What are the chances that Donald Trump will end up in prison?

[TragicMonkey]

I think it is dangerous, very dangerous, to assume the Republicans don't have their own image to worry about. Yes they will within a metaphysical screw with the next Democratic President regardless, but how they will do is up in the air and that "how" matters more then you'd think.

Especially since right now the Dems are trying to find a way to take out Trump without the normal channels that require a majority. Any such actions are not a genie that will politely go back in the bottle.

Do you want to hand a future Republican minority lead Senate the means to take out a sitting Democratic President? Or a future 5-4 Conservative minority Supreme Court the same?

Again... "It can't get any worse" has pretty much literally never not being proven wrong.

Alls I'm saying is right now the Democrats are straining at the seems to find a way to take out Trump without a majority/political power in the places that are supposed to keep a President in line; mainly the Senate and SCOTUS. Such territory is not well mapped and should be trodden on lightly.

The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.

And yes and it's before the Barbarian Horde has the majority of elected positions inside your city walls as well.

And even beyond that there's a lot of space between "Let's be civilized" and "Let's do something guaranteed to fail and bite us in the ass later just for a feel good moral victory."

Unless someone has a plan on the table that is gonna permanently cut all political power out from under the Republicans and all social power out from under conservatives that they just haven't shared with the class yet, they aren't going away when all this is said and done. They're still going to be a major political and social force.

Questions of "How are they gonna react?" does not a "play nice" make.

 

[Segnosaur]

Why waste your time and emotional energy hating just one man. Don't you think that some of your 62,984,828 fellow Americans should also share in the punishment?

Your numbers are a bit off.

How do you figure?

62,984,828 is the number of voters who voted for Trump in the 2016 election. There was every indication that Trump was a racist prior to the election. There was every indication that he was a poor businessman prior to the election. There was every indication he was a scam artist prior to the election. Yet those 62 million people said "Yup that's who I want for president".

Trump may have been the one that was elected. He is the one spouting racist rhetoric. But without all of his supporters, he'd just be the lunatic rambling on about imaginary conspiracy theories to nobody in particular. Those 63 million voters are part of the reason the U.S. is in the situation it is in.

 

[ponderingturtle]

I think it is dangerous, very dangerous, to assume the Republicans don't have their own image to worry about. Yes they will within a metaphysical screw with the next Democratic President regardless, but how they will do is up in the air and that "how" matters more then you'd think.

Especially since right now the Dems are trying to find a way to take out Trump without the normal channels that require a majority. Any such actions are not a genie that will politely go back in the bottle.

Do you want to hand a future Republican minority lead Senate the means to take out a sitting Democratic President? Or a future 5-4 Conservative minority Supreme Court the same?

Again... "It can't get any worse" has pretty much literally never not being proven wrong.

Alls I'm saying is right now the Democrats are straining at the seems to find a way to take out Trump without a majority/political power in the places that are supposed to keep a President in line; mainly the Senate and SCOTUS. Such territory is not well mapped and should be trodden on lightly.

Hell he has given up on the idea that the supreme court matters and republicans are OK with that, so can we at least say that american democracy with the idea of separation of powers and checks and balances is now dead?

Ignoring the supreme court isn't going to get republicans to turn on him, so sure it can get worse but of course we are already getting worse and worse. We are damned no matter what I guess.

 

[JoeMorgue]

We are damned no matter what I guess.

Again if your argument really is "All is lost" fine, but don't act like that's not what your argument is.

I'm almost tempted to start really asking people if they honestly just think Trump has won and everything they are saying is just a veiled code word for "Screw with him as much as possible in the small amount time we have left."

 

[Segnosaur]

And everyone knows if we punish a sitting or recently departed Republican President, that's it. We're done. The Republicans will to save face try to take down the next Democratic President. Their honor will demand it.

