Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[The Don]

I am now convinced Boris and Company want to go back to the good old pre 1832 Reform Bill days, when a wealthy elite pretty much controlled the UK. I am sure John Rees Mogg longs for the days when everybody removed their caps and got out of the way when the masters walked down the street....

A while ago I posted something to the effect that the Conservatives wanted a return to the good old days when women and blacks knew their place. MikeG thought it so wrong that he included it in his sig.

I think that recent events have vindicated my position.

 

[Ape of Good Hope]

The leaking of details of Operation Yellowhammer could equally have been done at the government's request on the grounds that anything better than the most dire scenarios can be used to demonstrate what a resounding success Brexit has been

Only sporadic food riots, just localised fuel shortages and a minority of critical pharmaceuticals being unavailable ? Operation Yellowhammer, and by extension the whole of Brexit, has been a national triumph

Fun fact: 'Yellowhammer' is an anagram of 'Orwell Mayhem'.

 

[The Don]

Meanwhile the Brexit good news continues. This time it's news that the agricultural sector will take it in the shorts.....

A no-deal Brexit could cost the farming industry £850m a year in lost profits, new research seen by the BBC suggests.

Farm business consultants Andersons said that without government support increasing significantly, some farms would inevitably struggle to survive.

The author of its research described a no-deal Brexit as a greater challenge than the BSE and foot-and-mouth crises.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49321597

 

[The Don]

The EU citizens thing also shows once again what an utterly unreliable negotiator the UK has been in this process.

For years the Tory government has been claiming that EU citizens that are legally working in the UK have nothing to worry about. And suddenly the Tory government recants this at the last moment.

So why would anyone believe BJ when he claims anything now?

Negotiating with the Conservative-led UK is like negotiating with a toddler. Our demands are unreasonable and liable to change without warning and even if you think you have agreed something, you can be back to square one at a moment's notice.

 

[McHrozni]

Negotiating with the Conservative-led UK is like negotiating with a toddler. Our demands are unreasonable and liable to change without warning and even if you think you have agreed something, you can be back to square one at a moment's notice.

I think BJ's 'strategy' is intended for domestic consumption. He knows there is no chance his approach will work, but that's not the main issue, he's willing to inflict whatever damage to the UK he needs in order to achieve power.

If a no-deal Brexit happens Farage is toast and if there is an early election right after Brexit, chances are Tories will dominate those. Labour will get plentiful support from traditional supporters but still be hampered by defectors to LibDems. Tories will stand united behind their leader, who is the only person who can save the country from Corbyn and that will be that.

The sad part is that's actually true, in a perverse sort of way. Not that BJ is any better than Corbyn, but neither is he meaningfully worse.

McHrozni

 

[Planigale]

And yet many of those are exactly what it needs to do to honor the GFA. I know that the brexit vote did counter the GFA no matter what people were claiming at the time and taking back control of your land border was of course a fundamental part of the vote. Why not just admit this and lie about being committed to an open Irish border when a closed one is what the people voted for even if they didn't realize it?

All the GFA says about the border is it should be demilitarised, it does not specify an open border.

I am not sure if you have travelled within the EU but even as an EU citizen there are border checks, the open border between the UK and Ireland is not a consequence of EU membership. EU law would not prevent border checks being introduced. If a backstop is needed for the UK to guarantee no birder checks then it is needed whether the UK is in or out of the EU.

The open border pre-existed the membership of the EU by Ireland and the UK. It is a consequence of bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland not EU membership.

 

[McHrozni]

All the GFA says about the border is it should be demilitarised, it does not specify an open border.

I am not sure if you have travelled within the EU but even as an EU citizen there are border checks, the open border between the UK and Ireland is not a consequence of EU membership. EU law would not prevent border checks being introduced. If a backstop is needed for the UK to guarantee no birder checks then it is needed whether the UK is in or out of the EU.

The open border pre-existed the membership of the EU by Ireland and the UK. It is a consequence of bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland not EU membership.

