Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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ceptimus said:
He was being truthful. The only way to get the EU to renegotiate was to make them very sure that we would leave at the end of October, come what may. That negotiating tactic has now been fatally undermined by the Benn Bill.
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No, it was doomed from the start, because the idea that it would have that effect on the EU was bollocks.
 
ceptimus said:
Yes he has, but his plan has now been undermined by the Benn Bill.
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Baloney. Boris has not had any negotiations with the EU. He hasn't even tried.

Disagree? Right. What negotiations have occurred under Boris? Name them. Got any? Of course not because none have happened. Boris is not even vaguely interested.
 
@ D.O. I agree with that. Any government trying to govern without a majority is doomed to fail. Ever since May squandered her majority in a vain attempt to secure a larger one, the writing has been on the wall. First having to rely on the DUP, and latterly even with them it shrank to just one. Then, under Boris, with further defections, it's gone entirely. Obviously a general election is needed to try and sort it out: we may end up with another hung parliament but it's got to be worth trying. The sooner the better, in my opinion.
 
p0lka said:
I'm not actually sure about lying?

It could be a case of Hanlon's razor and they read the daily mail.
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I don't see the point of accusing anyone of lying on a thread, when the argument can be analysed and refuted. To be honest without Ceptimus this thread would be something of an echo chamber.
However Ceptimus does not suggest a specific advantage that will make lives better with Brexit, or how even a minority demograph will be better off quickly, or slowly, or ever. But I sure read their posts in expectation.
 
abaddon said:
Baloney. Boris has not had any negotiations with the EU. He hasn't even tried.

Disagree? Right. What negotiations have occurred under Boris? Name them. Got any? Of course not because none have happened. Boris is not even vaguely interested.
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What you say is simply not true. Boris's team has continued to meet with the EU team at least twice a week. The EU side, so far, haven't shown any signs of being prepared to renegotiate the W.A. they have presented zero new ideas as far as we know. Unless and until they are prepared to renegotiate, we know that the existing W.A. stood no chance of passing the existing UK parliament.

After a general election, if we get a more Remain-supporting government, the EU still won't need to negotiate as they will be confident that the UK will then entirely remain. The Benn Bill has given the EU the incentive now to sit on their hands and wait for Remain - the only chance now for renegotiation is if the general election returns a leave-supporting government with a good working majority.
 
ceptimus said:
What you say is simply not true. Boris's team has continued to meet with the EU team at least twice a week.
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They could meet every five minutes to say they had nothing to offer. Is that a plan? On planet sausage, perhaps.

ceptimus said:
The EU side, so far, haven't shown any signs of being prepared to renegotiate the W.A. they have presented zero new ideas as far as we know.
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Why should they? The EU is not beholden to the "glorious empire" is it? This wasn't an EU idea, was it?

ceptimus said:
Unless and until they are prepared to renegotiate, we know that the existing W.A. stood no chance of passing the existing UK parliament.
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You mean the one that the UK demanded and promptly rejected? That one?

ceptimus said:
After a general election, if we get a more Remain-supporting government, the EU still won't need to negotiate as they will be confident that the UK will then entirely remain.
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EU sentiment is now to wish the UK well on it's self destructive path. There is no more incentive for the EU to give a flying ****. It has descended into a "get this fiasco orf my lawn" scenario and little surprise given the incompetence demonstrated by the UK.

ceptimus said:
The Benn Bill has given the EU the incentive now to sit on their hands and wait for Remain - the only chance now for renegotiation is if the general election returns a leave-supporting government with a good working majority.
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Not really. The EU is at the point of saying foxtrot right oscar to the UK.
 
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The Don said:
I still think that crashing out with a no-deal on 31 October is still the most likely outcome even if they have to break the law to do so. It doesn't matter if it is done illegally, once the deed is done, there's no going back.
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Is that really the case? If an election is held and the Remainers gain an upper hand, could they go the the EU and ask for a do-over? BTW, this is a real question; I'm not trying to make a point. I really wonder if it's a one-way street.
 
Garrison said:
Well to be fair being stupid enough to assume Boris Johnson would keep his word should probably rule someone out of a cabinet position.
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Being fired previously for lying to Parliament should probably have ruled her out, but in a Cabinet where one Minister was fired for lying about unauthorised backroom talks with another country, another lied about his CV and the PM has himself been fired TWICE for lying, I guess standards are a little lower.
 
The problem for the Brexit argument at present is:

a) The EU wouldn't dare...they wouldn't dare allow no deal because their economy is so bound up with ours!

b) If we leave with no deal it will be no big deal for us.

How is it possible that (a) is true, but (b) isn't?