The problem with that argument is that an actual arrest/incarceration of a recently departed Democratic president would actually have to get past the legal system (which sort of requires a crime of some sort be committed). Republican congress-critters cannot just "lock 'em up"; charges have to be brought by a prosecutor/grand jury, and then they would have to be convicted by a jury.

Now, there is the possibility that a republican-controlled congress might try to impeach (even if they couldn't jail) a democratic president. But, if they haven't done anything wrong, it could backfire on the republicans (as we saw Clinton's popularity increase after his impeachment.)

Impeachments, indictments, investigations... those are running the risk of just becoming standard tools of politics like the filibuster and the government shutdowns if we're not careful. Does anyone really want to see that?

They already are. The republicans have been using those tactics for years, and even if the democrats "take the high road", the republicans will continue to use them.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Again if your argument really is "All is lost" fine, but don't act like that's not what your argument is.

I'm almost tempted to start really asking people if they honestly just think Trump has won and everything they are saying is just a veiled code word for "Screw with him as much as possible in the small amount time we have left."

No but Trump keeps winning and there are no lines that republicans will hold him accountable for. With out there being some actual line he can cross that would get republicans to turn on him he can and will keep eroding american democracy.

And the answer to that is to do nothing to stop the erosion of democracy, and that I have a problem with.

Nixon was right it is legal when the president does it and he should just have ignored all the investigations because no president will ever be held accountable for their crimes.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.

We will have to see how the upcoming civil war plays out. It is going to get far worse before it can get better.

 

[wareyin]

Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.

What suggestions were offered, again? Maybe I missed one, but I don't particularly find 'don't let the already commonly used Republican tactics become common, or the Republicans will use them' to be much of a suggestion.

 

[Belz...]

How do you figure?

62,984,828 is the number of voters who voted for Trump in the 2016 election. There was every indication that Trump was a racist prior to the election. There was every indication that he was a poor businessman prior to the election. There was every indication he was a scam artist prior to the election. Yet those 62 million people said "Yup that's who I want for president".

Trump may have been the one that was elected. He is the one spouting racist rhetoric. But without all of his supporters, he'd just be the lunatic rambling on about imaginary conspiracy theories to nobody in particular. Those 63 million voters are part of the reason the U.S. is in the situation it is in.

Ok I hadn't understood psi's point, there.

 

[JoeMorgue]

And again this all goes back to a fundamental question, have the Democrats actually tried everything within "the system" (speaking both formally and informally, both politically and socially) against Trump and... I don't think they have. Not by a long shot.

 

[Segnosaur]

And again this all goes back to a fundamental question, have the Democrats actually tried everything within "the system" (speaking both formally and informally, both politically and socially) against Trump and... I don't think they have. Not by a long shot.

Ok, what exactly do you think they should be doing?

They are opening up multiple investigations in congress, but you seem to be saying "don't do that, it will only open up the chance Republicans will also open up investigations against a Democratic president".

They can't try to work with the republicans in a bipartisan way... the way the republicans have crammed through tax legislation and senate confirmations has illustrated that point.

They can try appealing to the electorate, but with the flaws in the American electoral system (electoral college, gerrymandering, and voter suppression) that won't really go very far.

They can try presenting their message to the voters in a clear way, but as 2016 illustrated, a big part of the electorate is actually happier with the illogical racist rantings of a bigot.

So what tactics do you think the Democrats are overlooking?

 

[JoeMorgue]

Ok, what exactly do you think they should be doing?

They are opening up multiple investigations in congress, but you seem to be saying "don't do that, it will only open up the chance Republicans will also open up investigations against a Democratic president".

They can't try to work with the republicans in a bipartisan way... the way the republicans have crammed through tax legislation and senate confirmations has illustrated that point.

They can try appealing to the electorate, but with the flaws in the American electoral system (electoral college, gerrymandering, and voter suppression) that won't really go very far.

They can try presenting their message to the voters in a clear way, but as 2016 illustrated, a big part of the electorate is actually happier with the illogical racist rantings of a bigot.

