Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[McHrozni]

Well yes and no.

The Conservative Party does rely on large donations from business leaders but the CBI covers all of UK business (including millions of small businesses). The large (largely pro-no-deal Brexit) donors are still willing to donate to see their project through to completion.

Maybe. But not all big business are on board - banks in particular aren't keen on a hard Brexit, though they may move operations elsewhere whatever happens.

That said, history does not end with a no-deal Brexit. Millions of small businesses means millions of jobs that will be at risk with a hard Brexit. Any PM advocating for and executing a no-deal Brexit will do so with the full knowledge it will hurt millions of people very severely, very quickly. There's a new election campaign to be fought just 2.5 years after the current departure date - plenty of time for the full effects to be felt and far too little time to have anything positive to show. BJ may not be able to, but I'm sure Tory party still has plentiful members who look that far.
The polls are already showing LibDem to be in the lead, followed by Brexit party. Labour and Conservatives come tied at third place. Something has to be done by Tories before the next election, the sooner the better.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Maybe. But not all big business are on board - banks in particular aren't keen on a hard Brexit, though they may move operations elsewhere whatever happens.

That said, history does not end with a no-deal Brexit. Millions of small businesses means millions of jobs that will be at risk with a hard Brexit. Any PM advocating for and executing a no-deal Brexit will do so with the full knowledge it will hurt millions of people very severely, very quickly. There's a new election campaign to be fought just 2.5 years after the current departure date - plenty of time for the full effects to be felt and far too little time to have anything positive to show. BJ may not be able to, but I'm sure Tory party still has plentiful members who look that far.

McHrozni

I don't think that the big banks have been major net contributors to the Conservative party for some time. Sure there are donations but they tend to go to all major parties.

The major Conservative Party donors have tended to be individual business owners like Dyson or Bamford or hedge fund owners - in other words those who are free to make such donations without significant shareholder oversight.

 

[The Don]

The polls are already showing LibDem to be in the lead, followed by Brexit party. Labour and Conservatives come tied at third place. Something has to be done by Tories before the next election, the sooner the better.

McHrozni

At this stage I wouldn't read too much into those polls - but if those numbers stay solid then perhaps the two main parties may have something to worry about.

Then again the LibDems and the Liberals before them, have often polled in the low 20's percent without gaining too many seats due to the foibles of the first-past-the-post system and the other two parties having concentrated geographic support.

 

[McHrozni]

I don't think that the big banks have been major net contributors to the Conservative party for some time. Sure there are donations but they tend to go to all major parties.

They can just withhold donations to Conservatives and call it a day. It doesn't matter if they're net contributors so long as they have the power to tip the balance of finance.

At this stage I wouldn't read too much into those polls - but if those numbers stay solid then perhaps the two main parties may have something to worry about.

Then again the LibDems and the Liberals before them, have often polled in the low 20's percent without gaining too many seats due to the foibles of the first-past-the-post system and the other two parties having concentrated geographic support.

They aren't the sole factor. Brexit party splits Tory vote. And it doesn't matter who wins, so long as the polls show both major parties have a lot to worry about. If the numbers stay solid for a few weeks, a new General Election goes out the window as a viable solution to to Brexit for either party.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

They can just withhold donations to Conservatives and call it a day. It doesn't matter if they're net contributors so long as they have the power to tip the balance of finance.

The sums involved are small (thousands or tens of thousands of pounds) compared to the major donors so they may choose to withhold support but it likely won't make a difference.

edited to add.....

from a BBC article about Conservative Party donors:

The biggest gift to the Tories - and the highest since 2014 - was £1.5m from regular donor John Gore.

The October donation was the Tony Award-winning producer's sixth contribution to the party in two years, totalling £2.6m.

Another Tory donor, Lubov Chernukhin, the wife of a former minister for Russian President Vladimir Putin, gave £146,750 in the same period.

She has given £875,882 to the party since the beginning of 2014, with the largest single donation of £161,000 in the election year of 2017.

Construction vehicle manufacturer JCB gave £666,667 and ex-Tory treasurer Michael Spencer's IPGL gave £506,188.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47392658

These days it seems to be individuals rather than corporations who are the main donors. IIRC from Private Eye, Siemens donates around £10k annually to both Labour and Conservatives.

....end edit

They aren't the sole factor. Brexit party splits Tory vote.

McHrozni

It might - unless the Conservative Party adopts a no-deal Brexit approach in which case the Brexit Party becomes pointless.

The Brexit Party is riding high in the polls following the European elections, but so were UKIP following the last European elections and that translated into much lower support, and zero seats, in the general elections. Conservative defectors to UKIP swung back to the Tories for the general election.

 

[McHrozni]

It might - unless the Conservative Party adopts a no-deal Brexit approach in which case the Brexit Party becomes pointless.

