2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

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But!
When you look at "very unfavorable", you see:

Trump:
46%

Warren:
25%

___________

When you look at "very favorable" you get:
Biden
18%

Trump:
27%

Huh?

You also get Warren with a 13% “very favorable” rating. Lower than Biden!

ETA: Biden’s “very unfavorable” rating is also lower than Warren’s.

Am I losing my mind? Am I doing a Biden? What am I missing here?
 
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He'll get killed on this **** regardless the other choice is the liar in chief.

I stick by all of my previous comments about Biden. I see no way he can beat Trump, nor does he deserve to - he's not much of an improvement.

Fortunately, I think Liz will whip them all hollow. Her support has been trending exactly as you'd want at this stage - slowly but surely headed north. She's broken well clear of the other also-rans and is trending towards #1 as more and more people see her as someone they'd be proud to have as president.
 
I stick by all of my previous comments about Biden. I see no way he can beat Trump, nor does he deserve to - he's not much of an improvement.

As bad as he is, he’s a huge improvement. Donald Trump Just congratulated Poland for being invaded by the Nazis. And that’s probably not the dumbest thing he has said this week.
 
Your link suggests otherwise. The match-up shows Biden beating Trump by a wider margin. Also, look at the favourability ratings. Warren is actually lower than Trump!


But the claim was that voter enthusiasm would be greater with Warren. That can still be true even if Biden beats Trump by a wider margin than Warren; the poll isn't trying to measure enthusiasm.
 
But the claim was that voter enthusiasm would be greater with Warren. That can still be true even if Biden beats Trump by a wider margin than Warren; the poll isn't trying to measure enthusiasm.

What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?
 
Huh?

You also get Warren with a 13% “very favorable” rating. Lower than Biden!

ETA: Biden’s “very unfavorable” rating is also lower than Warren’s.

Am I losing my mind? Am I doing a Biden? What am I missing here?

They both beat Trump significantly in a head to head matchup, and they both get demolished by Trump on the "very favorable" metric.

The claim I was responding to about how MI voters "aren't scared" of Biden, as though they are scared of all the other candidates, is overall incorrect.
 
What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?

Warren's favorability rating nationally is higher.
https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/27/warren-overtakes-biden-as-most-favorable-candidate/

Warren Overtakes Biden as Most Favorable Candidate
The favorite presidential candidate of Democrats is actually not polling leader Joe Biden: It’s Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who sports the highest net favorability rating (+54 percentage points vs. +52 percentage points), according to FiveThirtyEight.

eta:
In battleground districts:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-favorability
Senator Elizabeth Warren had the highest net favorable ratings among the presidential candidates we tested.

Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
 
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What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?

What if people that favor Warren are simply more likely to make it out and vote than those that favor Biden?

In other words: "I favor Warren more and am determined to make it to the polls!"

versus someone else saying

"I favor Biden more but I'll vote if it's convenient".

Note: I'm not claiming that's actually the case, but it's certainly consistent with this poll.
 
What if people that favor Warren are simply more likely to make it out and vote than those that favor Biden?

In other words: "I favor Warren more and am determined to make it to the polls!"

versus someone else saying

"I favor Biden more but I'll vote if it's convenient".

Note: I'm not claiming that's actually the case, but it's certainly consistent with this poll.

Yeah, there's that, too. Plus the "I favor Warren more and am a campaign volunteer recruiting more campaign volunteers" factor.
 
In MI in the most recent head to head hypothetical matchup:
https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2019_Media_Freq.pdf


I think Warren's greater strength is that voter enthusiasm among democrats would be greater with a Candidate Warren.
Sure, but is it more than offset by the right-leaning voters who would be willing to sit it out and "let the Dems take this one" if Biden were the "Dem" in question.

I see them holding their noses and voting Trump again if they start feeling the hot breath of Reparations, Socialized medicine, and Free college breathing down their necks.
That's what I mean by "scaring" them.
 
Sure, but is it more than offset by the right-leaning voters who would be willing to sit it out and "let the Dems take this one" if Biden were the "Dem" in question.

I see them holding their noses and voting Trump again if they start feeling the hot breath of Reparations, Socialized medicine, and Free college breathing down their necks.
That's what I mean by "scaring" them.

I think the people who are going to vote for Trump will overwhelmingly do so regardless of who the Dem candidate is.
And again:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-favorability
Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
 
I think the people who are going to vote for Trump will overwhelmingly do so regardless of who the Dem candidate is.
And again:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-favorability
I hope that is enough to do the trick.

I know many registered Republicans, and right leaning unregistered voters, in MI and PA who did not vote for Trump last election. They either left the POTUS block open or took the opportunity to cast a third party vote.

I suspect they will do the same in 2020 unless the Dem candidate appears to be "too far" to the left.
 
I still remain convinced this is what's going to hang us. Full on pay-to-play. How much corporate money do you bring the party is what determines how well you do in the party.

Here’s How Much the Democratic Party Charges to Be on Each House Committee

Members of Congress who pay their dues and hit their targets are rewarded with better committee assignments in the future, and more favorable treatment of legislation they author, than members who shirk their dues. Members who don’t pay, for instance, are less likely to have their bills or amendments get a floor or committee vote. The DCCC did not respond to a request for comment.

The points system the DCCC has worked out adds layers of nuance to the money chase. According to the internal document describing the points program, raising more than $15,000, or hosting an event that raises that amount for vulnerable incumbents, known as front-line members or Red-to-Blue candidates — Democrats running in swing seats — is worth five points. Traveling to a district to campaign for a candidate, having a staff member volunteer to campaign in a district, and hosting a get-out-the-vote phone bank are each worth three points. For two points, members can do press or fundraising work on behalf of a candidate, including phone or television interviews with local papers, town hall meetings, radio ads, robo calls, or finance meetings. The members are able to log their fundraising activities using an online form.

“It’s not really something anyone pays attention to,” said one House Democrat of the points program, which is not new to this cycle. “It’s not nearly as important as how much you’ve directly given to them.”
 
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

What a joke if Biden ends up the nominee. Can't wait for the utter shock when some milquetoast center-right Democrat fails to inspire any enthusiasm or voter turnout and throws the election to Trump.
 
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

What a joke if Biden ends up the nominee. Can't wait for the utter shock when some milquetoast center-right Democrat fails to inspire any enthusiasm or voter turnout and throws the election to Trump.

If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.
 
If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.

I heard the DNC is already looking to lock-in their 2024 candidate: Mitt Romney
 
If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.
I guess the question is whether the Democrats HAD made mistakes by picking "milquetoast" candidates.

Remember in 2008, Obama may have been further to the Left than George Bush and the rest of the republicans, but he was far from being a 'radical leftist'. His voting record would probably place him close to the center of Democratic senators.

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Barack_Obama
The Almanac of American Politics (2008) rated Obama's overall social policies in 2006 as more conservative than 21% of the U.S. Senate, and more liberal than 77% of the Senate (18% and 77%, respectively, in 2005).

And then there was Bill Clinton, who (in his first election campaign) pushed for a balanced budget and supported NAFTA (positions that differed from many Democrats at the time).

Seems like Democrats do have success when they don't go too far to the left.
 
Seems like Democrats do have success when they don't go too far to the left.

When did they last go too far to the left?

I think Obama has been the farthest left they have been in the last few elections and he did very well. That he wasn't as left as many hoped is not an indication that he would have done worse if he was more left.
 
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