Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This.

Bizarrely, the cult has become imbued with the idea that No Deal is somehow a goal to be achieved, instead of simply marking a failure to build the bridge before the hurtling train arrives.

Its a goal to be achieved because it means giving the EU the finger and being 'freeeeeee' and luckily they don't have to shoulder the blame because the current pecking order for pointing the finger (and this is only today) is:

1. The EU - for not just agreeing to all of the Brexiteers mutually exclusive and unclear wishes

2. The Remainers who didn't vote for May's deal and forced all this upon us (but curiously not the ERG or DUP)

3. The Irish. For being a country

4. Muslims. Because for some people it's always the Muslims

5. The Jews. Because for some people it's always the Jews.

6. Scotland. For wanting to stay in the EU and not just doing what England tells us to do.

.
.
.

106549. The people who actually made it happen.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Bojo now refuses to even meet with the EU side unless they throw away the backstop.

I think he's playing this backwards. Threatening to call a lot and come over for frequent visits will get them offering concessions.

 

[ceptimus]

I disagree. No point in wasting time talking to them as long as they maintain that the withdrawal agreement cannot be changed. Better spend that time preparing for leaving on October 31st.

 

[dudalb]

Reading this morning that if a VONC was passed prior to Oct 31 and an election had to be held around that time that an extension to the Brexit deadline would be legally required (or at least the Gov would have to ask for one)

Of course the ERG and other Brexiteers don't like the idea, because they only believe in democracy when it suits them.

You seem to be just about the only person here who sees a VONC as anything more then a useless gesture that has zero chance of succeeding.

 

[dudalb]

I disagree. No point in wasting time talking to them as long as they maintain that the withdrawal agreement cannot be changed. Better spend that time preparing for leaving on October 31st.

Dear Leader Boris is always right......

 

[p0lka]

Dear Leader Boris is always right......

to be fair to ceptimus, they made a point.
Why bother meeting people to try and change their minds if they have made it clear their minds wont be changed?

Seems Boris is trying to call their bluff, or at the least trying to see if there is a bluff to be called, who knows.

It does makes sense though to not go to the table unless you know there's something to be gained by going to the table, what's the point otherwise?

 

[Amazer]

to be fair to ceptimus, they made a point.
Why bother meeting people to try and change their minds if they have made it clear their minds wont be changed?

Seems Boris is trying to call their bluff, or at the least trying to see if there is a bluff to be called, who knows.

It does makes sense though to not go to the table unless you know there's something to be gained by going to the table, what's the point otherwise?

Quite a gamble to take, considering the weak and publically known position that the UK finds itself in.

First of all, despite BoJo being a new PM, the numbers in parliament haven't changed. There's no majority that supports no-deal.

Secondly, despite all the bluster about no-deal preparations we all know that the UK just won't have the manpower, infrastructure and procedures in place to handle a no-deal exit from the EU.

And finally, there is an expectation that the UK is a somewhat responsible country and will live upto it's various obligations (such as those arising from the GFA).

 

[ceptimus]

Remember that much of this "won't support no-deal" posturing is just code for "only remain is acceptable." The SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour parties all say they won't support no-deal and won't vote for the current deal nor any other deal negotiated by the Tories.

If the opposition maintain their current position, then it means that 100% of Tories have to vote in favour of any deal for it to pass: the only way that can happen is for the EU to agree to removing or time-limiting the backstop - which they probably won't do.

So it seems that no-deal or a general election are the possible outcomes right now. No-deal can happen either because Boris manages to force it through, or the EU refuse to grant a further extension.

A general election requires either a vote of no confidence, or the House of Commons somehow managing to pass legislation that prevents no-deal - which (in my opinion) would then trigger Boris into calling a general election. Since the outcome is the same (in my opinion) for both routes, I find it difficult to understand why remainers would attempt the more difficult and slower legislative route.

A general election could lead to no-deal, remain, or something else - but either way will certainly result in more delay first, during which time the economy will continue to suffer. So the economy can suffer either by no-deal or delay: take your pick.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Remember that much of this "won't support no-deal" posturing is just code for "only remain is acceptable." The SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour parties all say they won't support no-deal and won't vote for the current deal nor any other deal negotiated by the Tories.

If the opposition maintain their current position, then it means that 100% of Tories have to vote in favour of any deal for it to pass: the only way that can happen is for the EU to agree to removing or time-limiting the backstop - which they probably won't do.

So it seems that no-deal or a general election are the possible outcomes right now. No-deal can happen either because Boris manages to force it through, or the EU refuse to grant a further extension.

A general election requires either a vote of no confidence, or the House of Commons somehow managing to pass legislation that prevents no-deal - which (in my opinion) would then trigger Boris into calling a general election. Since the outcome is the same (in my opinion) for both routes, I find it difficult to understand why remainers would attempt the more difficult and slower legislative route.

A general election could lead to no-deal, remain, or something else - but either way will certainly result in more delay first, during which time the economy will continue to suffer. So the economy can suffer either by no-deal or delay: take your pick.

The Indicative Vote on a customs union was so razor-thin you can't credibly say that that remain is really the only standard the opposition rallies around. Really, given that pummeling the EU is a winning strategy for the Tories, I don't see why the hell not. There's years of outrage over every square kilometer of the North Sea and every sub-clause of the deal as it is slowly hammered out over a decade.

"You must give us a majority, we will stay strong in these negotiations, unlike our opposition, who will sell our interests away to their Euro friends for a few trinkets!"

