Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

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He could have done some preparation and earned his pay by looking all this up before hand. This situation has been predicted by several pundits.

Would sort of conflict with his earlier approach of "who needs precedents anyway".
 
Rees-Mogg has tweeted he thinks leaving on the 29th with no deal is the best option.

With Mays deal off the table the choice is now no deal or ask for a long extension.

Rees Mogg is like every sterotype of an aristocratic English Villian that Hollywood has ever done.
 
Rees Mogg is like every sterotype of an aristocratic English Villian that Hollywood has ever done.

And if you will forgive an American offering an opinion, Nigel Farage appears to me to be the stereotype of a classic English twit.
 
That's why I wonder if the EU will actually allow an extension beyond July.

EU has two choices: allow an extension until the end of June, or allow a long extension of over a year, to allow for a general election or a referendum (or both). It became clear yesterday the deal can not be decided upon again in the House of Commons and Parliament stated it doesn't want a no deal.

The only remaining options are:

1. renegotiating the deal enough to be materially different, this option exists only in theory as EU already ruled that out plus there isn't enough time
2. referendum for the deal, this requires an extension of about a year at least
3. a new general election, this too would require an extension of at least one year

A sensible approach for the EU would be to offer an extension of four years. A delay this long ensures sufficient time to run a referendum if UK wants one, it also ensures at least one general election will be held in the meantime so the deal can be rerun through the parliament and hopefully pass and even after all that it still leaves enough time to renegotiate the deal entirely. It also allows UK to contest the European Elections and have their MEPs run the full term (or thereabout), limiting any problems with legality and representation.

It is possible to renegotiate the deal, if UK lets go of some self-imposed red lines. Expect any new deal to be notably worse for the UK than this one, but a different deal may still be possible - it just turns the UK into a colony of the EU, rather than a priviledged member.

If Brexit is extended by several years I expect there will be none in the end.

McHrozni
 
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One way to make the deal different enough to be voted on again would be to include a commitment to hold a referendum before going ahead with it. The EU would certainly agree an extension for that.
 
It's the three way standoff from the end of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

Unfortunately events have conspired that the middle position, which no-one wants but that probably beats the other option you don't want, gets shot first.

Yeah, the second best option is gone. So it is all or nothing for both sides now.
 
If Brexit is extended by several years I expect there will be none in the end.

Indeed. The Brexiteers surely know this so won't they act to prevent such a long extension? Do they have sufficient power to do so?

(Pardon a Yank's ignorance of British politics.)
 
And if you will forgive an American offering an opinion, Nigel Farage appears to me to be the stereotype of a classic English twit.


It's kind of complicated, Farage is definitely rich and establishment, he went to a Eaton College school but the classic English twit is more obviously upper class (think Rees-Mogg) and we generally consider our twits to be oblivious but generally good natured (don't think Rees-Mogg). Farage is more of a spiv, in the ration book days that Brexiteers think so kindly of he'd have been trading on the Black Market.
 
EU has two choices: allow an extension until the end of June, or allow a long extension of over a year, to allow for a general election or a referendum (or both). It became clear yesterday the deal can not be decided upon again in the House of Commons and Parliament stated it doesn't want a no deal.

The only remaining options are:

1. renegotiating the deal enough to be materially different, this option exists only in theory as EU already ruled that out plus there isn't enough time
2. referendum for the deal, this requires an extension of about a year at least
3. a new general election, this too would require an extension of at least one year

A sensible approach for the EU would be to offer an extension of four years. A delay this long ensures sufficient time to run a referendum if UK wants one, it also ensures at least one general election will be held in the meantime so the deal can be rerun through the parliament and hopefully pass and even after all that it still leaves enough time to renegotiate the deal entirely. It also allows UK to contest the European Elections and have their MEPs run the full term (or thereabout), limiting any problems with legality and representation.

It is possible to renegotiate the deal, if UK lets go of some self-imposed red lines. Expect any new deal to be notably worse for the UK than this one, but a different deal may still be possible - it just turns the UK into a colony of the EU, rather than a priviledged member.

If Brexit is extended by several years I expect there will be none in the end.

McHrozni

This seems a sensible and reasonable solution so nothing remotely like it has a chance of happening.
 
This seems a sensible and reasonable solution so nothing remotely like it has a chance of happening.

Well, that depends. EU has been reasonable and strategic throughout the fisasco. It can offer an extension of four years, even if UK doesn't ask for one. That or none at all, your pick.
Short of a coup the extension ensures a general election in the meantime, giving the UK at least one certain shot at resolving the issue.

May can then spend the next three years procastrinating and the next government faces the exact same problems as this one - but with a lot wiser electorate and perhaps a saner Labour party too. Corbyn may be ousted in the meantime and replaced with someone with an IQ of a pot plant (or just a pot plant). That alone should be enough to solve the issue of Brexit for a generation.

Here's the kicker - it also allows Theresa May many shots at resolving the issue her way. Jacob Ress-Mogg and the other goblins get shafted, but she can pin the blame on them - it was their votes that struck down the only possible Brext after all.

McHrozni
 
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Indeed. The Brexiteers surely know this so won't they act to prevent such a long extension? Do they have sufficient power to do so?



(Pardon a Yank's ignorance of British politics.)
The Brexiteers need do nothing. At the moment the state of the law in the UK is very clear, we leave the EU on 29th March. Parliament passed that legislation 2 years ago so to stop the UK leaving the EU will require Parliment to agree to alter the law.

I think at the moment the hard Brexiters have the upper hand as it will take positive action to stop us leaving. And as has been shown this lot can't do anything.
 
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