Hard Brexit thorughly violates the spirit of GFA and comes afoul on some of the articles. Naturally EU drew a red line saying that will not fly and UK agreed, then renegaded on the deal.

And now it's the EU that's being difficult. Lol.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

All the GFA says about the border is it should be demilitarised, it does not specify an open border.

I am not sure if you have travelled within the EU but even as an EU citizen there are border checks, the open border between the UK and Ireland is not a consequence of EU membership. EU law would not prevent border checks being introduced. If a backstop is needed for the UK to guarantee no birder checks then it is needed whether the UK is in or out of the EU.

The open border pre-existed the membership of the EU by Ireland and the UK. It is a consequence of bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland not EU membership.

Jesus. How many times have we been through this?

 

[Planigale]

The EU citizens thing also shows once again what an utterly unreliable negotiator the UK has been in this process.

For years the Tory government has been claiming that EU citizens that are legally working in the UK have nothing to worry about. And suddenly the Tory government recants this at the last moment.

So why would anyone believe BJ when he claims anything now?

I think the May government made a unilateral good will gesture with regards to EU citizens rights if they are UK residents. The hope was that the EU would reciprocate. The EU has not reciprocated.

"Why don’t the UK and the EU just agree now to protect citizens’ rights in the event of no deal?

A lot of people in the UK Parliament – both Brexit and non-Brexit supporters – have argued that more should be done to give greater certainty to citizens. The joint Brexit lead in the Dutch Parliament, Pieter Omtzigt, also called on the EU and the UK to safeguard citizens' rights.

However, the EU has insisted that it will not do a mini-deal as citizens' rights are an issue for member states. That was why the Prime Minister suggested that it would be impossible for the UK to deliver on this.

On 27 February, the Government accepted an amendment by Conservative MP Alberto Costa, which proposes that the UK and EU commit to part two of the Withdrawal Agreement on citizens’ rights in the case of no deal. On 4 March, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay sent a letter to Michel Barnier asking that both sides explore the options for ring-fencing citizens’ rights. Michel Barnier has responded saying that this would not be possible. Barclay and Barnier reiterated their positions in June in an exchange of letters.

Another option if it wanted to avoid a separate deal with the UK would be for the EU27 to adopt a decision to unilaterally match the promises in Withdrawal Agreement."

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/british-citizens-europe-after-brexit

 

[McHrozni]

I think the May government made a unilateral good will gesture with regards to EU citizens rights if they are UK residents. The hope was that the EU would reciprocate. The EU has not reciprocated.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/british-citizens-europe-after-brexit

You seem to be under mistaken assumption this is some sort of a "gift" to the EU. It is not. If UK doesn't guarantee rights of EU citizens within its borders it will soon find itself severely lacking hospital staff and desperately short on manpower in key industries. It's not a goodwill gesture towards the EU, it's self-preservation.

Similarily, if EU doesn't guarantee rights of Britons in its borders it might face minor inconveniences in regards to some professionals, plus lacking the income of British pensioners.

It's in the best interest of both sides to guarantee said rights, just don't assume the whole thing is broadly similar. It is not. UK has no choice but to do so, EU has a mild net gain if it does so. Some EU states are guaranteeing said rights anyway so there's absolutely no need for the EU as a whole to act.

McHrozni

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

The open border pre-existed the membership of the EU by Ireland and the UK. It is a consequence of bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland not EU membership.

Before writing any more rubbish like this, please learn something about the subject.
You could start here.

While there has been no official requirement to show a passport to cross the border for most of its existence, it was not in any real sense an 'open border' until the 1990's. The absence of customs checks is a result of EU membership.
A return to the border of the 1980's is what the GFA was meant to prevent.

 

[Planigale]

Before writing any more rubbish like this, please learn something about the subject.
You could start here.

While there has been no official requirement to show a passport to cross the border for most of the its existence, it was not in any real sense an 'open border' until the 1990's. The absence of customs checks is a result of EU membership.
A return to the border of the 1980's is what the GFA was meant to prevent.