That's one danger, true. But again, the history does not end there, a no deal Brexit could well mean another election in half a year (with Corbyin coming on top) and a dissolution of the UK (Scotland and possibly NI could secede). Conservatives aren't keen on either and I'm sure fear being held responsible for it.

The Brexit Party is riding high in the polls following the European elections, but so were UKIP following the last European elections and that translated into much lower support, and zero seats, in the general elections. Conservative defectors to UKIP swung back to the Tories for the general election.

Prior to 2017 elections, UKIP had ~13% support to Labour and Tory around 30% and 40% respectively. Now Brexit party registers 22% support to Labour and Tory at 19%, with LibDems topping the list at 24%.

Suffice to say the situation materially changed to the point where comparison is weak. No, I don't think the next parliament will be a four-way affar with LibDem and Brexit vying for the top spots, I think Labour and Tory MPs will push for a solution that preserves their jobs.

As always, they have three options:

1. No-deal Brexit, that makes Brexit party irrelevant, but leeches many Labour votes to LibDem and possibly brings about a LibDem-led government with the next election.
2. No-Brexit, this one makes LibDem irrelevant, but propells Brexit party to untold heights while the two main parties suffer.
3. Another referendum, which possibly preserves the two main parties.

I think they'll opt for point 3. They may need some convincing and prodding, perhaps a lobotomy or two, but I think this will be the result. I've been wrong before, but that's the solution that has the highest chance of preserving the most MPs in their seats - which is ultimately what they care about most.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

That's one danger, true. But again, the history does not end there, a no deal Brexit could well mean another election in half a year (with Corbyin coming on top) and a dissolution of the UK (Scotland and possibly NI could secede). Conservatives aren't keen on either and I'm sure fear being held responsible for it.

It could mean another election - but only if there is a successful vote of no confidence brought against the government OR the Conservatives are so confident of victory that they press ahead (for example if Boris becomes PM and adopts a no-deal Brexit approach I can see Brexit Party support immediately switching back to the Conservatives whereas Labour will still be hurt by Corbyn's lack of support for Remain or a second referendum).

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the damage is already done. It'll be years or perhaps decades until a deal is made with the EU.

Prior to 2017 elections, UKIP had ~13% support to Labour and Tory around 30% and 40% respectively. Now Brexit party registers 22% support to Labour and Tory at 19%, with LibDems topping the list at 24%.

Suffice to say the situation materially changed to the point where comparison is weak. No, I don't think the next parliament will be a four-way affar with LibDem and Brexit vying for the top spots, I think Labour and Tory MPs will push for a solution that preserves their jobs.

As always, they have three options:

1. No-deal Brexit, that makes Brexit party irrelevant, but leeches many Labour votes to LibDem and possibly brings about a LibDem-led government with the next election.
2. No-Brexit, this one makes LibDem irrelevant, but propells Brexit party to untold heights while the two main parties suffer.
3. Another referendum, which possibly preserves the two main parties.

I think they'll opt for point 3. They may need some convincing and prodding, perhaps a lobotomy or two, but I think this will be the result. I've been wrong before, but that's the solution that has the highest chance of preserving the most MPs in their seats - which is ultimately what they care about most.

McHrozni

UKIP support was 25% after the 2014 European elections and halved for the 2017 general election. IMO the Brexit Party support will likely decline in a similar way for a general election.

I think you are completely wrong about the makeup of the parliament because both Labour and Conservative support will increase substantially as European election defectors and non-voters return to the party and both teh Brexit Party and the LibDems are punished by the first past the post system. Labour and the Conservatives will still get plenty of seats in their heartlands whereas the LibDems in particular will be runners up in a large number of seats.

Even if the LibDems were to get far more seats than in living memory, they'd still require coalition partners to form a government. The SNP and Plaid would be good fits but Labour, Conservatives and the Brexit Party are all pro-Brexit and I think you underestimate how difficult it is for the LibDems to get seats. In 2010, their high water mark for almost a century, they got 23% of the votes and 57 seats. Labour got 29% of the votes and 258 seats.

 

[McHrozni]

It could mean another election - but only if there is a successful vote of no confidence brought against the government OR the Conservatives are so confident of victory that they press ahead (for example if Boris becomes PM and adopts a no-deal Brexit approach I can see Brexit Party support immediately switching back to the Conservatives whereas Labour will still be hurt by Corbyn's lack of support for Remain or a second referendum).

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the damage is already done. It'll be years or perhaps decades until a deal is made with the EU.

If there is a no-deal Brexit under BJ, I suspect a vote of no confidence within six months will be a mere formality. Britain would cease to be a deer in the headlights and become a fly on the windshield.

BJ may not know it, but many in the party do. Enough perhaps to stop his rise in dead in the tracks.

UKIP support was 25% after the 2014 European elections and halved for the 2017 general election. IMO the Brexit Party support will likely decline in a similar way for a general election.

