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Today's Mass Shooting

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Here's a fantastic article in Cosmopolitan about incels and misogyny and a woman who is trying to monitor them. (I don't think it's been posted but kudos if someone else shared it.)

Is It Possible to Stop a Mass Shooting Before It Happens?
You’ve never heard of her, but somewhere in America, a top-secret investigator known as the Savant is infiltrating online hate groups to take down the most violent men in the country. Cosmopolitan goes undercover as she races to get ahead of the next large-scale attack.
Scary, and well worth reading every word.
Michael Finton was living in Decatur, Illinois, a shrinking manufacturing town,
working as a part-time cook at a cheap take-out joint. He was 29 and unmarried, with red hair and white skin, described as polite by his coworkers, as the mild-mannered guy next door by his neighbors. He liked to hang out and play cards and watch soccer. He also wanted to kill as many people as he could.

But no one knew that yet—except for her.

An elite investigator who tracks angry men online, she’s known to some in her field as the Savant because of her uncanny ability to suss out when, exactly, hate speech will morph into violent action. She came across Finton’s Myspace profile in 2007 and was disturbed by what she saw: videos of Islamic extremists carrying out brutal killings alongside quotes glorifying religious martyrdom. The page gave her a primal, hairs-on-end feeling that she’d learned not to ignore....

She started screenshotting everything Finton posted. She dug into his past and found out he’d spent time in prison for assault and robbery and seemed to have adopted radical views behind bars. She kept watching. And as spring turned to summer, Finton’s posts got even darker. That’s when she called the FBI.

What happened next reads like a movie script, except more dramatic and all true. Federal authorities set up a sting operation that resulted in Finton getting into a van he thought was rigged with nearly one ton of explosives. He told his accomplice, in reality an undercover FBI informant, that the blast would be a “historic occasion.” He parked the van outside a federal office building in Springfield, Illinois, where hundreds of people worked. And then, from a few blocks away, he made a call that he thought would trigger the explosion. When nothing happened, he called again.

The article is an exposé on incels who blame everyone but themselves and absolutely hate women. The woman exposing them is fascinating.
 
Here's a fantastic article in Cosmopolitan about incels and misogyny and a woman who is trying to monitor them.

Good work, thanks.

A sicker bunch of people don't exist, as far as I'm aware. Seems to be a recent phenomenon, and I'd guess that in the past they used to keep to themselves but have been enabled by the internet.
 
A relevant question I'd like to see an honest answer to.

The 'authorities' direct far more attention and resources to combatting international-born terrorism (especially Islamic) than they do home-grown terrorism. Despite the latter being 2-3 times deadlier.

I think the situation would be far different had the 9/11 terrorist attack never happened - even if there had been several smaller scale attacks like the 7/7 or Manchester Arena attacks.

The sheer scale of the loss of life, the scope of the damage and the shock that the attack took place IMO ensures that Islamic extremist terrorism is top of the list for a very long time indeed (even if the total death toll from white supremacist attacks over a large number of years starts to approach the toll from 9/11).
 
I think the situation would be far different had the 9/11 terrorist attack never happened - even if there had been several smaller scale attacks like the 7/7 or Manchester Arena attacks.

The sheer scale of the loss of life, the scope of the damage and the shock that the attack took place IMO ensures that Islamic extremist terrorism is top of the list for a very long time indeed (even if the total death toll from white supremacist attacks over a large number of years starts to approach the toll from 9/11).

Yea that changes things, it used to be no big deal to support terrorists, like say the IRA, you could do that and no one in the US would bat an eye. We had many politicians that did for example. But after 9/11 you couldn't view terrorists as ever having any kind of legitimate cause so any one you could understand is of course not a terrorist.
 
A relevant question I'd like to see an honest answer to.

The 'authorities' direct far more attention and resources to combatting international-born terrorism (especially Islamic) than they do home-grown terrorism. Despite the latter being 2-3 times deadlier.

