Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[ceptimus]

What do you mean? You compare apples with oranges and then complain I'm moving the goalposts when I point out your error?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

What do you mean? You compare apples with oranges and then complain I'm moving the goalposts when I point out your error?

I recognize it's in your interests to get into a back and forth that's off the point.

I'm not going to help.

 

[Hungry81]

Why should we pay the EU to let us fly our own planes? The EU also want to fly their planes to the UK, and most of the routes from continental Europe to the USA pass through British airspace. I would expect any nominal payments for these activities would cancel out, resulting in roughly zero net payment in either direction to allow the present situation to continue after Brexit: if there are any payments to be made, for all I know the EU will end up making a net payment to us?

Same sort of principle applies to businesses trading - I realize that the EU may choose to impose tariffs, but I don't see why they would expect regular cash payments over and above that for a "free" trade deal - the clue is in the name.

You seriously think people are still going to want to travel to the UK for what? Business? All the big international corporations are leaving. The government has plans to try to bail out those core instutions that are staying. Holidays? What does the U.K have that the rest of Europe doesnt? Royalty? Nah. Castles,? Nah. An exotic deep and ancient history? Nah. Fox hunts? Lol. Britains tourist board must love it.

As for the plane flights its not as though European airlines cannot reroute their flights if they need to. The U.K is small. The EU is a lot bigger. I am sure Ireland and an independant Scotland could benefit greatly from The U.Ks foolish hubris.
If Britain does leave the E.U, I wonder how long it will be until there is a UKEXIT.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...ked-operation-yellowhammer-document-797qxkrcm

Oh my god, those horrible remoaners and their Project Fear.
If only the government was staffed by True Brexiteers (tm).

Oh wait.....

 

[Pixel42]

Yes trade associations are a good idea. Shame the EEC got ideas above its station and became the EU with its goal of becoming a political union, rather than just a trade bloc.

Doubtless the people of Wessex and Mercia had similar fears at one time. Also the people of Scotland, Wales and England a little later.

Which of those other groups have a common currency, a supreme court, several presidents, total free movement, and all the other EU nonsense?

The United States of America? The United Kingdom?

 

[jimbob]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...ked-operation-yellowhammer-document-797qxkrcm

Oh my god, those horrible remoaners and their Project Fear.
If only the government was staffed by True Brexiteers (tm).

Oh wait.....

one titbit about the plan fro the Irish border.

The model is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks. With the UK becoming a “third [non-EU] country”, the automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is that some businesses will stop trading or relocate to avoid either paying tariffs that will make them uncompetitive or trading illegally; others will continue to trade but will experience higher costs that may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be hardest hit, given its reliance on complicated cross-border supply chains and the high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

 

[Lothian]

Doubtless the people of Wessex and Mercia had similar fears at one time. Also the people of Scotland, Wales and England a little later.


The United States of America? The United Kingdom?

Ouch!

 

[fromdownunder]

Doubtless the people of Wessex and Mercia had similar fears at one time. Also the people of Scotland, Wales and England a little later.


The United States of America? The United Kingdom?

The six separately governed Australian states did something similar in 1901.


Norm

 

[Nessie]

Yes trade associations are a good idea. Shame the EEC got ideas above its station and became the EU with its goal of becoming a political union, rather than just a trade bloc. Which of those other groups have a common currency, a supreme court, several presidents, total free movement, and all the other EU nonsense?

The part that the UK gets the least, is the aim of the EU to maintain peace and democracy in Europe;

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2012/summary/

"The Nobel Peace Prize 2012 was awarded to European Union (EU) "for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe."

The more integrated and dependent the European nations are on each other, the less likely there will be another war. The UK stands alone in not being invaded (with some exceptions, The Channel Islands) and occupied during WWII. It was the victorious European nation (heavily backed by others from over various oceans).

Since WWII, Europe has had one war, the break up of Yugoslavia, which was contained to the Balkans. It has sustained various crises without member states forming factions and going to war. Considering the history of Europe, that is remarkable.

But the British do not see it that way. Hence the EU is not seen as a saviour and good thing, but instead it is seen as restrictive and a bad thing. The EU may have "got ideas above its station" from your perspective, but from a European, particularly France and Germany, perspective, the EU is essential as an economic and political integrated organisation.

 

[Nessie]

Doubtless the people of Wessex and Mercia had similar fears at one time. Also the people of Scotland, Wales and England a little later.


The United States of America? The United Kingdom?

One of the fears is of a United (States of) Europe, whereby the countries become more like states or the UK devolved parliaments.

 

[Pixel42]

One of the fears is of a United (States of) Europe, whereby the countries become more like states or the UK devolved parliaments.

But as you suggest, that is something that people who are able to overcome their instinctive tribalism see as something to be welcomed rather than feared.

