Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[McHrozni]

At least Corbyn is now saying we need a second referendum (or a general election) albeit a bit bloody late.

He's been yapping about a new general election for over a year now, and a referendum if, and only IF, a new GE can't be achieved. His stance is moronic and I don't sue that word lightly. Even if got his election and Labour won (which is not at all assured), he'd be in the exact same position as Theresa May - having promised unicorns and able to deliver donkeys made of feces.

McHrozni

 

[Nessie]

Put the various parties together depending on their policy regarding leave and remain and there is still a pretty even split across the whole of the UK, with Scotland very much in favour of remain.

If there was another referendum, I think it would be a close result and suspect it would still be leave.

I think we have to leave, the issue is hard or soft Brexit. If you call The Brexit Party and UKIP hard and say 50% of the Tories and 25% of Labour are also hard leave, then there is a clear majority for a hard Brexit.

 

[IanS]

I still say that Corbyn is unappealing to UK voters - he gets similar approval ratings to the most hapless PM in living memory.

I think he probably is rather unappealing. But the party he leads is probably still more appealing than the Conservative party (whether it has Boris as it's leaders or anyone else as it's new leader) ... that's exactly what happened in the last General election, and as we have now seen with Mrs May having to resign as PM and with the results of last nights EU votes the Conservative party has suffered a massive loss of public/voter confidence.

 

[IanS]

Boris is the most popular politician in the UK. Of course he would win against Corbyn.
People seem to project their own thoughts and opinions onto the population. The fact you can see his flaws means nothing. He is a star. He is Farage squared. People don't care about competence or policy or details like not causing a national crisis. They care about how often you are on TV.

Yeah; that was not the question or the point though. The question was whether or not Boris would be able to force a No Deal exit through parliament.

And what I said about that was - I think Boris has too many enemies even within the Conservative party (let alone across all opposition MP's in the HoC) to be able to persuade more than 50% of the HoC to back him in a No Deal exit. Remember; by law this has to be voted through by a majority of MP's in the HoC.

 

[McHrozni]

Put the various parties together depending on their policy regarding leave and remain and there is still a pretty even split across the whole of the UK, with Scotland very much in favour of remain.

That's an argument for Bremain.

I think we have to leave, the issue is hard or soft Brexit. If you call The Brexit Party and UKIP hard and say 50% of the Tories and 25% of Labour are also hard leave, then there is a clear majority for a hard Brexit.

"Hard Brexit vote"
Brexit party 31.6% of total
Tory 9.1% of total, 4.6% for hard Brexit
Labour 14.1% of total vote, 3.5% for hard Brexit

(31.6+4.6+3.5)% = 39.7% for hard Brexit.

For Bremain:
LibDem 20.3%
Green 12.1%
SNP 3.6%
Plus half of Labours' 14.1% vote, I'll put that 7% for Bremain

(20.3+12.1+3.6+7)%=43% for Bremain

Nope. The elections indicate there is more support for No Brexit than for No-Deal Brexit.

Even without Labour, Bremainers and hard Brexitards are neck and neck with 39.7% to 36%, with just under 25% of the electorate wanting a Brexit, but not No Deal Brexit.

No Deal Brexit has no popular mandate, no democratic mandate and no support in Parliament. It is a complete non-starter from a democratic viewpoint. The fact a change this huge, this damaging and this unpopular is on the table at all demonstrates the painful democratic deficit in the UK.

Of course there is an easy remedy. Put No Deal Brexit vs No Brexit on a referendum, informing the electorate what either means and roll the dice. Make the referendum legally binding too, and prohibit from question being reopened again for another 10 years. That way whatever happens has a democratic mandate (of sorts) behind it.

McHrozni

 

[Information Analyst]

Put the various parties together depending on their policy regarding leave and remain and there is still a pretty even split across the whole of the UK, with Scotland very much in favour of remain.

If there was another referendum, I think it would be a close result and suspect it would still be leave.