Your average American has long been quaking in their boots over the notion of some A-rab slitting their throat or blowing them up, while ignoring the greater risk of their being shot by some disgruntled, American good ol' boy.

Is the difference in concern due to the mode of death; better a bullet than knife or bomb?

Or is is the nationality; better a fellow citizen snuff you out than some dirty furiner?

Or is it the race; better a whitey than a darkie?

To me it's irrationality on a grand scale.

Here's my attempt at an honest answer.

Partly, the premise is false.

Most of the effort directed at combatting domestic terrorism is just normal law enforcement activity. Police departments investigate threats and monitor activity constantly. That doesn't have a separate budget item. The total budget of all the activity related to combatting domestic terrorism is a lot more than any given line item in a budget specifically targeting domestic terrorism.


A related element, though perhaps not obviously related, is that the "terrorists" that are home grown are, with rare exceptions, lone wolf whackos. They are just people who go off the deep end, and have guns easily accessible when they do. Until they take that plunge into madness, there's nothing to investigate. There's no coordinated activity. There's no "chatter" to pick up on.


To the extent that it's possible, the FBI will do a little bit of surveillance of creepy people who get together and act like they are planning something. They monitor social media, or ask for the public to do it and report things, but generally, the spree killers were viewed as eccentric, but harmless, the day before they become spree killers.


It's kind of hard to get together a really big plot while hiding in the midst of a civilization that is hostile to your activities. i.e. It's hard to get together the Committee to Attack America in suburban America, so the domestic terrorists rarely manage to pull off anything significant. It's all about what one person can do the day he decides to make headlines. To pull off something greater, you need a base of operations, which is why the really big one, 9/11, was pulled off by a group who had the support of a friendly government in Afghanistan, and since they had that friendly government support, the US law enforcement couldn't just go in and make an arrest. They had to pull out an actual army to make that happen.


So, in summary, I don't think it has anything to do with some of what you labelled as motivation. It's not about the means of death, or the identity of the killers, or even the ideology that drives them. It's really about the circumstances where they operate.
 
Here's my attempt at an honest answer.

Partly, the premise is false.

Most of the effort directed at combatting domestic terrorism is just normal law enforcement activity. Police departments investigate threats and monitor activity constantly. That doesn't have a separate budget item. The total budget of all the activity related to combatting domestic terrorism is a lot more than any given line item in a budget specifically targeting domestic terrorism.


A related element, though perhaps not obviously related, is that the "terrorists" that are home grown are, with rare exceptions, lone wolf whackos. They are just people who go off the deep end, and have guns easily accessible when they do. Until they take that plunge into madness, there's nothing to investigate. There's no coordinated activity. There's no "chatter" to pick up on.


To the extent that it's possible, the FBI will do a little bit of surveillance of creepy people who get together and act like they are planning something. They monitor social media, or ask for the public to do it and report things, but generally, the spree killers were viewed as eccentric, but harmless, the day before they become spree killers.


It's kind of hard to get together a really big plot while hiding in the midst of a civilization that is hostile to your activities. i.e. It's hard to get together the Committee to Attack America in suburban America, so the domestic terrorists rarely manage to pull off anything significant. It's all about what one person can do the day he decides to make headlines. To pull off something greater, you need a base of operations, which is why the really big one, 9/11, was pulled off by a group who had the support of a friendly government in Afghanistan, and since they had that friendly government support, the US law enforcement couldn't just go in and make an arrest. They had to pull out an actual army to make that happen.


So, in summary, I don't think it has anything to do with some of what you labelled as motivation. It's not about the means of death, or the identity of the killers, or even the ideology that drives them. It's really about the circumstances where they operate.

None of this explains the regular cuts we see when republicans get into office of fighting white supremacist terrorism though.
 
Partly, the premise is false.


So are your premises.

Most of the effort directed at combatting domestic terrorism is just normal law enforcement activity. Police departments investigate threats and monitor activity constantly. That doesn't have a separate budget item. The total budget of all the activity related to combatting domestic terrorism is a lot more than any given line item in a budget specifically targeting domestic terrorism.


