Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
The only person who lacks a sense of anything here is you. You are the one claiming the majority supports this move. I just showed you you are wrong and you move on without missing a step to more nonsense.
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I did not claim that. I have no idea if they support it or not. That is why I used the word "seems" and why I'm asking a bunch of questions about parliaments.

If there was a hypothetical vote on prorogation, how would people handicap the odds of it winning?
 
BobTheCoward said:
Why does the press lack a sense of where conservative MPs stand on this?
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Because a lot of Conservative MPs are staying very tight-lipped on where they stand. They're doing this because they represent constituencies which voted to Remain (so being enthusiastically pro-no deal would seriously jeopardise their chances of re-election) but where the constituency party (which may only number a few dozen of the blue rinse brigade) are rabidly no-deal (so being obviously anything else would get them deselected for the seat). They themselves may be Remain, or they may be pro-Brexit but anti no deal.

If they had the courage of their convictions (and there are a very few which are) then they'd be open about their opinions and let the dice fall where they may. There is however a distinct shortage of backbone in general among the professional political classes and especially when it comes to Brexit. There are a significant number of Conservative MPs who wold dearly like to see Brexit shelved but they do not want to be the ones be seen to to do it.
 
There has been some speculation that the prospect of a new border between Ireland and Northern Ireland could push NI to leave the UK. What would be the process to accomplish that, and how long would it take?
 
The Don said:
Because a lot of Conservative MPs are staying very tight-lipped on where they stand. They're doing this because they represent constituencies which voted to Remain (so being enthusiastically pro-no deal would seriously jeopardise their chances of re-election) but where the constituency party (which may only number a few dozen of the blue rinse brigade) are rabidly no-deal (so being obviously anything else would get them deselected for the seat). They themselves may be Remain, or they may be pro-Brexit but anti no deal.

If they had the courage of their convictions (and there are a very few which are) then they'd be open about their opinions and let the dice fall where they may. There is however a distinct shortage of backbone in general among the professional political classes and especially when it comes to Brexit. There are a significant number of Conservative MPs who wold dearly like to see Brexit shelved but they do not want to be the ones be seen to to do it.
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That seems to make the argument that if there was a hypothetical prorogue vote, the vote is readily whipped.
 
ceptimus said:
If they weren't so lazy, they would hold all the conferences at the same time rather than spacing them out...
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Back a couple of decades ago when people last gave a **** about the political parties the conferences were a big deal and got vast media attention. Each major party (plus the TUC) got their turn to capture the news agenda for a week. Interest dwindled along with membership and as politicians got better at news management and not putting their foot in it the hardest task facing journalists became staying awake just in case someone accidentally said something newsworthy.
 
BobTheCoward said:
Unless you have a system with undeveloped reporting of whipping, I'm not sure where the difficulty is. In the US, it is a fairly standard process for reporters to report on the where legislatures are leaning and to count them on potential issues. What am I missing? Why does the press lack a sense of where conservative MPs stand on this?
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What you are missing is that the divisions are cross-party ones. There are an equal number of conservatives who are strongly pro-remain, and people like Amber Rudd would revert back to being remain tomorrow were it not for the fact they want to hang onto their well-paid Cabinet jobs.

There are Labour Party MP's strongly pro-Brexit.

Theresa May after she called a General Election had a very weak majority so had to collaborate with another party, the DUP, of Northern Ireland, to 'buy' another 10 votes in exchange for her throwing a load of money at causes dear to DUP hearts in Norn.

Unfortunately for her, they could not agree on the Irish backstop as after all, staying British is the main mission statement and lynch pin of the DUP.

Sinn Fein could technically take their seats and form a majority opposition but being anti-British, it is against their equally strong principles to recognise the UK Parliament.
 
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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
There isn't a vote. That's the entire point.

Put it this way. If BJ thought he could achieve a majority in Parliament for things why would he be shutting it down?
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That is my question. The last few posters seem to agree that conservatives are relatively quiet. In the US, silence is golden if you are whipping up votes or engaging in non vote tactics. But it doesn't seem to be a good indicator for you guys. That is my confusion.
 
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ponderingturtle said:
Yep the Torries decided on no deal when the picked Johnson and really that is simply a given now.
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Yeah, essentially they picked Johnson because they'd already drained the Kool-aid vat of the cult of no deal, and Boris made the right gung-ho noises to pander to them.

His competitor Hunt's views on Brexit were what he believed would be the best for Britain. Johnson's views on Brexit were whatever he had to say to win.

As an addendum, everything Johnson now says and does is what Dominic Cummings tells him will win a general election and the looming Brexit trainwreck is just a sideshow. Cummings does of course actually want Brexit, but it's pretty much a given and is not nearly so important as winning.
 
GlennB said:
And yet May/Hammond assured expats that any loss of reciprocal care could be fixed by the expat simply returning to the UK for treatment. Hmmm.

Then there's the fact that applying the 183 day rule leaves Brits with no routine NHS treatment in their new country of residence, i.e. the UK, for 6 months.
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Assuming the returning expats are elderly or in poor health it'll significant cut the burden of paying pensions.
 
ceptimus said:
Not true for the majority of applicants: about three-quarters of them only had to provide their passport or ID card data; the remaining 27% were asked to provide additional documentation.
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A mere 800,000 people. At least.
:rolleyes:
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It's a safer assumption than assuming that you have anything at all useful to add.

But I was only using Bob's maths. He assumed 100% of the Tories are for it.
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Certainly most are, I mean this is what Boris promised and they just voted pretty damn overwhelmingly for him to do this.
 
BobTheCoward said:
That is my question. The last few posters seem to agree that conservatives are relatively quiet. In the US, silence is golden if you are whipping up votes or engaging in non vote tactics. But it doesn't seem to be a good indicator for you guys. That is my confusion.
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Do you know what 'whipping' means in UK parliamentary terms?
 
dudalb said:
RIP Democracy in the UK.
ANd there is nothing practical you guys can do about it.
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Imagine the howls from Brexiteers if, following a 52/48 Remain vote, a small group of ultra-Remainers had prorogued Parliament in order to force through Euro and Schengen membership.....
 
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