Things happened in between 2014 European election and 2017 GE. Namely, a referendum was promised, delivered and Article 50 invoked. This is what sapped the power from UKIP.
Furthermore, UKIP polled just over half of Conservatives or Labour. Now it's ahead of both.

I think you are completely wrong about the makeup of the parliament because both Labour and Conservative support will increase substantially as European election defectors and non-voters return to the party and both teh Brexit Party and the LibDems are punished by the first past the post system. Labour and the Conservatives will still get plenty of seats in their heartlands whereas the LibDems in particular will be runners up in a large number of seats.

Possible, we'll see. It's far too early to tell, plus the results must stand for longer than a single poll.

Even if the LibDems were to get far more seats than in living memory, they'd still require coalition partners to form a government. The SNP and Plaid would be good fits but Labour, Conservatives and the Brexit Party are all pro-Brexit and I think you underestimate how difficult it is for the LibDems to get seats. In 2010, their high water mark for almost a century, they got 23% of the votes and 57 seats. Labour got 29% of the votes and 258 seats.

Maybe. Again, the history doesn't end with the first post-Brexit election either. The country will still be a mess and in the event of a no-deal Brexit and no deal with EU and (probably) a different president, with wildly different ideas in the US, it will not be able to sort anything out either. If that's the case - and this is the most likely turn of events in a no-deal Brexit - then the steady gains of voters and defectors could continue.
The mere threat of that happening could well be enough.

McHrozni

 

[JihadJane]

Ah, British manufacturing will be wiped out by Brexit. That's all but certain now. If it takes much longer it will no longer matter whether there's a Brexit, not just hard Brexit. If the new PM asks for an extension in late October, offers a referendum and gets the necessary extension (>6 months), much of the manufacturing will likely be gone irrespective of the end result - doubly so, if the polling is close. Triply so if Farage promises to fight a result he dislikes, as he did in 2016 and we all know he will do so again. Democracy can only work when losers accept the results, after all.

But the article doesn't just say a "20% drop", it says "20% drop in one year". Things aren't Venezuela-level bad.

Yet.

McHrozni

Maybe that's because global bully USA hasn't slapped crippling sanctions on Swindon yet!

 

[The Don]

If there is a no-deal Brexit under BJ, I suspect a vote of no confidence within six months will be a mere formality. Britain would cease to be a deer in the headlights and become a fly on the windshield.

BJ may not know it, but many in the party do. Enough perhaps to stop his rise in dead in the tracks.

I don't think so. I think that the country would be in such turmoil following a no-deal Brexit that anyone proposing a vote of no confidence would be viewed as a political opportunist (particularly if, like Jeremy Corbyn, they were pro-Brexit). It would be like proposing a vote of no confidence in the middle of the second world war.

For most Conservative MPs in safe seats, there are two threats to their continued employment:

• Deselection by their rabidly pro-no-deal constituency association
• Defeat by the Brexit Party at the next election

Both of these are ameliorated by being seen to strongly advocate a no-deal Brexit. If not Boris then likely another of the no-candidates.

Things happened in between 2014 European election and 2017 GE. Namely, a referendum was promised, delivered and Article 50 invoked. This is what sapped the power from UKIP.
Furthermore, UKIP polled just over half of Conservatives or Labour. Now it's ahead of both.

UKIP always outperformed in European elections due to a combination of a smaller turnout, an opportunity to cast a protest vote, proportional representation and a lack of prominent candidates for the major parties.

The Brexit Party has no policies. Time will tell but I don't see them keeping their support - particularly if the Conservatives adopt a no-deal Brexit policy.

Possible, we'll see. It's far too early to tell, plus the results must stand for longer than a single poll.

Yes, I agree. Let's see what the opinion polls say in the autumn and beyond.

Maybe. Again, the history doesn't end with the first post-Brexit election either. The country will still be a mess and in the event of a no-deal Brexit and no deal with EU and (probably) a different president, with wildly different ideas in the US, it will not be able to sort anything out either. If that's the case - and this is the most likely turn of events in a no-deal Brexit - then the steady gains of voters and defectors could continue.
The mere threat of that happening could well be enough.

McHrozni

IMO Donald Trump will be president until 2024 (as long as his health permits) and I realise any deals need to go through Congress but as long as he is making encouraging noises about trade deals, the Conservatives can dangle that carrot.

As I've said, the LibDem's problem is that they have too uniform a geographic distribution and so in a FPTP election system their tipping point to acquiring lots of seats is far higher than for Conservatives and Labour - Maybe 30% of the poll or higher.

 

[Ian Osborne]

Interesting meme doing the rounds on Facebook: "Brexit is like watching your library being burned down by people who can't read."

