Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[The Don]

It's almost like immigration can be good for a country.

For the architects of Brexit, I'm pretty sure that immigration control (aka keeping the darkies out) was just a tool to generate support for Brexit, not an outcome they actually wanted to see come to pass.

Then again, a large immigrant population who are unsure or uncertain about their immigration status is certainly a valuable resource for someone seeking to drive down employment costs and to remove workers' rights.

 

[The Don]

Breaking news: In Scotland, the Court of Session rules proroguing Parliament was unlawful. Now it goes to the UK Supreme Court.

Sadly far too late. Perhaps maybe the government might get a light slap on the the wrist but they'll have likely achieved their objective of a no-deal Brexit in the meantime.

Dominic Cummings doesn't give a stuff about Boris Johnson's Prime Ministerial career, the Conservative Party or anything else apart from getting his no deal through to satisfy his paymasters.

 

[McHrozni]

Sadly far too late. Perhaps maybe the government might get a light slap on the the wrist but they'll have likely achieved their objective of a no-deal Brexit in the meantime.

Hm, how?

BJ will be forced to send the letter, or else EU might act as though it recieved the letter and consider him in breach of British constitutional norms. Article 50 requires following those.

McHrozni

 

[Pixel42]

It's not a zero-sum game. Why not blame both?

OK.

 

[McHrozni]

Doesn't matter, once Brexit has happened it's mission accomplished. At that stage it doesn't matter how many brown people there are in the country, we've got control over our borders and that's an end to it

The storm of feces is coming and the Brexiteers will need a scapegoat.

Granted, they might not be looking that far out. That's a possibility.

Wasn't that the EU's original suggestion which the UK rejected (because of the DUP and various "unionist" Tories) ?

Yup. But the government no longer needs the DUP for their majority.

Belay that. The government no longer has the majority even with DUP, so dumping them doesn't really make the matters any worse. The dice might as well be rolled one more time, especially if the EU says "non" to another extension. This is also a change the EU would agree to to avoid a no deal Brexit, perhaps even allowing Boris to claim some sort of victory over the EU, I don't know. BJ ruled it out, which to me indicates it's going to be voted on at least.

Twice, if it doesn't pass the first time and the pattern with early election holds.

McHrozni

 

[Samson]

I disagree, a no deal is still very much on the table but there is also a need for immigrant labour in the UK. IMO for the architects of Brexit, this was nothing to do with immigration, indeed immigration is a key component of the low cost, low tax, low regulation, low employment rights, low benefits economy that they're looking to create.

The Don:
I am amazed you see no deal on the table, there is no chance.
Amongst expats here they see Brexit as dead, unlikely to happen.

 

[The Don]

Hm, how?

Personally I don't know, but Dominic Cummings will be working hard to find ways to try to ensure that a no-deal Brexit is delivered.

BJ will be forced to send the letter, or else EU might act as though it recieved the letter and consider him in breach of British constitutional norms. Article 50 requires following those.

McHrozni

The EU is free to do whatever it pleases but unless the UK Parliament agrees to an alternative positive course of action, the UK leaves with no deal on 31 October.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Breaking news: In Scotland, the Court of Session rules proroguing Parliament was unlawful. Now it goes to the UK Supreme Court.

Interesting times. The decision says the prorogation is null so presumably that means Parliament was in effect never prorogued and should be sitting today not withstanding an appeal later.

How this plays out practically I have no idea.

 

[The Don]

The Don:
I am amazed you see no deal on the table, there is no chance.

It's still the default, and therefore most likely, outcome. The UK Parliament has not passed legislation to change that.

 

[erwinl]

The Don:
I am amazed you see no deal on the table, there is no chance.

If no deal isn't on the table, that leaves only, revoke art 50, or an actual deal.

What do you think will happen?
And if there's a deal. What will it contain? (broadly).

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Sadly far too late. Perhaps maybe the government might get a light slap on the the wrist but they'll have likely achieved their objective of a no-deal Brexit in the meantime.

Dominic Cummings doesn't give a stuff about Boris Johnson's Prime Ministerial career, the Conservative Party or anything else apart from getting his no deal through to satisfy his paymasters.

They will have to recall Parliament so it's not too late.

And presumably the first order of business should be to cancel the recess for conferences.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The storm of feces is coming and the Brexiteers will need a scapegoat.

Granted, they might not be looking that far out. That's a possibility.



Yup. But the government no longer needs the DUP for their majority.

Belay that. The government no longer has the majority even with DUP, so dumping them doesn't really make the matters any worse. The dice might as well be rolled one more time, especially if the EU says "non" to another extension. This is also a change the EU would agree to to avoid a no deal Brexit, perhaps even allowing Boris to claim some sort of victory over the EU, I don't know. BJ ruled it out, which to me indicates it's going to be voted on at least.

Twice, if it doesn't pass the first time and the pattern with early election holds.

