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The Trump Presidency 15

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GlennB said:
How does it end? Where is peak Trumpian weirdness? Suppose he dropped his pants at a rally, just to prove he has a normal willy ... would he get away with that on Fox? Seems likely to me, the way things are going.
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He talked about his junk on stage a few times. That was back when people were making fun of how small his hands are and he felt the need to defend himself. "Trust me, it's not a problem."

I mean, people still make fun of his hands now, but I think we're on to other things.
 
alfaniner said:
The Market thing is one of those things I'm woefully ignorant of. I know a Recession is supposed to be bad, the way everybody is talking about it today -- what I want to know (in fairly simple terms) is why is it bad?
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It's bad because it's turbulent and means direct "kitchen table" problems multiply (and that reverberates up the chain in the form of restricted disposable income and credit defaults). The same for businesses, those who don't see the tide shifting and stay risky and aggressive can see their revolving agreements start to eat them alive.

It's good because if the status quo reigns and institutions are often happy to just kinda perpetuate themselves as they are and these shakeups can take down slow old giants, giving people with new ideas room to get their foot in the door.

Of course in today's world slow old giants get bailed out with public money which then gets spent buying the new ideas from people who are happy to just take a nice derivative or license income and avoid all the drama of vulture capitalism.

So it used to make a lot more sense, but now the big players know how to play both halves of the game, so I'm not sure why we keep doing it.

Oh right, we don't have any say in it.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Again poor people are Trump's biggest base. I question the logic of hoping something makes more of them.

The states that went Red already are in a recession. What is the factory that shut down 20 years ago going to make less money?
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The Party in the White House always gets the blame for a recession;no doubt it cost McCaine the White House in 2008 and the Dems the House in 2010.
 
JoeMorgue said:
To VASTLY (like seriously) over simplify it, a lot of our economy is dependent on growth. Business, investments, even semi-related things like urban planning are usually based on a system that is going to get bigger.

It's not the end of the world when it doesn't happen, that's why a recession isn't as bad as a depression, but unlike a depression which effects the whole economy recessions tend to cause things like wages to stall out, hiring to slow or even stop, stuff like that. Jobs get harder to find, if your area doesn't have a particular business it's unlikely to get one.

Basically it's a period where everybody is playing is super-safe. Which sucks if your "status quo" was already crappy when the "Oh crap everybody just... don't do anything" mentality takes over.
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I think all economcies are dependent on growth;when you stop growing you begin to shrink.
It is a cycle, and all economies have them.
Yes, comrade, even socialist economies have recessions, they just hide them.
 
plague311 said:
He talked about his junk on stage a few times. That was back when people were making fun of how small his hands are and he felt the need to defend himself. "Trust me, it's not a problem."

I mean, people still make fun of his hands now, but I think we're on to other things.
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IIRC, it was the first thing he addressed, at the first Republican debate.
It's been downhill from there.
 
Well, my portfolio value is down over $7K for August alone, and that doesn't even include what happened today. So I guess it's bad...

But, I've seen it fluctuate before, even worse than this. I expect it will cycle back up eventually.
 
alfaniner said:
The Market thing is one of those things I'm woefully ignorant of. I know a Recession is supposed to be bad, the way everybody is talking about it today -- what I want to know (in fairly simple terms) is why is it bad?
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alfaniner said:
Well, my portfolio value is down over $7K for August alone, and that doesn't even include what happened today. So I guess it's bad...
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Don't worry about it, man. Recessions are so easy.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
To VASTLY (like seriously) over simplify it, a lot of our economy is dependent on growth. Business, investments, even semi-related things like urban planning are usually based on a system that is going to get bigger.
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That's actually why I'm with segnosaur in hoping this turns into a thing.

Our economy isn't dependent on growth, but on GROWTH!! Exponential, unsustainable growth that drives everything it touches to destruction. You can't just make money these days, you have to make more than last time, and if you can point to enough more you don't actually need to be making money now, or even have a plan to make money eventually. Whereas if you're content merely turning a profit, congratulations you've been bought out by a team of jerks who took out a loan to eat you wholesale and will load you with debt and sell off bits to pay for it, and Wall Street loves them because the next sector of the economy they parasitize is gonna be even bigger.

We're in a period of dot com thinking, of roaring twenties thinking. There's gonna be a reset, and it's gonna hurt, and the longer we put it off the harder it will hit us. I'd rather it hit now, before the elections, so we can get an actual adult in charge to help deal with it.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Again poor people are Trump's biggest base. I question the logic of hoping something makes more of them.
The states that went Red already are in a recession. What is the factory that shut down 20 years ago going to make less money?
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I question the assumption that the nouveau poor created by a Trump recession will nevertheless become Trump supporters.
 
Cabbage said:
I question the assumption that the nouveau poor created by a Trump recession will nevertheless become Trump supporters.
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You should question the assumption that poor people Trump's "biggest base." According to the exit polls, poorer people voted Democrat (as they usually do). Income is becoming a less reliable indicator of how people will vote.
 
Cain said:
You should question the assumption that poor people Trump's "biggest base." According to the exit polls, poorer people voted Democrat (as they usually do). Income is becoming a less reliable indicator of how people will vote.
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Yeah, I was questioning that, too. I've seen demographic polls that indicate a lot of Trump supporters are upper middle class/wealthy; I just didn't feel like hunting those down. On the other hand, I don't think the particular assumption I questioned requires any demographic data: It seems pretty much common sense that people that become poor under Trump's tenure aren't suddenly gonna decide to flock to Trump in 2020.
 
Cabbage said:
Yeah, I was questioning that, too. I've seen demographic polls that indicate a lot of Trump supporters are upper middle class/wealthy; I just didn't feel like hunting those down. On the other hand, I don't think the particular assumption I questioned requires any demographic data: It seems pretty much common sense that people that become poor under Trump's tenure aren't suddenly gonna decide to flock to Trump in 2020.
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Here's one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...yth-most-trump-voters-were-not-working-class/
 
Trump Tweets

The Great Charles Payne @cvpayne correctly stated that Fed Chair Jay Powell made TWO enormous mistakes. 1. When he said “mid cycle adjustment.” 2. We’re data dependent. “He did not do the right thing.” I agree (to put it mildly!). @Varneyco
 
Trump Tweets

We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!
 
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