Well, no, local police departments are tasked with addressing local crime, which can in some cases involve terrorism, but that is not their forte or scope. The FBI is the agency tasked with combating terrorism on a national level, which they sometimes do in cooperation with local law enforcement agencies; but it's still primarily their responsibility.

A related element, though perhaps not obviously related, is that the "terrorists" that are home grown are, with rare exceptions, lone wolf whackos. They are just people who go off the deep end, and have guns easily accessible when they do. Until they take that plunge into madness, there's nothing to investigate. There's no coordinated activity. There's no "chatter" to pick up on.


There is one small part of this which is true but misleading, while the rest is patently false.

First, there are a lot of domestic terrorist organizations; the overwhelming majority of which are white supremacist.

Second, the true "lone wolf" terrorists are rare, and are not "whackos" in the sense of being mentally ill. Nearly all solo terrorists have been radicalized either directly by an existing organization or individual, or through a stochastic pipeline, as noted in this thread: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=336883
The FBI is aware of the increasing importance of stochastic terrorism channels, as noted by a bulletin they released and which is linked later in that thread.

Third, these individuals do very often telegraph their intentions via social media; and there have been numerous cases of those around them attempting to alert appropriate law enforcement agencies, only to be rebuffed, or given only cursory attention. That said, a number of such terrorist incidents have been investigated and prevented by the FBI and other agencies.

To the extent that it's possible, the FBI will do a little bit of surveillance of creepy people who get together and act like they are planning something. They monitor social media, or ask for the public to do it and report things, but generally, the spree killers were viewed as eccentric, but harmless, the day before they become spree killers.


Again, not true, as noted above. The problem isn't that such people cannot be found and monitored because they don't telegraph their actions, the problem is that the US government has delisted white supremacist domestic terrorism as a priority, and has either decreased funding to domestic terrorism watch programs, or eliminated such programs entirely. The US government is not interested in preventing white supremacist terrorism, or even acknowledging it exists, for some reason which I think those paying attention can guess at. A lot of social media platforms have been equally reluctant to acknowledge and address white supremacist terrorist communications, at least not to anywhere near the extent that they have cracked down on Islamic terrorist communications, which is weird until you realize that nearly all of those platforms are owned and run by white men who are predominantly Trump supporters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/04/opinion/mass-shootings-domestic-terrorism.html

"Incel" terrorism is a bit different, but even then is as much ideologically as emotionally driven, has an increasingly effective radicalization pipeline, and many "Incels" are now being recruited by white supremacists.

It's kind of hard to get together a really big plot while hiding in the midst of a civilization that is hostile to your activities. i.e. It's hard to get together the Committee to Attack America in suburban America, so the domestic terrorists rarely manage to pull off anything significant.


This is weaseling. In fact, domestic terrorists pull of a lot of significant attacks, and that number is increasingly rapidly at the same time the US government is refusing to acknowledge the threat.

So, in summary, I don't think it has anything to do with some of what you labelled as motivation. It's not about the means of death, or the identity of the killers, or even the ideology that drives them. It's really about the circumstances where they operate.


Well, no. That's a gross and misleading oversimplification. In fact it's about all of those factors, particularly the ideology. It's also about notoriety, particularly for the Incel types. The media sensationalization of such events, combined with the radicalization rhetoric, drives the desire of the terrorists to be seen as heroes or martyrs to the cause; which increases the likelihood of acting on their ideology. An ideology which is also driven or exacerbated by a sense of entitlement and loss of privilege.

And the more the problem is ignored, minimized, or mishandled, the worse it is going to get.
 
It turned out that Posse Comitatus wouldn't let him send in the Army to pacify the city. Who knew crime prevention could be so complicated?

