2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

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angrysoba said:
Looks like Steyer has failed to make the debates.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/tom-steyer-september-debates/index.html

I offered two possibilities for his poor polling performances up to now which are:

a) lack of name recognition
b) not offering a vision that was attractive to voters

Of course, it could also be:

c) people don’t want the Democratic candidate to be a billionaire

All those suggestions were poo-pooed before, so I would be interested to know what the real reason could have been.
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Steyer actually did pretty well, considering that he got into the race late and qualified on the fundraising side, and just missed on the polling side--he needed just one more poll to break his way. I read an interesting article in the WSJ today (paywalled) that talked about the poor return on investment many candidates are getting on their Facebook ads. Snippet from a blog:

According to media buyers and campaign staffers responsible for ad buys, it could cost over $100 in Facebook advertising to get a donor to give $1. Reports have even been published were PAC campaign strategies were completely changed after one Facebook push cost it about $279 per email sign-up.
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Steyer doesn't need the donations; I suspect he was happy paying $100 for the $1 donors. The problem is that all those Facebook ads apparently did not move the needle enough (or enough times) in the real world.

And it's not really that surprising. I mean, we've already had debates involving a total of 20 candidates, getting their chance to stand out; now we are down to the 10 who survived.

That said, I suspect that the Steyer campaign will be picking up the remnants of any other campaigns dropping out (cya, Kirsten Gillibrand), so he may be able to get his poll numbers up enough to qualify for still later debates.
 
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
 
Foolmewunz said:
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
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We're at ten contenders for the third debate. Maaaybe 11 if Steyer can squeak in an extra poll.

I think this debate winnowing has worked out pretty well. It's given the also-rans enough coverage to affect the conversation, then patted them on the head and pushed them back in time for their senate campaigns.
 
Brainster said:
Steyer actually did pretty well, considering that he got into the race late and qualified on the fundraising side, and just missed on the polling side--he needed just one more poll to break his way. I read an interesting article in the WSJ today (paywalled) that talked about the poor return on investment many candidates are getting on their Facebook ads. Snippet from a blog:



Steyer doesn't need the donations; I suspect he was happy paying $100 for the $1 donors. The problem is that all those Facebook ads apparently did not move the needle enough (or enough times) in the real world.

And it's not really that surprising. I mean, we've already had debates involving a total of 20 candidates, getting their chance to stand out; now we are down to the 10 who survived.

That said, I suspect that the Steyer campaign will be picking up the remnants of any other campaigns dropping out (cya, Kirsten Gillibrand), so he may be able to get his poll numbers up enough to qualify for still later debates.
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Yes, he got in late, and that prevented him from either making his name more widely known, or having lost the vote to someone else whose platform was better known or more attractive. I think that when someone has already committed to a candidate, as many voters had by the time Steyer got in the race, it is harder to jump to another candidate.

So, as the field thins out, he may get votes from other candidates. It looks like he can easily fund his campaign as long as he wants to and not being an elected politician there is no downside for him committing himself completely to that goal (elected members of the Democratic Party have their senate or congressional seats to worry about).

But it has also been questioned whether his well-financed campaign against corporate influence in politics is best served by him spending his money on a presidential run. Instead, it has been asked whether or not his money would be better off spend on Senate campaigns, Congressional campaigns or even campaigns further down the ballot in, for example, the types of states that are seeking to ban abortion.
 
Foolmewunz said:
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
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There are 44,706,350 registered members of the Democratic Party in the United States. I believe at last count they are all running for President.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
He missed the debate cutoff, so he's as good as out.
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I don't think he knows that, though. He's a free-spending billionaire who hopes to make future debates as the entry requirements are apparently the same. He'll just have to sit this one out and concentrate on the next one.
 
angrysoba said:
I don't think he knows that, though. He's a free-spending billionaire who hopes to make future debates as the entry requirements are apparently the same. He'll just have to sit this one out and concentrate on the next one.
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As said before with how long our campaign cycle has been getting seeing candidates essentially campaigning for the election after next was going to be a thing we started seeing some version of.
 
JoeMorgue said:
As said before with how long our campaign cycle has been getting seeing candidates essentially campaigning for the election after next was going to be a thing we started seeing some version of.
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Oh, he could be doing that. I meant he was still aiming to be in the debate after next, not the election after next.
 
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
 
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dudalb said:
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
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They’ve already had four of these nights.
 
dudalb said:
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
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They should still split it into two nights. Warren, Sanders and Biden on the first night, The Rest on some other night.

Yeah, I know, we have to be fair and pretend any of the others have a shot.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
He missed the debate cutoff, so he's as good as out.
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Out of what? The debate or the race?

Here's Steyer's email today:
Virginia, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed. I was eager to get on the debate stage next month — to fight for the future we're working toward together.

Here’s the good news: The only thing that's changed is our timeline. I'm fully committed to our campaign for an equitable, just, and sustainable America, and I wouldn’t be where I am without you. I’ll be ready to be your voice on that stage come October.

Since the Democratic National Committee voted against holding a climate debate, I’m hosting a town hall on Tuesday, September 3 at 5:30 p.m. Pacific Time to talk about my Justice-Centered Climate Plan. This is still something we need to talk about, and I want to give everyone the chance to ask questions and voice their concerns. Sign up here to tune in via livestream....
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I've seen criticisms of details like the lack of control over interruptions & shouting competitions, the Republican framing of the "questions", and two candidates' microphones apparently repeatedly cutting off, but mostly not about the general idea of having so many people on at once. So the usual complaints take the form of how having so many was managed, not that it was bad to even try it no matter how it would be managed. I've only heard that twice: once from Bernie on Joe Rogan's show, and once from a commentator talking about Bernie's appearance on Joe Rogan's show.
 
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