Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Delphic Oracle]

Honestly, I think we do. Industrially advanced societies with well informed populations having access to social media and the internet will be extremely difficult to rule by tyrannical or dictatorial means. Attempts to impose such rule will destroy the fabric of society rather than reduce the population to submission. It will also cause unprecedented international outrage and financial crisis. Charles I appealed to the divine right of kings, which was then a widely accepted doctrine, but no divine right attaches to Boris, any more than it does to Trump across the water.

If I'd had a drink in my mouth, it would be all over the screen.

 

[GlennB]

The ROI has never been part of the UK. It was colonised. We can debate that, but the issue is that of the more willing long term members of the UK none have left. i suspect Scotland will be the first.

"Since at least the 1600s, all of these areas have been connected politically, reaching a height in 1801 with the creation of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. About five-sixths of the island of Ireland seceded from the United Kingdom in 1921 as the Irish Free State. "

Just sayin' ...

 

[Castro]

There has been some speculation that the prospect of a new border between Ireland and Northern Ireland could push NI to leave the UK. What would be the process to accomplish that, and how long would it take?

They should try to invoke article 50. I heard that even though it may take some time, it works to leave undemocratic evil entities.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

There has been some speculation that the prospect of a new border between Ireland and Northern Ireland could push NI to leave the UK. What would be the process to accomplish that, and how long would it take?

Just to actually address the question the process would no doubt be similar to that in Scotland (or intended in Scotland)

1. Elect a party to power in Northern Ireland that has reunification as a manifesto pledge (presuming that's the end goal rather than a fully independent N Ireland). This is also complicated by the current status of the N Ireland assembly I suppose.

2. That party would then presumably negotiate with the UK government to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland. There would probably have to be joint talks with Ireland as well though these could I suppose come later

3. If the referendum result is positive, the process of negotiating an exit begins with representatives of UK, N Ireland and presumably Ireland too.

I would say it's highly unlikely currently.

The above process also presumes that the UK government play ball, if they don't the process becomes messier.

 

[Giz]

Oh here comes another one....

Another what?

Another one saying “don’t be hysterical ninnies, democracy isn’t dying in the UK”?

 

[dudalb]

and yet you elected one President.

GIven who is the UK PM, maybe you should remember that saying about people who live in glass houses, etc.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

GIven who is the UK PM, maybe you should remember that saying about people who live in glass houses, etc.

We didn't elect him at least. Yet.

 

[dudalb]

The ROI has never been part of the UK. It was colonised. We can debate that, but the issue is that of the more willing long term members of the UK none have left. i suspect Scotland will be the first.

Are you really that ignorant of history?
Yes, Ireland might have been forced in the UK but no doubt it was part of the UK from the Union circa 1800, until the treaty of 1922 and the birth of the Irish Free State.

 

[Craig B]

The ROI has never been part of the UK. It was colonised. We can debate that, but the issue is that of the more willing long term members of the UK none have left. i suspect Scotland will be the first.

The whole of Ireland was part of the UK. In fact the uk came into existence in 1801 when Ireland was united to Great Britain, the resulting Union being called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. In 1922 much of Ireland seceded from this union which therefore had to change its name to ... and Northern Ireland. Ireland was constitutionally NOT a colony, but part of the UK.

Obviously the Republic of Ireland has not been part of any kingdom. That is because its territory was effectively independent for more than two decades prior to its becoming a de jure Republic. First you said no one had left the UK. When I proved that mistaken you changed and said that no willing long term members had left. So what? Why should a willing member of the union leave it? Scotland will leave only when - may the day come soon! - the voters of Scotland indicate in a referendum their desire to secede from the UK.

 

[dudalb]

The whole of Ireland was part of the UK. In fact the uk came into existence in 1801 when Ireland was united to Great Britain, the resulting Union being called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. In 1922 much of Ireland seceded from this union which therefore had to change its name to ... and Northern Ireland. Ireland was constitutionally NOT a colony, but part of the UK.

Obviously the Republic of Ireland has not been part of any kingdom. That is because its territory was effectively independent for more than two decades prior to its becoming a de jure Republic. First you said no one had left the UK. When I proved that mistaken you changed and said that no willing long term members had left. So what? Why should a willing member of the union leave it? Scotland will leave only when - may the day come soon! - the voters of Scotland indicate in a referendum their desire to secede from the UK.

You might argue that Ireland was a defacto colony of the UK since a majority of it's population never wanted to be part of the UK,but legally it was part of the UK from the Union intil it won it's independence.
It was sort of separatist movement that was ultimately successful.

 

[Craig B]

You might argue that Ireland was a defacto colony of the UK since a majority of it's population never wanted to be part of the UK,but legally it was part of the UK from the Union intil it won it's independence.
It was sort of separatist movement that was ultimately successful.

That reluctance to unite with England was exhibited in Scotland too on the occasion of the union of 1707 which created Great Britain. Scotland nonetheless was not and never has been a colony of England.