President Eisenhower used the 101st Abn. to calm down Little Rock in the wake of Brown v Board of Education:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Rock_Nine#Armed_escort

Woodrow Wilson Mann, the mayor of Little Rock, asked President Eisenhower to send federal troops to enforce integration and protect the nine students. On September 24, the President ordered the 101st Airborne Division of the United States Army—without its black soldiers, who rejoined the division a month later—to Little Rock and federalized the entire 10,000-member Arkansas National Guard, taking it out of Faubus's control.[9]
 
President Eisenhower used the 101st Abn. to calm down Little Rock in the wake of Brown v Board of Education:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Rock_Nine#Armed_escort

Woodrow Wilson Mann, the mayor of Little Rock, asked President Eisenhower to send federal troops to enforce integration and protect the nine students. On September 24, the President ordered the 101st Airborne Division of the United States Army—without its black soldiers, who rejoined the division a month later—to Little Rock and federalized the entire 10,000-member Arkansas National Guard, taking it out of Faubus's control.[9]

Though that isn't actually enforcing laws, that is providing security and the like, rather like they do after a natural disaster. If they were there to deal with criminals directly that would be illegal.
 
This is weaseling. In fact, domestic terrorists pull of a lot of significant attacks, and that number is increasingly rapidly at the same time the US government is refusing to acknowledge the threat.

Name one.


Well, let's define some terms. Certainly if someone you know dies in an attack, it's pretty significant. If there's a high body count, it's pretty significant. However, that's not what I meant. I meant a coordinated attack that is part of some sort of operation, as opposed to an individual who conceives of an attack all by himself. So, using that definition, when has there been that sort of significant terrorist attack in the US? Even Tim McVeigh and his cohorts just barely manage to be on the fringe of that definition. Of course, there's 9/11. Anything else?

What we have a little bit more of is what you might consider "radicalized" individuals. They read hate speech on the internet, or even attend meetings/parties/rallies, and it makes them just so darned mad that they figure they have to go out and kill some of those bastards, whoever those bastards might be. It sounds like the El Paso shooter was like that. (To be honest, I don't know. I left on vacation the day of the shooting, and was without TV or internet for a week, and I haven't done more than just skim some of the headlines since.) Dylan Roof was like that. So was the baseball shooter who shot up the GOP congressional baseball practice.

I think the best example of a coordinated home grown terrorist attack lately was the clowns who took over that wildlife refuge in Oregon, but fortunately they didn't kill anyone (and were acquitted?!?!?). Anything else?
 
Well, let's define some terms. Certainly if someone you know dies in an attack, it's pretty significant. If there's a high body count, it's pretty significant. However, that's not what I meant. I meant a coordinated attack that is part of some sort of operation, as opposed to an individual who conceives of an attack all by himself. So, using that definition, when has there been that sort of significant terrorist attack in the US? Even Tim McVeigh and his cohorts just barely manage to be on the fringe of that definition. Of course, there's 9/11. Anything else?


You clearly don't understand how terrorism works. 9/11 was an anomaly, it's not even remotely characteristic of terrorism worldwide, let alone in the US. It was unprecedented in size and scope, and extremely unlikely to ever happen again.

You're clearly redefining terms to suit your predetermined outcome, rather than using standard definitions to understand the scope and reach of the problem. I'll stick with the definitions that the experts used. Any terrorist attack that can be classified as a "mass murder" is significant; because that is what terrorism has always been, throughout history, small attempts at mass murder by a few individuals, sometimes affiliated with larger organizations.

Terrorist organizations are not the big, shadowy corporate entities you seen in James Bond movies. They're loose affiliations of people with a common aim. Traditionally the structure of the largest terrorist organizations has been a single person (usually a charismatic religious or political leader), and/or a small coterie of officers/lieutenants, rarely more than a dozen or so. These leaders recruit a handful of operatives directly, or a handful of regional leaders who recruit a handful of operatives each. All organized in a cell structure, with cells typically limited to around 3-4 people. Such an organization, if bankrolled by a national government (such as Iran) or a particularly wealthy individual (such as bin Laden and Al Qaeda) can run up to a few hundred people worldwide.