Thank you for your helpful post. It is always good to engage with people who are prepared to discuss the facts and post references to support their argument. I am happy to admit an error and learn from discussions here. Discussions should result in changes in opinion and these are less likely when they sink to bullying. Socrates never sought to humiliate his protagonist just to lead him to understanding. I have to go now but will look at your reference later.

 

[GlennB]

I am not sure if you have travelled within the EU but even as an EU citizen there are border checks, ...

Hmm, I drove through France, into Italy and then into Greece. No border checks. Perhaps you mean when passing from non-Schengen to Schengen? Or are you talking about airports?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think the May government made a unilateral good will gesture with regards to EU citizens rights if they are UK residents. The hope was that the EU would reciprocate. The EU has not reciprocated.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/british-citizens-europe-after-brexit

The UK has no way to deliver this as it doesn't have a record of EU citizens currently resident in the UK. It would mean basically extending freedom of movement to EU citizens for the next couple of years.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Thank you for your helpful post. It is always good to engage with people who are prepared to discuss the facts and post references to support their argument. I am happy to admit an error and learn from discussions here. Discussions should result in changes in opinion and these are less likely when they sink to bullying. Socrates never sought to humiliate his protagonist just to lead him to understanding. I have to go now but will look at your reference later.

Then please stop repeating the same inaccurate information again and again.

Let's be clear.

-There are no requirements to show a passport or ID within Schengen.
-The UK and Ireland are not in Schengen and therefore can be subject to ID checks when travelling into Schengen.
- The CTA allows people to pass from Ireland into the UK and vice versa without ID checks (but it only technically applies to UK and Irish citizens, but then again how do you check that without having ID checks at the border?)
- The CTA is not a customs union so there would still have to be a customs border
- The EU does not allow for bilateral customs arrangements
- The EU is limited in what it can offer the UK because of its rules and also because it would have to get all of its members to agree to anything new.
- If the UK leaves with no deal it becomes a third country immediately.
-The backstop was proposed by the UK to address some of these issues. The Eu agreed to it but the UK parliament did not agree to the WA that contained it.

Can we agree on all these facts?

 

[erwinl]

Hmm, I drove through France, into Italy and then into Greece. No border checks. Perhaps you mean when passing from non-Schengen to Schengen? Or are you talking about airports?

Indeed. last holiday, we traversed the following countries.
Belgium, Luxemburg, Germany, Austria, Italy, Monaco, France and back again to home through Belgium.
Never did we ever have a border check.

Even last year, when we went throough Switzerland on our way to Italy, we were only stopped to check whether we had the correct toll vignet on our front window. Which we had.

The only times I have encountered real border checks, with passport needed to be shown, was when we went to the UK. For the rest? Nope. You need it with you (ID-card would be alright as well), but never have to show it.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The EU citizens thing also shows once again what an utterly unreliable negotiator the UK has been in this process.

For years the Tory government has been claiming that EU citizens that are legally working in the UK have nothing to worry about. And suddenly the Tory government recants this at the last moment.

So why would anyone believe BJ when he claims anything now?

Is it written on a bus or not?

 

[ponderingturtle]

You seem to be under mistaken assumption this is some sort of a "gift" to the EU. It is not. If UK doesn't guarantee rights of EU citizens within its borders it will soon find itself severely lacking hospital staff and desperately short on manpower in key industries. It's not a goodwill gesture towards the EU, it's self-preservation.

Similarily, if EU doesn't guarantee rights of Britons in its borders it might face minor inconveniences in regards to some professionals, plus lacking the income of British pensioners.

But when the UK stops paying for their healthcare are pensioners really worth it anymore?

 

[McHrozni]

But when the UK stops paying for their healthcare are pensioners really worth it anymore?

If they pay for their own healthcare?

Sure, why not?

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

Jesus. How many times have we been through this?

Until you accept you're wrong, facts be damned.