I think we have to leave, the issue is hard or soft Brexit. If you call The Brexit Party and UKIP hard and say 50% of the Tories and 25% of Labour are also hard leave, then there is a clear majority for a hard Brexit.

Sorry, but you're absolutely wrong.

| ACTUAL | HARD LEAVE | REMAIN
Brexit Ltd | 5,244,893 | 5,244,893 |
UKIP | 549,159 | 549,159 |
Conservative | 1,510,874 | 755,437 | 755,437
Labour | 2,346,441 | 586,610 | 1,759,831
Lib-Dems | 3,366,673 | | 3,366,673
Green | 2,010,328 | | 2,010,328
Plaid Cymru | 163,928 | | 163,928
SNP | 590,947 | | 590,947
Change UK | 571,947 | | 571,947
TOTAL | 16,355,190 | 7,136,099 | 9,219,091

You could give Hard Leave all the Tory votes, and Remain would still be ahead.

 

[Nessie]

I meant the majority for hard Brexit is within those who support Brexit. Of Brexit supporters, the majority is for hard.

 

[IanS]

I think what we saw as the result of the EU votes last night (ie in the UK), was that people voted almost entirely just to show their views on Brexit. I don't suppose any of the people who voted for Nigel Farage's Brexit party did that because they are actually interested in what MP's actually do in the European parliament – it was just entirely a show of angry strength in favour of Brexit.

And similarly, the Lib Dem's and some other parties got many more votes than they normally would have done in any normal election, because they had a clear policy against Brexit and people voted tactically for them as a way of showing opposition to Fargae and Brexit.

Farage is now saying that if he has enough time to organise it, then his Brexit Party would contest a General Election. And on the basis of last nights results, that would look worrying like Farage and his party could even win a General Election in the UK … which was something totally unthinkable in Britain even a few months ago.

Of course voting might be very different in a General Election. But it's hard to escape the likely fact that a huge number of people in the UK will now vote for Brexit in any sort of election … all other issues will be irrelevant for them, and they will just vote for Farage or whoever it is that's promising a hard-line Brexit.

 

[Nessie]

The vote shows that there is still a very even split between Leave and Remain. Then, within the Leave vote, the majority want to go now with no deal, rather than continue to try and negotiate a soft Brexit.

I am frankly saddened and amazed at the size of vote for a hard brexit, despite all we know about the consequences of such. It is many turkeys voting for Christmas.

Maybe those people, who dislike the EU parliament with a passion and hate being subject to its rules, can now understand the feeling many Scots have about Westminster.

 

[Information Analyst]

I meant the majority for hard Brexit is within those who support Brexit. Of Brexit supporters, the majority is for hard.

No it isn't. See above. The numbers are obviously in Remain's favour, even with your 50/50 Tory and 75/25 Labour Remain/Hard Leave split.

 

[Information Analyst]

The vote shows that there is still a very even split between Leave and Remain. Then, within the Leave vote, the majority want to go now with no deal, rather than continue to try and negotiate a soft Brexit.

I think you need to post your calculations backing this up.

 

[BillC]

No it isn't. See above. The numbers are obviously in Remain's favour, even with your 50/50 Tory and 75/25 Labour Remain/Hard Leave split.

I think he means from those who support Brexit, a majority support a hard Brexit. The others who support Brexit support a softer Brexit.

I've no idea if this true or not, just voicing my interpretation of what Nessie has said.

 

[McHrozni]

No it isn't. See above. The numbers are obviously in Remain's favour, even with your 50/50 Tory and 75/25 Labour Remain/Hard Leave split.

He's saying that Brexit has a majority of the electorate (which is disputable, they might or might not have a plurality) and that a majority of the electorate that supports Brexit, supports a No-Deal Brexit.

I believe this latter claim. Only a small number of Brexiteers support any form of soft Brexit. This is understandable, since any and all forms of a soft Brexit will be inherently worse than Bremain.