Domestic terrorist organizations are nowhere near that large. the overwhelming majority of terrorist attacks manage a dozen or two victims. The rare larger attacks involve highly specific types of attacks targeting highly-concentrated groups of victims, such as airplane bombings. These types of attacks are becoming increasingly rare, as targets are hardened, and tactics change.

As has been pointed out multiple times, that's the old model of terrorism; a model which has been changing rapidly. The old organizations are becoming less effective and less important. The new face of terrorism is becoming increasingly dependent on the stochastic model for inciting and recruiting, so you're very rarely going to see anything on the level of any of the bigger historical attacks, which are not that common.

Historically, there have been less than 30 total attacks in the last 50 years worldwide which claimed more than 200 victims per incident. The overwhelming majority of these have been airplane or train bombings; paramilitary groups in war-torn regions like Syria, Iraq, or Somali; or militant uprisings in developing nations like Nigeria, Chechnya, or India. In fact, the overwhelming bulk of the biggest terrorist attacks in the last 50 years have been these militant uprisings and paramilitary actions in the developing world.

In fact, even for attacks claiming over 100 people, in the last 50 years there have only been 6 that occurred outside of a developing nation and/or war-zone, or were not linked to separatist uprising (eg, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Iraq, India, Russian-occupied territories, Pakistan, etc.).

Of those 6, two were airline bombings, one was the 11/15 Paris attacks, one was the 2004 Madrid train bombing, and the other two were Oklahoma City and 9/11.

By comparison, the various right-wing extremists don't kill as many, but there have been over a dozen such attacks in the US the last two years alone. And the number of attacks has been steadily increasing year over year since 2016, both in the US and worldwide. So far the Christchurch shooting has been the largest, with 51 victims total, but the body count continues to rise while the US government does nothing to stop it, and even refuse to acknowledge it's existence. The problem is only going to get worse, and it's only a matter of time before another Oklahoma City happens. There's a good deal of evidence that if Trump does not get re-elected next year, that there will be a wave of white supremacist terrorism erupt nationwide (he's certainly doing all he can to encourage it).
 
ISIS put it in plaint text in their own newsletters. The model is to radicalize disaffected youth from oppressed communities inside the target and amplify the message of their identity, their perspectives, and their values, their "way of life" coming to an end. Lots of imperative phrases like "we can't sit idly by" and "it must be stopped (by any means)."

So someone goes out and does the unthinkable. Here's the where the actual design kicks in. We inevitably find their manifesto or their browsing history and people deepen their distrust and abuse of the perpetrator's peer group. That pushes more of them closer to taking action as the feelings of isolation and societal betrayal ring more and more true. Which means more attacks, and thus more fuel for the hate machine against the group.

I'd be interested to see numbers, but I have a feeling that the majority of attacks from those of non-European descent are natural citizens (2nd/3rd gen) or naturalized after having come over at a very young age. They grow up being told "we're a melting pot" and pluralism as a cultural ideal. Then, usually from mid-adolescence on, live a life that makes those promises a lie that is spit on dozens of times a day from their point of view. All the puppet master wants is a few sparks going off close together to frighten people enough to keep the cycle of retribution going.

White nationalism has followed suit. The names of organizations that promote every bit the equivalent messaging -of the "dire" need for "bold" actions to be taken by "patriots" to stop the "end" of the free world- are mentioned in this thread and some of the dingbat logic they broadcast makes it into water cooler discussions around this country thousands of times a day.
 
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the body count continues to rise while the US government does nothing to stop it, and even refuse to acknowledge it's existence. The problem is only going to get worse, and it's only a matter of time before another Oklahoma City happens. There's a good deal of evidence that if Trump does not get re-elected next year, that there will be a wave of white supremacist terrorism erupt nationwide (he's certainly doing all he can to encourage it).