So what tactics do you think the Democrats are overlooking?

And see you've already pre-excused everything so it can be dismissed.

I say win more elections, you'll throw up your hands and go "We can't because of dirty elections and gerrymandering and the electoral college and Russia."

Say do anything political, you'll throw up your hands and go "The Republicans won't let us."

So what's left other then the metaphorical guillotine?

My answer is win some elections even though the deck is stacked against you.

Get back INTO power and THEN try to change things. Don't treat those two things like the same process.

We're down hard now.

We hold the House.

They have the Presidency, the Senate, the SCOTUS, 27 out of 50 governorship, and 32 state legislatures (Dems only hold 14, 3 are divided and Nebraska's is... weird).

They are holding all the cards. Those 32 state legislatures are the ones drawing those gerrymandered districts and those 27 governors are the ones letting them do it. That 5-4 Majority on SCOTUS is what is making any legal challenge to Trump pointless. Controlling the House but not the Senate turns Congressional Democrats into Beat Cops that can patrol and investigate but not arrest or charge anyone.

Getting some of those back (even if "*Whine* they aren't playing fair *Whine*") has got to be our first priority.

But that's slow. And not sexy. And not fun. But it's what we need to do.

We need to win some elections.

 

[wareyin]

And see you've already pre-excused everything so it can be dismissed.

I say win more elections, you'll throw up your hands and go "We can't because of dirty elections and gerrymandering and the electoral college and Russia."

Say do anything political, you'll throw up your hands and go "The Republicans won't let us."

So what's left other then the metaphorical guillotine?

My answer is win some elections even though the deck is stacked against you.

Get back INTO power and THEN try to change things. Don't treat those two things like the same process.

We're down hard now.

We hold the House.

They have the Presidency, the Senate, the SCOTUS, 27 out of 50 governorship, and 32 state legislatures (Dems only hold 14, 3 are divided and Nebraska's is... weird).

They are holding all the cards. Those 32 state legislatures are the ones drawing those gerrymandered districts and those 27 governors are the ones letting them do it. That 5-4 Majority on SCOTUS is what is making any legal challenge to Trump pointless. Controlling the House but not the Senate turns Congressional Democrats into Beat Cops that can patrol and investigate but not arrest or charge anyone.

Getting some of those back (even if "*Whine* they aren't playing fair *Whine*") has got to be our first priority.

But that's slow. And not sexy. And not fun. But it's what we need to do.

We need to win some elections.

Great plan. If the Dems win enough elections to take the Senate, then they will almost certainly also take the Presidency. Of course, this is not really an answer to what they should try against Trump, as 1) they're already trying to win elections and b) the elections aren't taking place now.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Great plan. If the Dems win enough elections to take the Senate, then they will almost certainly also take the Presidency. Of course, this is not really an answer to what they should try against Trump, as 1) they're already trying to win elections and b) the elections aren't taking place now.

Well yeah the solution might not happen right this second. Sorry that's politics.

 

[wareyin]

Well yeah the solution might not happen right this second. Sorry that's politics.

If the solution happens after it isn't needed anymore, is it really a solution?

 

[JoeMorgue]

If the solution happens after it isn't needed anymore, is it really a solution?

Again short of the guillotine what's our third (or forth depending on exactly how you want to look at it) option?

You need political power for a political solution. The Dems don't have it right now.

You need to win elections for political power. That's not for another 1-3 years minimum depending how the elections play out.

I mean I guess getting enough Republicans to the table is... a Hail Mary. I mean there's been some distention in the ranks and we have seen at least one person... if not cross the aisle at least decide the stand in the middle.

Can we get enough Republicans for it to matter on a timescale that matters? I reaaaalllllyyyy doubt it but... maybe. I mean we are living in the age of "Weirder Things Have Happened."

 

[applecorped]

yes

 

[BStrong]

The Edwin Edwards line about losing an election paraphrased for fearless leader:

The only way I can lose this election go to prison is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".