To get round this, they are now arguing that:

a) We'll pretend it is no big deal to leave with no deal, but...

b) It's just a bluff and the rest of Parliament should believe us and stop ruining it all!
 
ceptimus said:
What you say is simply not true. Boris's team has continued to meet with the EU team at least twice a week. The EU side, so far, haven't shown any signs of being prepared to renegotiate the W.A. they have presented zero new ideas as far as we know. Unless and until they are prepared to renegotiate, we know that the existing W.A. stood no chance of passing the existing UK parliament.

After a general election, if we get a more Remain-supporting government, the EU still won't need to negotiate as they will be confident that the UK will then entirely remain. The Benn Bill has given the EU the incentive now to sit on their hands and wait for Remain - the only chance now for renegotiation is if the general election returns a leave-supporting government with a good working majority.
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Boris' negotiating 'tactics' are best described by comparing them to a child that throws a tantrum because he only got promised three candies when he wanted five.
And the effect is going to be much the same, instead of three he will now get nothing.
 
SezMe said:
Is that really the case? If an election is held and the Remainers gain an upper hand, could they go the the EU and ask for a do-over? BTW, this is a real question; I'm not trying to make a point. I really wonder if it's a one-way street.
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Once the UK has left the EU, that's it, no do-overs.

We could of course apply for re-entry but it would be on much less favourable terms than we enjoy at the moment. We'd lose the "Thatcher rebate" and most, if not all of our opt-outs. We'd also likely be obliged to join one or both of the Euro and Schengen zone.
 
SezMe said:
Is that really the case? If an election is held and the Remainers gain an upper hand, could they go the the EU and ask for a do-over? BTW, this is a real question; I'm not trying to make a point. I really wonder if it's a one-way street.
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There is no problem with asking for a do-over, of course.
Actually getting one would be a more difficult issue. EU could offer a quickie permanent single market and customs union membership to end the economic problem, but with Britain having no say in rulemaking.

Brexiteers would cry foul of course, but they'd have only themselves to blame. They lost and would have to get over with that fact. Tough.

McHrozni
 
Brexit seems to be fuelling calls for Welsh independence, still very much a minority view.

Plans must be made for Wales' post-Brexit future, be it inside or outside the UK, a politician has said.

More than 5,000 people marched in Merthyr Tydfil on Saturday calling for independence, following similar rallies in Caernarfon and Cardiff.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49621438
 
ceptimus said:
What you say is simply not true. Boris's team has continued to meet with the EU team at least twice a week. The EU side, so far, haven't shown any signs of being prepared to renegotiate the W.A. they have presented zero new ideas as far as we know. Unless and until they are prepared to renegotiate, we know that the existing W.A. stood no chance of passing the existing UK parliament..
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It is not the EU's job to present new ideas. Boris said he would give some alternatives. The EU said were prepared to listen. Since then Merkel said the UK presented zero alternatives. In parliament Boris answered a question from Hammond admitting that the UK had not been working on any alternative options as there was no point given that no deal was taken off the table.

Unfortunately for Boris he forget that the no deal was taken off the day before, he had promised to deliver alternative options 3 weeks earlier.

So we have Boris in Parliament, where lying is serious, saying the UK has not been preparing for a deal and we have you in this thread where you have a history of lying saying they have.
Umm.
 
As others have pointed out, Boris' claim that taking no deal off the table removes key negotiating power with the EU makes no sense.

If I am dead set on shooting myself in the foot, threatening to instead shoot myself in the head is not a great negotiating tactic.
 
ceptimus said:
What you say is simply not true. Boris's team has continued to meet with the EU team at least twice a week. The EU side, so far, haven't shown any signs of being prepared to renegotiate the W.A. they have presented zero new ideas as far as we know. Unless and until they are prepared to renegotiate, we know that the existing W.A. stood no chance of passing the existing UK parliament.



After a general election, if we get a more Remain-supporting government, the EU still won't need to negotiate as they will be confident that the UK will then entirely remain. The Benn Bill has given the EU the incentive now to sit on their hands and wait for Remain - the only chance now for renegotiation is if the general election returns a leave-supporting government with a good working majority.
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Not true. The EU has from the beginning made clear why the backstop is required (for them) , which remember would only come into effect if the EU and the UK cannot agree a deal before the end of the withdrawal period. Johnson and others have claimed that they can come up with a way of ensuring even if a new deal is not in place after the withdrawal period there is no need for a border between the EU and Northern Ireland. (Often claiming a rather vague "there is a technological solution".) The EU has said "fine come back to us with this solution". So far the UK has not presented the EU negotiators with this proposed solution. The ball is firmly on the UK side of the net at the moment.
 
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