Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Lukraak_Sisser]

And that is why I am not a politician!

Yes double standard mis-speak there. The UK should be asking firmly for the best deal they can get but not demanding!

Thing is, the UK actually GOT a good deal.

All negotiated and all that.

And then rejected it and wanted an even better deal, which they were told beforehand is unreasonable.

 

[The Don]

And that is why I am not a politician!

Yes double standard mis-speak there. The UK should be asking firmly for the best deal they can get but not demanding!

Thing is, the UK actually GOT a good deal.

All negotiated and all that.

And then rejected it and wanted an even better deal, which they were told beforehand is unreasonable.

There's a website called notalwaysright which collates customer service stories (though IMO many are frankly unbelievable and if not completely made up, are maybe only inspired by a true story). A regular type of story is the customer who keeps demanding a much larger discount than they are entitled to and are upset and offended when they don't receive it.

The "terms and conditions" for dealing with the EU are pretty well known and publicised and at an overly simplified level are:

• If you want to be in the EEA you have to agree with the "four freedoms", to abide by EU rules and regulations and contribute to the EU budget
• If you want to be in a Customs Union with the EU then you have to abide by EU rules and regulations (including not having separate trade deals)
• Otherwise the closest relationship you can aspire to is some kind of (free) trade relationship

The UK is asking for the top tier of benefits when we're only willing to commit to the minimum purchase.

 

[Lothian]

...........

• If you want to be in a Customs Union with the EU then you have to abide by EU rules and regulations (including not having separate trade deals)
  

......

It goes beyond this. If you are in any customs union and have deals outside that you need internal borders where goods produced inside and outside the union can be distinguished and taxed.

 

[Lothian]

The extra 2 billion over the next 90 days (if they manage to spend it) is still less than our net contribution to subsidize the EU during the same period.

Except we will not be getting it all back. I recall that we are going to continue to be part of some EU institutions in order for our planes to fly and our businesses to trade. There will be a contribution to the costs of all those things.

 

[The Don]

Except we will not be getting it all back. I recall that we are going to continue to be part of some EU institutions in order for our planes to fly and our businesses to trade. There will be a contribution to the costs of all those things.

Don't be silly, the EU will allow the UK to use these services gratis because they recognise the innate superiority of the English

 

[McHrozni]

The EU declared policy is that the UK should not profit by leaving the EU; a reasonable policy should be the EU should not lose by Brexit;

EU does lose by Brexit by default. This is not in question.

an unreasonable policy is to prevent the UK from benefitting from leaving the EU*

Why would this be an unreasonable policy for the EU?

McHrozni

 

[wobs]

It goes beyond this. If you are in any customs union and have deals outside that you need internal borders where goods produced inside and outside the union can be distinguished and taxed.

And yet the US is insisting on the UK adopting their food standards, and at the same time, insisting on the GFA being upheld.... which means an open border.

How does that work?

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

an unreasonable policy is to prevent the UK from benefitting from leaving the EU*

Why would this be an unreasonable policy for the EU?

McHrozni

Well because it's none of the EU's business what the UK does post Brexit, if it becomes a global free trading powerhouse and workers paradise, that's down to the UK and the EU shouldn't be trying to stop that. I don't think that an EU which tried to damage third countries' economies would be a particularly popular organisation.
The EU does have a legitimate interest in making sure the post Brexit UK does not have more favourable trading terms with the EU than actual EU members though.

 

[Lothian]

And yet the US is insisting on the UK adopting their food standards, and at the same time, insisting on the GFA being upheld.... which means an open border.

How does that work?

Quite right only an idiot would not realise the two are incomparable and Donald Trump is not an idi....... Oh.




Couldn't resist. To be fair you have different people saying different things I am not sure that the same people are suggesting both. Nancy Pelosi has prioritised the open border suggesting that comes first and any trade deal needs to compatable. Others talking about clorinated chicken and the like haven't to my knowledge claimed that can be done without an Irish border.

 

[Darat]

And yet the US is insisting on the UK adopting their food standards, and at the same time, insisting on the GFA being upheld.... which means an open border.



How does that work?

The same way Brexit has always worked, it doesn't.

 

[KDLarsen]

And yet the US is insisting on the UK adopting their food standards, and at the same time, insisting on the GFA being upheld.... which means an open border.

How does that work?

To be fair, it's the White House and their folks insisting on increased access to various UK markets and lowered food standards, while it's members of congress who are insisting the GFA must be adhered to.

The trouble for Johnson and the White House, is that any agreement will have to pass congress. Johnson will really have to sell the UK by the cent in order to get an agreement that will be too generous for Congress to ignore.

 

[The Don]

To be fair, it's the White House and their folks insisting on increased access to various UK markets and lowered food standards, while it's members of congress who are insisting the GFA must be adhered to.

The trouble for Johnson and the White House, is that any agreement will have to pass congress. Johnson will really have to sell the UK by the cent in order to get an agreement that will be too generous for Congress to ignore.

I see no reason to see why he would be willing to do so.......

In the event of a no deal Brexit, the government will be desperate for any kind of good news on the trade deal front - even if it turns out to be anything but. IMO they will accept any terms offered by the US (or any other major economy bar the EU).

 

[McHrozni]

I see no reason to see why he would be willing to do so.......

In the event of a no deal Brexit, the government will be desperate for any kind of good news on the trade deal front - even if it turns out to be anything but. IMO they will accept any terms offered by the US (or any other major economy bar the EU).

In order to take back control, no less.