 

[McHrozni]

I don't think so. I think that the country would be in such turmoil following a no-deal Brexit that anyone proposing a vote of no confidence would be viewed as a political opportunist (particularly if, like Jeremy Corbyn, they were pro-Brexit). It would be like proposing a vote of no confidence in the middle of the second world war.

For most Conservative MPs in safe seats, there are two threats to their continued employment:

• Deselection by their rabidly pro-no-deal constituency association
• Defeat by the Brexit Party at the next election

Both of these are ameliorated by being seen to strongly advocate a no-deal Brexit. If not Boris then likely another of the no-candidates.

Yes, in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal Brexit, sure, it would be a political opportunism at it's finest.

But what about after six months of basically flailling around, failling at everything and accomplishing nothing? Like Neville Chamberlain, except also directly caused by him?

There would be a new PM or if none could get adequate support, a GE.

UKIP always outperformed in European elections due to a combination of a smaller turnout, an opportunity to cast a protest vote, proportional representation and a lack of prominent candidates for the major parties.

The Brexit Party has no policies. Time will tell but I don't see them keeping their support - particularly if the Conservatives adopt a no-deal Brexit policy.

The only way Brexit Party keeps a meaningful amount of support is if there is no (adequate) Brexit by the time of new election. Brino could keep them meaningful. That's what I'm saying.

However, keep something in mind: the strength of UKIP was above and beyond their dismal electoral results. It wasn't their MPs that brought about the Brexit referendum, it was the threat of voters deserting the Tories and going over to UKIP in sufficient numbers for Labour to win the election. That threat is now alive and well, thanks to unmanaged expectations of the electorate.

IMO Donald Trump will be president until 2024 (as long as his health permits) and I realise any deals need to go through Congress but as long as he is making encouraging noises about trade deals, the Conservatives can dangle that carrot.

I wouldn't count on Trump getting reelected. Sure it's possible, but Trump won the election because he won three surprising victories - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - by razor-thin margins. His approval in all three dropped since. He's at -10 in Michigan, -13 in Iowa and at -7 in Pennsylvania. Florida was close too and recently enfranchised 1.5 million former felons. At 10% participation and breaking 2-1 for Democrats the former felons alone swing another close election away from Trump.

Heck, Trump is neck and neck against an unnamed Democrat in Texas. I don't except him to lose there, but if he has to spend resources to win Texas he's in deep, deep trouble.

Is a reelection possible? Sure it is, but I wouldn't count on it. He's currently down at least three questions on the 13-point list, Democrats need just three more - and the Republican primary may well get them one of those.

As I've said, the LibDem's problem is that they have too uniform a geographic distribution and so in a FPTP election system their tipping point to acquiring lots of seats is far higher than for Conservatives and Labour - Maybe 30% of the poll or higher.

It's a problem for them to win elections, sure. To have an effect above and beyond representation - like UKIP - being widespread is a boon.
Remember, UKIP was the key behind all this Brexit cresspool and they had exactly zero MPs.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It'll be good when we actually get some news or progress to discuss rather than these insipid bouts of navel gazing and tea-leaf reading that are being forced upon us by our friends in Parliament.

Of course, we are now stuck in limbo again while the Tories decide which cretin should be the cretin-in-chief for the next few months until they get sick of them too.

 

[Tolls]

It does feel like 2017 all over again.
Two years ago it was "yay, we've gone for article 50...so let's piss about having a general election".
In this case it's "yay, we got an extension...so let's piss about with a leadership election".

 

[Vixen]

I see that they will have new elections in Israel after Bibi was unable to put a coalition together.
Maybe he and May can cry on each other;s shoulder as members of a "Had to quit as PM because I could not make a deal" club.

Good job you didn't start a poll as to how long Bibi would last.

 

[Nessie]

Interesting meme doing the rounds on Facebook: "Brexit is like watching your library being burned down by people who can't read."

Brexit is like watching people fall over themselves to buy an investment that is too good to be true.

 

[dudalb]

Big business as a check on government power? My, things have about-turned a bit.

I think we need business and government to check each others power, if either one ever gets a permanent upper hand, it will be horrid news for the rest of us....
Fact is, both, unchecked will abuse their power greatly.

 

[dudalb]

Brexit is like watching people fall over themselves to buy an investment that is too good to be true.

Like the people of River City, Iowa swarming over themselves to buy band instruments and uniforms from Harold Hill...
Or Investors running to back Max Bialystock's new show....

 

[Vixen]

Brexit party vote - 5,248,533

Revoke petition - 6,085,807 (as of this post)

And bear in mind, up to three million EU citizens in the UK did not get a vote in the UK EU Elections.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Donald Trump has said Boris Johnson would be an "excellent" choice for the Conservative Party leadership.

In an interview with the Sun ahead of his visit to the UK, Mr Trump said: "I think Boris would do a very good job."

The US president said other candidates had sought his endorsement, adding: "I could help anybody."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48478706