But then this weird thing called “red shift” began to happen here, starting in a small way in 1998 but exploding after HAVA was passed in 2002.
For example, in the 2016 election, the exit polls showed Hillary Clinton carrying Florida by 47.7 percent to Trump’s 46.4 percent, although the “actual”counted vote had Trump winning by 49.0 percent to 47.8percent.Trump gained 2.5percentage points. . . somehow.
In North Carolina, exit polls showed Clinton winning 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent, but the votes that were counted turned out at Trump 49.9 to Clinton’s 46.1, a red shift of 5.9percentage points for the GOP.
Pennsylvania’s exit polls showed Clinton won 50.5 percent to Trump’s 46.1 percent, but when “eligible” votes were counted, Trump carried the state 48.8percent to 47.6 percent — a red shift of 5.6percentage points.
In Wisconsin, it was Clinton beating Trump in the exit polls 48.2 percent to 44.3 percent, but the “real” count put Trump over the top 48.8 percent to 47.6 percent, a red shift of 5.1percentage points.
Perhaps even more interesting, in blue states not run by Republican Secretaries of State, there is virtually no shift at all, either red or blue. The election results typically comport with the exit polls in those states.
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In June, the Roberts Supreme Court said, in a 5-4 decision involving Ohio, that Kemp and other GOP elections officials could use a voter skipping two elections as evidence the voter had moved away — and therefore could be purged from the rolls.The result:“Address hygiene”experts hired by Palast found no fewer than 340,134 Georgians wrongly purged for relocating when they’d never moved.This was repeated throughout the red states.
Thus, the biggest cause for exit poll anomalies is almost certainly purged voters who show up at the polls thinking they’re still on the rolls, voting a provisional ballot not knowing it won’t be counted, and then telling exit pollsters as they leave polling places that they voted for the Democrat.
The exit pollsters, thinking this was a “real voter who cast a real vote,” duly record it, and end up shocked when their polls don’t reflect “reality.”
This has become so problematic in the United States — uniquely among the world’s 36Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) advanced democracies — that since 2004, several polling companies have either gone out of business or quit the business of exit polls.The few remaining have shifted their focus from, “For whom did you vote?” to “What issues influenced your vote?”
" every time I read a new tweet of trump's. Pointing out the deficiencies in his statements feels like a waste of time.
