I'm being perfectly serious. We've got almost two years of more gerrymandering, more voter suppression plans being put in place, maybe another SCOTUS judge or two.
I agree that the Republicans have certainly taken steps to entrench themselves in power... Yes, Gerrymandering will help them win house seats, and suppression will help them win senate seats (and gives them a certain advantage when dealing with the presidency.)
I think the reason people might be skeptical about the Republicans getting enough support to change the constitution is that its such a high bar... not only do they have to win the senate and house (both possible) but they need Super majorities in both the House and Senate (Given the polarization in American politics, its hard to see either party getting more than 60% of the seats), and support from 38 states (Only 27 states have Republican governors... so they'd have to win around a dozen more states.)
Again I'm not getting what magical factor people think is going to make 2020 a harder battle for the GOP then 2016.
There are a couple of things working against the GOP this time around:
- There are more republican senate seats up for grabs. (The problem the democrats had in 2018 is that they had to defend more of their seats than the Republicans)
- Gerrymandering and voter suppression are issues, but many of the states where it was a problem had already been a problem in 2016/2018. (In other words, its bad, but not getting significantly worse)
- Florida (often a key swing state) had a referendum that granted former felons the right to vote. Since people convicted of crimes tend to be in the same demographics as Democratic supporters (namely poor and/or minorities), it could benefit the Democrats in that state. Now, admittedly the republicans are trying to take steps to curb their rights (requiring ex felons to pay certain fines to get their voting rights restored), but given the often razor-thin margins in Florida elections, even a small number of ex-felons voting could make a big difference.
- More Republican congress critters are retiring than Democrats. Being an incumbent does provide an advantage (for example in name recognition), so having more 'fresh' Republicans standing for election gives the Democrats an advantage.
Then of course you have the general unpopularity of Trump, which hopefully carries through to Election day.
Again, I'm not saying that gerrymandering and voter suppression are not problems, just that there are some advantages that the Democrats have this time that they did not have last time.