McHrozni

I think the Tories would have to be careful because the likelihood is that they may well need the DUP following any future election so throwing them under the bus for a short term win might not be a good idea. Although I would love it if they did, so the government isn't beholden to a handful of extremist idiots... but then they would likely throw their hat in with the Brexit Party so that's out of the frying pan...

ETA: I'm not sure what a NI backstop gains you anyway. Will the ERG support it? It doesn't solve any of the problems for the opposition so why would they change their mind? In fact an all UK backstop is probably preferable for them.

 

[McHrozni]

The EU is free to do whatever it pleases but unless the UK Parliament agrees to an alternative positive course of action, the UK leaves with no deal on 31 October.

They did just that. The Parliament legislated the PM needs to ask for another extension until the end of January, if EU sets a different date (or asks for preconditions) Parliament has two (sitting?) days to either accept or reject it. The bill got royal assent just before prorogation.

Therefore if EU agrees to the extension, or at least doesn't reject it outright, UK looks to be Bremaining for a little longer still.

It's not really what one might want, but if EU asks for "either referendum or another general election", Parliament intends to go for the latter anyway, so that should be fine.

McHrozni

 

[Samson]

It's still the default, and therefore most likely, outcome. The UK Parliament has not passed legislation to change that.

Updating Ladbrokes, who I think you consider dedicated followers of fashion, No deal went from 1.72 to 4 (decimal), I agree, and I was looking at 1.72 thinking I would offer it myself.

 

[McHrozni]

I think the Tories would have to be careful because the likelihood is that they may well need the DUP following any future election so throwing them under the bus for a short term win might not be a good idea. Although I would love it if they did, so the government isn't beholden to a handful of extremist idiots... but then they would likely throw their hat in with the Brexit Party so that's out of the frying pan...

Who said anything about Tories pushing for the vote? All that is needed is someone in the HoC to ask for a vote and Bercow granting it. If the alternative is no deal Brexit it might pass. Chances may be stacked against it, but there is a nonzero chance it would work.

ETA: I'm not sure what a NI backstop gains you anyway. Will the ERG support it? It doesn't solve any of the problems for the opposition so why would they change their mind? In fact an all UK backstop is probably preferable for them.

It allows UK (sans NI) to have their own independent trade policy. Plus a UK-wide customs union membership akin to the relationship with Turkey is a kind of arrangement that doesn't require triggering of the backstop.

Just so we're all on the same page, backstop is not intended to be used. It's there to ensure Brexiteer sole tactics - wait it out - works against them. That's why it's so controversial for them.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Boris Johnson.... sacked twice for lying in previous jobs, now found in court to have lied to the Queen in pretty much his first act as PM.

Betty can't be very happy about that. Off with his head!

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Who said anything about Tories pushing for the vote? All that is needed is someone in the HoC to ask for a vote and Bercow granting it. If the alternative is no deal Brexit it might pass. Chances may be stacked against it, but there is a nonzero chance it would work.

Well I think they could bring back the same agreement now and have about the same chance it might work. It wouldn't need the Tories to push for the vote but it would need the Government to renegotiate the WA to include this. And I don't see the opposition pushing for it because it doesn't get them any closer to what they want.

It allows UK (sans NI) to have their own independent trade policy. Plus a UK-wide customs union membership akin to the relationship with Turkey is a kind of arrangement that doesn't require triggering of the backstop.

Just so we're all on the same page, backstop is not intended to be used. It's there to ensure Brexiteer sole tactics - wait it out - works against them. That's why it's so controversial for them.

McHrozni

As far as I recall Labour didn't really have much problem with the WA as it stands, but were more concerned with the future arrangements. They wanted some kind of magical customs union that didn't stop them doing all the things a customs union actually does stop them doing.

If they bring back the deal now you may get some defectors but enough to get the deal to pass? Not sure. And after the Brexiteers in government branding it a surrender I don't see how they go forward from there in supporting it.

 

[Darat]

Hm, how?



BJ will be forced to send the letter, or else EU might act as though it recieved the letter and consider him in breach of British constitutional norms. Article 50 requires following those.



McHrozni

That's an internal UK issue, the EU will deal with what the government of the UK actually does. If there is no agreement for a further delay we leave 31st October. It will be a done deal.

 

[Darat]

Interesting times. The decision says the prorogation is null so presumably that means Parliament was in effect never prorogued and should be sitting today not withstanding an appeal later.



How this plays out practically I have no idea.

Very surprised if this isn't rejected by the Supreme Court, prorogation is a matter for parliament not the judiciary.

 

[Darat]

If no deal isn't on the table, that leaves only, revoke art 50, or an actual deal.



What do you think will happen?

And if there's a deal. What will it contain? (broadly).

Unless Johnson and his ilk are hit by a meteorite or acquire altruism, empathy and rationality (and I know which is by far the more likely) we will leave 31st October with no deal.

If I had a hat I'd really like to be eating it come 1st November when we are still part of the EU, sadly I won't be enjoying that delicacy.