The deadline is tight. He can count on Trump for only 14.5 months after Brexit date and in order to hold a Garage sale of the UK BJ will need another snap election first. He might be willing to sell UK for pennies to pound, but with a working majority of one Parliament won't ratify it. That takes two months off the table, substract another month in late December and early January, another in the summer for the recess and there is only about ten months to negotiate, legislate and ratify the whole thing.

That's approximately ten times faster than the usual trade deals, all done amidst the greatest crisis in 75 years, with the least capable cabinet in, ugh, at least 200 years I guess. If it takes beyond January of 2021, Trump may no longer be a savior. Recession is coming in an election year, that's bad news for the incumbent.

McHrozni

 

[erwinl]

I see no reason to see why he would be willing to do so.......

In the event of a no deal Brexit, the government will be desperate for any kind of good news on the trade deal front - even if it turns out to be anything but. IMO they will accept any terms offered by the US (or any other major economy bar the EU).

And what are the chances that deal will be defeated in parliament, just like the May deal was?

 

[lomiller]

This is I think the problem, in negotiations one should not demand, the EU may be asking for or offering, but not demanding.

The UK government should be demanding the most, that is how negotiations go,

So, the EU can’t demand anything even when it’s perfectly reasonable, but UK can make all the demands it wants even when those demands are clearly unreasonable?

The EU declared policy is that the UK should not profit by leaving the EU; a reasonable policy should be the EU should not lose by Brexit;

That isn’t an EU policy it’s just basic economic reality.

a reasonable policy should be the EU should not lose by Brexit;

There is nothing reasonable about this. The UK will suffer much more, but both sides loose and there is no practicable way to avoid it.

I am also not sure about 'international norms'

I’m not sure what’s hard to understand about it. How trade and travel are conducted is pretty much standard across the world and if you are no longer in the EU this is what you should expect travel and trade with the EU to look like

 

[lomiller]

Some people need to keep in mind entire point of many EU rules is that they provide a common framework for having free travel, trade etc between the different countries that make up the EU. “Why can’t we have an agreement with the EU to let us…” is often nonsensical because the cornerstone of the EU essentially whole series of just such agreements negotiated and agreed to by all the it’s members. Furthermore all EU members needed to make compromises to arrive at these agreements and get the benefits of them.

The UK coming along and asking for a different set rules was never going to fly because no EU member is going to agree to give the UK a pass on all the compromises they needed to make to gain the benefits of free trade, movement etc that the EU provided. There is no deal the EU can make that doesn’t require the UK either following all EU rules or being treated the same way it treats all non-EU countries.
So from the EU perspective:
The UK must either follow EU trade rules, or function as a non-EU country. The latter means significant trade barriers for the decade+ that it takes to hammer out a trade deal
The UK must either follow EU freedom of movement principles or be treated as a non-EU control and travelers must check in at border crossings when entering the EU.
The UK must either be part of the customs agreement of have goods/travellers pass though customs when entering the EU.

Brexiters can whine and cry all they want that they don’t like any of these alternatives but IMO it’s clear there is no practical way the EU can offer anything else.

 

[ceptimus]

Except we will not be getting it all back. I recall that we are going to continue to be part of some EU institutions in order for our planes to fly and our businesses to trade. There will be a contribution to the costs of all those things.

Why should we pay the EU to let us fly our own planes? The EU also want to fly their planes to the UK, and most of the routes from continental Europe to the USA pass through British airspace. I would expect any nominal payments for these activities would cancel out, resulting in roughly zero net payment in either direction to allow the present situation to continue after Brexit: if there are any payments to be made, for all I know the EU will end up making a net payment to us?

Same sort of principle applies to businesses trading - I realize that the EU may choose to impose tariffs, but I don't see why they would expect regular cash payments over and above that for a "free" trade deal - the clue is in the name.

 

[jimbob]

Video of Ken Clarke in 2015 pointing out the problems with not specifying what type of Leave a leave vote would mean.

Note the denials by the leavers:

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1162101456612339712

 

[Delphic Oracle]

I see no reason to see why he would be willing to do so.......

In the event of a no deal Brexit, the government will be desperate for any kind of good news on the trade deal front - even if it turns out to be anything but. IMO they will accept any terms offered by the US (or any other major economy bar the EU).

Well, this has upsides and downsides when it comes to Trump. He will absolutely tweet out how great the trade deal is already going (nevermind whether Congress has ratified it). But, being Trump, will just have to emphasize how he took you to the cleaners and its all icing for the US of A. That might not be so helpful after all on your side of the pond.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Why should we pay the EU to let us fly our own planes? The EU also want to fly their planes to the UK, and most of the routes from continental Europe to the USA pass through British airspace. I would expect any nominal payments for these activities would cancel out, resulting in roughly zero net payment in either direction to allow the present situation to continue after Brexit: if there are any payments to be made, for all I know the EU will end up making a net payment to us?

Because of the North Atlantic Organised Track System, westward traffic takes the northern route to avoid the jetstream headwind that would increase flight lengths and fuel costs. Eastward traffic takes routes through the middle Atlantic, advantaged with the tailwind.

Are you suggesting abolishing that system and having UK traffic controllers be the only party responsible to sort out bi-directional traffic in the most crowded air corridors on the planet?

Perhaps conforming to some international norms that reduce risk to human life seems sensible after all.

Same sort of principle applies to businesses trading - I realize that the EU may choose to impose tariffs, but I don't see why they would expect regular cash payments over and above that for a "free" trade deal - the clue is in the name.

They can certainly have an expectation for payments towards the costs of the institutions that administer and oversee the aspects of the multilateral agreements made.

It's the same sort of rationalization that the UK has about its citizens' tax obligations.