 

[Lothian]

Remember that much of this "won't support no-deal" posturing is just code for "only remain is acceptable." The SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour parties all say they won't support no-deal and won't vote for the current deal nor any other deal negotiated by the Tories.

If the opposition maintain their current position, then it means that 100% of Tories have to vote in favour of any deal for it to pass: the only way that can happen is for the EU to agree to removing or time-limiting the backstop - which they probably won't do.

So it seems that no-deal or a general election are the possible outcomes right now. No-deal can happen either because Boris manages to force it through, or the EU refuse to grant a further extension.

A general election requires either a vote of no confidence, or the House of Commons somehow managing to pass legislation that prevents no-deal - which (in my opinion) would then trigger Boris into calling a general election. Since the outcome is the same (in my opinion) for both routes, I find it difficult to understand why remainers would attempt the more difficult and slower legislative route.

A general election could lead to no-deal, remain, or something else - but either way will certainly result in more delay first, during which time the economy will continue to suffer. So the economy can suffer either by no-deal or delay: take your pick.

It is economic suffering that is being delayed. No deal will lead to 50 years of suffering (Rees-Mogg) or 30 (BoJo). Yesterday the pound dropped significantly against the dollar as the likelihood of no deal rose. If we do leave it will see further falls.

 

[The Don]

This.

Bizarrely, the cult has become imbued with the idea that No Deal is somehow a goal to be achieved, instead of simply marking a failure to build the bridge before the hurtling train arrives.

Ah, but the expectation is that once a no-deal Brexit has been achieved, the EU will finally realise that they need the UK more than we need them and wil come cap in hand - and we will snub them because of the fantabulous new trade deal we have with Mr Trump (and the tens of other deals that will follow) - which means that the revised offer will be even more in out favour. We'll get more benefits than being in the EU and no obligations.

That sort of reasoning reminds me of the (fictitious ?) headline

FOG IN CHANNEL - EUROPE CUT OFF

 

[Tolls]

And now the farmers are starting to panic.
Maybe they'll finally realise they've been taken for mugs by the Faragists.

 

[The Don]

Boris will today assure the Welsh farmers that, thanks to the great trade deals he'll be getting (including the one with the US that, according to Donald Trump will triple or quadruple trade) that everything will be just fine.

Boris Johnson will make his first visit to Wales as prime minister on Tuesday, as he tries to rally support for his plan for farming after Brexit.

He is expected to promise agriculture will thrive with new trade deals.

It follows the Farmers' Union of Wales president warning of "civil unrest" in rural areas if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49151870

Well that's 1% of GDP sorted then

 

[The Don]

Quite a gamble to take, considering the weak and publically known position that the UK finds itself in.

First of all, despite BoJo being a new PM, the numbers in parliament haven't changed. There's no majority that supports no-deal.

Secondly, despite all the bluster about no-deal preparations we all know that the UK just won't have the manpower, infrastructure and procedures in place to handle a no-deal exit from the EU.

And finally, there is an expectation that the UK is a somewhat responsible country and will live upto it's various obligations (such as those arising from the GFA).

As regards that last point, I think that ship has sailed. Brexiteers have already stated that they are prepared to renege on the UK's financial obligations, tear up the Good Friday agreement and withdraw from the ECHR, I think that any suggestion that a Brexiteer-led UK is a responsible country is wide of the mark.

 

[Tolls]

Except, as the union said, without a European deal they're shafted.
A US deal will do nothing to cure that, especially since any deal that would be "good" would take years to achieve during which time they would go bust. And any deal that could be done quickly (out of desperation) would be one-sided towards the US, and hence they'd go bust anyway.

If they believe anything he says then the bloody fools deserve everything they get.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Quite a gamble to take, considering the weak and publically known position that the UK finds itself in.

First of all, despite BoJo being a new PM, the numbers in parliament haven't changed. There's no majority that supports no-deal.

Secondly, despite all the bluster about no-deal preparations we all know that the UK just won't have the manpower, infrastructure and procedures in place to handle a no-deal exit from the EU.

And finally, there is an expectation that the UK is a somewhat responsible country and will live upto it's various obligations (such as those arising from the GFA).

Responsible countries don't end up with people like Johnson as PM or Trump as president. The GFA is no more meaningful than the Iran Deal or the nuclear weapons treaty Trump tore up.

 

[Vixen]

Boris will today assure the Welsh farmers that, thanks to the great trade deals he'll be getting (including the one with the US that, according to Donald Trump will triple or quadruple trade) that everything will be just fine.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49151870

Well that's 1% of GDP sorted then

Who remembers the miners' riots? (Or the scenes as portrayed in 'Billy Elliott'.)

 

[Vixen]

Except, as the union said, without a European deal they're shafted.
A US deal will do nothing to cure that, especially since any deal that would be "good" would take years to achieve during which time they would go bust. And any deal that could be done quickly (out of desperation) would be one-sided towards the US, and hence they'd go bust anyway.

If they believe anything he says then the bloody fools deserve everything they get.

Who wants to fill in a 32-page US IRS tax form every time they appoint a supplier or become one?

You will lose the will to live.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Who wants to fill in a 32-page US IRS tax form every time they appoint a supplier or become one?

You will lose the will to live.

After three years of this ****, what makes you think we still have it?

Dave

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Except, as the union said, without a European deal they're shafted.
A US deal will do nothing to cure that, especially since any deal that would be "good" would take years to achieve during which time they would go bust. And any deal that could be done quickly (out of desperation) would be one-sided towards the US, and hence they'd go bust anyway.

If they believe anything he says then the bloody fools deserve everything they get.

They voted for bloody Brexit so they deserve it anyway.