 

[ceptimus]

Doubtless the people of Wessex and Mercia had similar fears at one time. Also the people of Scotland, Wales and England a little later.


The United States of America? The United Kingdom?

And, of course, we have the SNP and the Welsh and Irish nationalists - the equivalents of UKIP but for leaving the UK instead of leaving the EU.

The USA is the exception: as far as I know there are currently no parties campaigning seriously to leave it - not any parties that have been successful in elections anyway.

 

[Pixel42]

And, of course, we have the SNP and the Welsh and Irish nationalists - the equivalents of UKIP but for the UK instead of the EU. .

Indeed, the forces of civilisation are in retreat all over the world and barbaric tribalism is making one of its periodic resurgences. We can only hope that the tide will turn again soon.

 

[ceptimus]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...ked-operation-yellowhammer-document-797qxkrcm

Oh my god, those horrible remoaners and their Project Fear.
If only the government was staffed by True Brexiteers (tm).

Oh wait.....

Leaked by remainers in the civil service and the worst case scenarios then cherry picked and spun by a remainer journalist.

Of course the government should look at these worst case predictions and use the remaining time to mitigate such negative outcomes: if they didn't you'd accuse them of failing to prepare properly.

 

[Amazer]

Leaked by remainers in the civil service and the worst case scenarios then cherry picked and spun by a remainer journalist.

Of course the government should look at these worst case predictions and use the remaining time to mitigate such negative outcomes: if they didn't you'd accuse them of failing to prepare properly.

Couldn't have been leaked by a brexiteer civil servant.... but one who opposes a no-deal brexit?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

In what way is walking away with no deal now better than accepting the withdrawal agreement which lets us carry on more or less as if we were still a member while negotiating our future relationship? It seems to me the only risk is that we have to walk away with no deal later.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

And, of course, we have the SNP and the Welsh and Irish nationalists - the equivalents of UKIP but for leaving the UK instead of leaving the EU.

The USA is the exception: as far as I know there are currently no parties campaigning seriously to leave it - not any parties that have been successful in elections anyway.

Equivalent of UKIP....haha... of all the stupid things you say on a daily basis that is close to the top of the list. How does someone get to be so ignorant on absolutely every single topic they pontificate on? it has to be deliberate.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

In what way is walking away with no deal now better than accepting the withdrawal agreement which lets us carry on more or less as if we were still a member while negotiating our future relationship? It seems to me the only risk is that we have to walk away with no deal later.

Because the idiots who support Brexit are idiots and those smart enough to realise what will happen will profit from the chaos and don't care if ordinary people suffer.

 

[Pixel42]

Leaked by remainers in the civil service and the worst case scenarios then cherry picked and spun by a remainer journalist.

Apparently it's Operation Yellowhammer that's leaked. Operation Black Swan is the worst case scenario, which does make you wonder what the hell is in that one.

 

[Ape of Good Hope]

Leaked by remainers in the civil service and the worst case scenarios then cherry picked and spun by a remainer journalist.

Whatever you say, boss:

"Brexit: leaked papers predict food shortages and port delays.
Medicines will also be subject to shortages in what Whitehall sources called ‘the most realistic assessment’"

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rtages-and-port-delays-operation-yellowhammer

"UK faces food, fuel and drugs shortages in no-deal Brexit...A no-deal Brexit could lead to shortages of food, fuel and medicine, as well as a hard border on the island of Ireland, according to leaked official government documents published in the Sunday Times.

The newspaper said the forecasts compiled by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-faces-food-fuel-and-drugs-shortages-in-no-deal-brexit-report-11788081

"The UK faces shortages of food, fuel and medicine if it crashes out of the EU without a deal, leaked government documents reveal...As Boris Johnson prepares to issue an ultimatum to EU heads next week, the bleak reality of crashing out on October 31 has been laid bare. Operation Yellowhammer is a secret dossier compiled by the Cabinet Office and details the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst-case scenario. The explosive revelations warn of the return of a hard border in Ireland plus three months of chaos with rising fuel prices and long delays at ports. A senior Whitehall source said: ‘This is not Project Fear – this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal."

https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/18/leaked-memo-predicts-shortage-food-medicine-no-deal-brexit-10589863/

"Aftershocks: Leaked Whitehall plans for No Deal Brexit warn Britain will be hit by fuel, food and medicine shortages and border jams...BRITAIN will face fuel, food and medicine shortages if it leaves the EU without a Brexit transition deal, leaked documents claim.

The forecasts - compiled by the Cabinet Office - reportedly set out the most likely effects of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9745142/cabinets-leaked-no-deal-brexit-plan/

"U.K. Faces Fuel, Food Shortages, Port Delays Post-Brexit...The U.K. will grapple with a shortage of fuel, food and medicine as well as job losses and a disruption at its ports of as long as three months with a no-deal Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, citing leaked government documents.

