneel]

I don't buy the latter conclusion. AT ALL. What I do believe is that he was a relatively new mayor who instinctively sided with the cops. I like him a lot. But he didn't stand a chance.

To the best of my knowledge an openly gay man has never won a statewide election in any of the 50 states. Demonstrate to me that an openly gay man can win a statewide election before you ask me to risk a national election.

Meet Colorado Governor Jared Polis.

 

[Venom]

I don't buy the latter conclusion. AT ALL. What I do believe is that he was a relatively new mayor who instinctively sided with the cops. I like him a lot. But he didn't stand a chance.

Exactly. Everyone in Indiana who paid attention knows Buttigieg was in his late 20s as mayor. He was young fresh eager to please, perhaps a bit too eager.

The cops led him blind, if you like. I don't buy that he was complicit.