 

[dudalb]

And I think the time has come for the opposition to put off the gloves,and learn to play hardball.
That a problem with the British:At times they are too civil for their own good.
Drastic measures are called for in this situation. I would suggest just the opposition refuse to adjourn and refuse to leave the House.
But I doubt they have the guts for that.

 

[BobTheCoward]

And I think the time has come for the opposition to put off the gloves,and learn to play hardball.
That a problem with the British:At times they are too civil for their own good.
Drastic measures are called for in this situation. I would suggest just the opposition refuse to adjourn and refuse to leave the House.
But I doubt they have the guts for that.

The PM is adhering to written rules. If you don't want the PM to use the rules that come with winning, then win elections.

ETA: I feel like an American watching soccer (or even baseball). There are unwritten rules at play here. I'm a real rules literalist.

 

[a_unique_person]

On a personal note (though something similar will no doubt apply to other expats living in the EU), this was just posted on the UK embassy website in Greece.

As it stands our reciprocal healthcare expires on Dec 31st, leaving 2 months to quit to get back to the UK or face ruin if something dramatic happened (it probably won't, of course, but ...)

Item 1 has occurred to us , but items 3 and 4 come as news and are rather troubling.

At least they have planned for all of this in just two months before the no-deal brexit. Everything is under control.

 

[The Don]

Might as well just rip off the bandage at this point. After the UK crashes out, everything can start moving back towards a state of maximum reasonableness.

EU: "Hey, old chum! I've gone over some of our agreements, and I think it'd benefit both of us if we made some adjustments."

UK: "By Jove, it's so obvious!"

A few extra agreements on trade here, some amendments on free movement there. It'll be like the UK never left.

It's a nice fantasy but the Conservative and Brexit parties wouldn't countenance the kind of freedom of movement which would enable EEA membership (or equivalent) and they're not prepared to allow the legal and regulatory involvement from the EU which would allow customs union membership.

They're perfectly happy for the US to dictate terms though

 

[The Don]

The PM is adhering to written rules. If you don't want the PM to use the rules that come with winning, then win elections.

Yes, Boris Johnson is within the strict letter of the rules. OTOH he's using the rules in a way that wasn't originally considered. The substitute in football used only to be used in case of injury to a player. Then someone did a tactical substitution to an uninjured player and the game changed significantly. Then again Mankading is within the rules of cricket but few if any captains would consider doing it

If prorogation simply becomes yet another tool to avoid parliamentary scrutiny then we'll know which of those two sporting equivalents it represents.

 

[erwinl]

It seems there's a large petition going on now, which protests against the shutting down of parliament.

Does this have any force behind it?

 

[The Don]

It seems there's a large petition going on now, which protests against the shutting down of parliament.

Does this have any force behind it?

Not really.

If it attracts a certain number of signatures (and I think it's already well past that threshold) then it has to be debated in Parliament. Of course Parliamentary time is short thanks to prorogation so that isn't going to happen.

The second referendum attracted over 5 million signatures and that made no difference.

We have a Conservative Party which is now dogmatically attached to a no-deal Brexit aided and abetted by a Labour Party leadership who are, against the wishes of the overwhelming proportion of members and supporters, pro-Brexit. Massed protests involving millions of people would just be ignored.

IMO nothing can happen to stop a no deal Brexit unless the Labour Party stops messing around, reflects the majority of its supporters and members, and becomes pro-Remain and Jeremy Corbyn stops using the biggest crisis since World War Two as a means to attempt to become Prime Minister. Neither of these things is likely so we're fooked.

 

[Mojo]

It seems there's a large petition going on now, which protests against the shutting down of parliament.

Does this have any force behind it?

I think if it gets more than 100,000 signatures it gets debated in Parlia...

Ah.

 

[GlennB]

It seems there's a large petition going on now, which protests against the shutting down of parliament.

Does this have any force behind it?

I believe that it forces a debate on the subject if it gets >100,00 (?) signatures, which it has. Unfortunately prorogation leaves no time for the debate

Meanwhile it's interesting to see what some current cabinet members have quite recently said about prorogation -

Hancock - “goes against everything those men who waded onto those [D-day] beaches fought & died for – and I will not have it”.

Rudd - “The idea of leaving the EU to take back more control into parliament and to consider the idea of closing parliament to do that is the most extraordinary idea I’ve ever heard,”

Javid - “You don’t deliver on democracy by trashing democracy ... we are not selecting a dictator of our country”

Truss - “archaic manoeuvre” that Johnson had already ruled out. “He wants to bring parliament with him,” she said. She was asked: “He’s definitely ruling out proroguing or suspending parliament, is that right?” Her answer was: “That’s right.”

Gove - “I think it will be wrong for many reasons. I think it would not be true to the best traditions of British democracy”.

Morgan - “clearly a mad suggestion”.

Leadsom - “No I don’t believe I would [go along with it] and I don’t believe it would happen.”