That said, a larger portion of the electorate supports Bremain than no deal Brexit. Brexiteer logic only works if you apply it in two stages: Brexit yes/no, plurality rules; if Brexit yes then the plurality of the sort of Brexit rules, using only the electorate that supports Brexit in the first place.

It's a deeply flawed, antidemocratic idea, but that's what he's saying.

McHrozni

 

[Information Analyst]

I think he means from those who support Brexit, a majority support a hard Brexit. The others who support Brexit support a softer Brexit.

I've no idea if this true or not, just voicing my interpretation of what Nessie has said.

It's a false distinction, though. We clearly have the parties that campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket, i.e. Lib-Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Change UK (plus Sinn Fein). Then there are the openly Hard Brexit UKIP and Brexit Ltd. (plus DUP). In the middle are the Conservative and Labour, who are "officially" pro-Brexit, but whose supporters are split. Nessie even acknowledged that by suggesting a 50/50 and 25/75 split for Hard Brexit/Remain. Saying "most of those who support Leave want No Deal" is meaningless because is that's predicated on the fiction of all Labour and Conservative voters supporting Leave because that's the official party line, even when they clearly don't.

 

[Vixen]

That's an argument for Bremain.



"Hard Brexit vote"
Brexit party 31.6% of total
Tory 9.1% of total, 4.6% for hard Brexit
Labour 14.1% of total vote, 3.5% for hard Brexit

(31.6+4.6+3.5)% = 39.7% for hard Brexit.

For Bremain:
LibDem 20.3%
Green 12.1%
SNP 3.6%
Plus half of Labours' 14.1% vote, I'll put that 7% for Bremain

(20.3+12.1+3.6+7)%=43% for Bremain

Nope. The elections indicate there is more support for No Brexit than for No-Deal Brexit.

Even without Labour, Bremainers and hard Brexitards are neck and neck with 39.7% to 36%, with just under 25% of the electorate wanting a Brexit, but not No Deal Brexit.

No Deal Brexit has no popular mandate, no democratic mandate and no support in Parliament. It is a complete non-starter from a democratic viewpoint. The fact a change this huge, this damaging and this unpopular is on the table at all demonstrates the painful democratic deficit in the UK.

Of course there is an easy remedy. Put No Deal Brexit vs No Brexit on a referendum, informing the electorate what either means and roll the dice. Make the referendum legally binding too, and prohibit from question being reopened again for another 10 years. That way whatever happens has a democratic mandate (of sorts) behind it.

McHrozni

Bear in mind the sheer number of EU citizens in the UK who were denied a vote. The assumption being they would have mostly voted remain.

 

[Vixen]

Sorry, but you're absolutely wrong.

| ACTUAL | HARD LEAVE | REMAIN
Brexit Ltd | 5,244,893 | 5,244,893 |
UKIP | 549,159 | 549,159 |
Conservative | 1,510,874 | 755,437 | 755,437
Labour | 2,346,441 | 586,610 | 1,759,831
Lib-Dems | 3,366,673 | | 3,366,673
Green | 2,010,328 | | 2,010,328
Plaid Cymru | 163,928 | | 163,928
SNP | 590,947 | | 590,947
Change UK | 571,947 | | 571,947
TOTAL | 16,355,190 | 7,136,099 | 9,219,091

You could give Hard Leave all the Tory votes, and Remain would still be ahead.

Slight flaw in assumption: that Labour party voters are mostly remainers. OK, so although some may be against - or even most - a 'hard Brexit', fact is, most working class people (labour voters) are anti-EU. Can't just assume '75% are remainers', although that might be true in London and the North West, which has a large Irish population (as opposed to the North East, which is very strongly hard Brexit).

 

[Vixen]

I think what we saw as the result of the EU votes last night (ie in the UK), was that people voted almost entirely just to show their views on Brexit. I don't suppose any of the people who voted for Nigel Farage's Brexit party did that because they are actually interested in what MP's actually do in the European parliament – it was just entirely a show of angry strength in favour of Brexit.