The dossier called “Operation Yellowhammer,” prepared by the cabinet office, also warned that the supply of fresh food could be reduced, it said. Critical elements of the supply chain, including ingredients, chemicals and packaging, may be affected, the paper added...the document had been compiled this month to set out the “most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than worst-case scenarios.“"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-food-shortages-port-delays-post-brexit-times

"Britain would face shortages of food, fuel and medicine as well as a hard border with Ireland if it leaves the European Union without a deal in October, a leaked batch of official government documents has revealed...A Cabinet Office dossier obtained by The Sunday Times warns months of border delays could disrupt key supplies to the UK, while social care providers - who would be hit by rising staffing and supply costs - could face a raft a closures...The fresh supply of food will also "decrease" under a no-deal Brexit, the documents say, while there are concerns complex food production and packaging could be hit by new barriers to trade.

The Yellowhammer dossier predicts Britain's social care system will struggle to cope with an increase in inflation, which officials say would ramp up staffing and supply costs "and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within two-three months and large providers four-six months after exit".

A senior Whitehall source told The Sunday Times: "This is not Project Fear - this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios - not the worst case.""

https://www.politicshome.com/news/u...hall-dossier-reveals-fuel-shortages-and-irish

"Leaked classified government Yellowhammer report reveals no-deal Brexit chaos warnings...The classified reports warns of low levels of public and business readiness for a no-deal Brexit and detail how ill-prepared Whitehall is for food and medicine shortages, transport disruption and civil unrest expected in a no-deal eventuality.

Up to 85% of lorries using channel crossings may not be ready for French customs with goods transports slowing to 40-60% of current levels for three months before flow improves to around 70% warn the documents prepared for the Cabinet Office. The availability of food will be reduced and prices will rise, according to the analysis which requires security clearance to read. There will be a knock on effect on vulnerable groups as the cost of essentials inevitably rise.

The classified reports obtained by The Sunday Times warn of the availability of NHS medicines being subject to “severe extended delays”. The paper reports that patients such as children with cancer and diabetics would be put at risk. This is an awkward revelation for the government which has tried to gag NHS whistleblowers from sounding warnings on how a no-deal Brexit would affect their patients. The Tories have forced 26 drug companies and pharmaceutical organisations to sign gagging orders hiding no-deal Brexit plans from the public.

The government has refused to publish their own assessments of the effects of a no-deal Brexit for some time, so the serious leak in today’s Sunday Times will be a great embarrassment for Boris Johnson.

The documents purport to outline operation “Yellowhammer” measures to deal with the scenario of a Brexit with no deal with the EU. It acknowledges current plans for Northern Ireland if the Uk leaves the EU with no backstop are unsustainable and there will be a return to hard borders in North Ireland. Protests and civil unrest are expected across the Irish border as a no-deal Brexit causes chaos.

Clashes are also expected between UK and EEA fishing fleets with 282 fishing boats sailing illegally on Brexit Day. Protests are expected across the UK requiring “significant amount of police resource.”"

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/n...-reveals-no-deal-brexit-chaos-warnings/18/08/

Of course the government should look at these worst case predictions and use the remaining time to mitigate such negative outcomes

We're a long way from:

“There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.”
David Davis
10 October 2016

“Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards.”
John Redwood
July 17 2016

“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.”
Liam Fox
20 July 2017

“We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU.”
David Davis
15 November 2016

“Indeed, [a trade deal] would take significantly less than two years. We hold all the cards. We will offer them a deal in response to their pleas for help.”
Patrick Minford
14 June 2016

“We are going to get a deal which is of huge value and possibly of greater value.”
Boris Johnson
16 November 2016

“Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. The new trade agreements will come into force at the point of exit, but they will be fully negotiated.”
David Davis
14 July 2016

“Trade relations with the EU could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee.”
Gerard Batten
17 February 2017

“Within minutes of a vote for Brexit, CEOs would be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding access to the British market.”
David Davis
4 February 2016

“The cost of getting out would be virtually nil and the cost of staying in would be very high.”
Boris Johnson
6 March 2016

“I think we could very easily get a better trade deal than we have at the moment.”
Douglas Carswell
8 June 2016

“All David Davis needs to say to is: listen guys free trade or WTO?”
Tim Martin
2 January 2017

"It will be easy to negotiate a trade deal. It's in the EU's interests."
Paul Nutall
17 January 2017

And my favourite, Dan 'sunlit uplands' Hannan's vision of post-Brexit Britain:

https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit

if they didn't you'd accuse them of failing to prepare properly.

They haven't prepared properly. They've flapped about in a persistent state of pompous and deluded denial for over three years, and the situation now is as woeful as it's ever been, the only difference being that more and more people are waking up and smelling the coffee.