It's also worth pointing out that in addition to outright white supremacists, there's also a growing domestic terrorism threat from the "patriot movement" - the various sovereign citizens, militias, radical Mormons, and other groups with an anti-government slant. These groups have a fair amount of overlap with white supremacy, but they're not entirely the same thing, and they're equally as big of a threat. Perhaps even more, because government institutions have done more to explicitly support those groups (aquittals for the Bundy standoffs, Trump pardoning the Hammonds, the Oathkeepers teaming up with OR senators, etc).
 
So what if the bulk of inner city crime is gang related?

How is the so-called rise in white supremacist mass killings (50 per year?) worse than the thousands killed each year by gangs? The victims are no less dead because the killers were poor or in gangs.

Spike in the Chicago crime rate? There are thousands of gang related shootings every year all over the country. Spike in Chicago? Try LA then. They have a daily column listing the shootings that occur there.

We're talking about thousands of gang killings vs mass shootings by white supremacists. There is no comparison to be made except to say that there are vastly more of one than the other.

One is making headlines, the other is rarely discussed. That may be the problem.

Wake me up when these white supremacist mass killings overtake death by lightning strikes by a significant amount.

ETA:
2015 and 2016 had more mass whitey shooting deaths than 2018. There is no rise, the numbers have been around 50 for quite some time. The numbers are pretty stagnant and low. Unfounded hysteria.

246 dead, 979 injured, so far this year.
Not all classified as "whitey" killings, but a lot more than your mythical 50 number.
 
246 dead, 979 injured, so far this year.
Not all classified as "whitey" killings, but a lot more than your mythical 50 number.

mgidm86 was talking specifically about white supremacist mass killings. You quoted a number related to all mass killings, the vast majority of which had nothing to do with white supremacy.

I doubt I'll be able to tell from the list how many were related to white supremacy, but I'm going to guess that it is, in fact, 50 or less. I'm thinking the El Paso shooter made a really, really, big bump in the white supremacist killings for the year, but he made a very, very, small bump in the overall gun violence deaths for the year.

ETA: As expected, looking through the list there was no way to get a number for deaths related to white supremacists.
 
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In other words, no.


I provided you a list, you can go watch the news any day to see the latest report of white supremacist and other significant right-wing terrorist attacks.

Your refusal to acknowledge the evidence presented, in typical conservative troll fashion, is noted. Have fun with your denialism.
 
According to this report

https://www.adl.org/media/12480/download


from the Anti-Defamation league, there were 313 extremist murders from 2009-2018, 76% of which were committed by white supremacists, or people expressing some sort of sympathy with white supremacists.

That's 24 per year. Last year there were 39.

So, yeah, mgi's 50 is pretty mythical. It overstates the problem in a big way.




By the way. Sometimes people wonder why I stand up for "the wrong side" in some of these disputes. It's because I think the best way to analyze and understand problems is truthfully. If we say that there are hundreds of white supremacist killings, when there are in fact 39, it doesn't do any good.

39 is bad. 39 is real bad. We aren't saying things are ok if we say that white supremacists killed 39 people, but we are telling the truth, which is not the case if we engage in hyperbolic rhetoric that exaggerates the problem.
 
I provided you a list, you can go watch the news any day to see the latest report of white supremacist and other significant right-wing terrorist attacks.

Your refusal to acknowledge the evidence presented, in typical conservative troll fashion, is noted. Have fun with your denialism.

I must have missed it. I looked for a list, or a link to a list, and didn't see one.


Anyway, there's a danger that this will go way too far afield from the thread topic. Let's see if I can pull it back. Do you think there are concrete steps that law enforcement, the FBI, or some other government agency can and should take, related to right wing (or some other wing) extremism, that would reduce the number of mass shootings, or the body count from them?

I think it's pretty rough. Yeah, people like the El Paso shooter were influence by right wing rhetoric on the internet (including Donald Trump's Twitter feed, I would guess), but I don't know how to put curbs on anti-immigrant rhetoric without putting curbs on free speech. Likewise with racist rhetoric, or anti-GOP/anti-Trump rhetoric, which also fuels terrorism, albeit in much smaller numbers.
 
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