And similarly, the Lib Dem's and some other parties got many more votes than they normally would have done in any normal election, because they had a clear policy against Brexit and people voted tactically for them as a way of showing opposition to Fargae and Brexit.

Farage is now saying that if he has enough time to organise it, then his Brexit Party would contest a General Election. And on the basis of last nights results, that would look worrying like Farage and his party could even win a General Election in the UK … which was something totally unthinkable in Britain even a few months ago.

Of course voting might be very different in a General Election. But it's hard to escape the likely fact that a huge number of people in the UK will now vote for Brexit in any sort of election … all other issues will be irrelevant for them, and they will just vote for Farage or whoever it is that's promising a hard-line Brexit.

OTOH we could be seeing the end of the Conservative party as any real force.

 

[Vixen]

The vote shows that there is still a very even split between Leave and Remain. Then, within the Leave vote, the majority want to go now with no deal, rather than continue to try and negotiate a soft Brexit.

I am frankly saddened and amazed at the size of vote for a hard brexit, despite all we know about the consequences of such. It is many turkeys voting for Christmas.

Maybe those people, who dislike the EU parliament with a passion and hate being subject to its rules, can now understand the feeling many Scots have about Westminster.

I'm not surprised. The Brexit Party is largely a media invention. Without the breath of publicity from BBC, DAILY EXPRESS, DAILY MAIL etc, it wouldn't have stood a chance. It was then social media led. Rather like the worst cringeworthy act on the X-Factor (think Wagner) or Strictly Come Dancing (think two-left-feet John Sargeant) the public climbed on the bandwagon to vote them in week after week. The same thing happened here with the Brexit Party. Nothing but a protest vote. A typically British backlash.

DAILY MAIL until recently were hard Brexit and anti-Theresa May backstop. New owner comes in: suddenly it's pro-May Withdrawal Ageement Bill, urging MPs to back it. It now headlines Farage and the Brexit Party as the new saviour. It is just rubbing our faces in how much influence it has in the elections in which way the vote goes.

 

[The Don]

Slight flaw in assumption: that Labour party voters are mostly remainers. OK, so although some may be against - or even most - a 'hard Brexit', fact is, most working class people (labour voters) are anti-EU. Can't just assume '75% are remainers', although that might be true in London and the North West, which has a large Irish population (as opposed to the North East, which is very strongly hard Brexit).

What makes you think this ?

In the referendum, Labour split 64/36 in favour of Remain and subsequent polls have shown that the support for Remain within the Labour Party has grown. I suppose that you could argue that it's just the middle-class "champagne Socialists" who are in favour of Remain and that the 25% or so of Labour supporters who are in favour of Brexit are a majority of the working class members and supporters but you's need to show your workings.

Even in the North East, a majority of Labour voters were in favour of Remain.

 

[Information Analyst]

Slight flaw in assumption: that Labour party voters are mostly remainers. OK, so although some may be against - or even most - a 'hard Brexit', fact is, most working class people (labour voters) are anti-EU. Can't just assume '75% are remainers', although that might be true in London and the North West, which has a large Irish population (as opposed to the North East, which is very strongly hard Brexit).

On the contrary, the YouGov/Times poll of 12-16 May showed that of those intending to vote Labour on Thursday, 75% backed Remain, and in fact the same percentage had previously voted that way at the Referendum. Labour voters who backed a Hard Leave were already intending to vote Brexit Ltd or UKIP, but they were only around 6% of those who intended to vote Labour at the next General Election; in contrast around 25% intended to vote for the Lib-Dems, Greens, Change UK, SNP, or Plaid Cymru on Thursday.

The bottom line is that the fear of Labour losing support in majority Leave areas appears to be totally false, because most of the people in those constituencies who voted Leave had never voted for Labour previously, anyway. The idea that Labour party voters are mostly Leavers is a complete myth.