Medium to the Stars?

Tyler Henry doesn't do anything that can't be duplicated by someone pretending in order to fool someone. None of them do.

A quick reading for everyone in this thread:

You are uncomfortable with your finances.

You are worried about your health, or the health of a friend, or the health of a loved one, or pet.

You've been thinking about making a major purchase (car, boat, TV, vacation home, etc).

You miss a recently passed loved one.

You've been concerned about your diet.

I want my TV show. I'll do it for half.
 
A quick reading for everyone in this thread:

You are uncomfortable with your finances.

You are worried about your health, or the health of a friend, or the health of a loved one, or pet.

You've been thinking about making a major purchase (car, boat, TV, vacation home, etc).

You miss a recently passed loved one.

You've been concerned about your diet.

I want my TV show. I'll do it for half.

How do you know all this about me??? We have never even met!!
 
As far as television goes, if you believe anything without proof you're a fool. There are a bunch of ghost themed, and ghost-hunting shows that have migrated to the Travel Channel, and as I ghost hunter I don't believe any of them.
Best one I saw was on Ghost Hunter International. The team was called in to a castle in Romania, which was supposed to have previously belonged to Vlad Țepeș aka Vlad the Impaler. The place was now a hotel, and the proprieter wanted them to find out if there were ghosts in the place because apparently tourists were reluctant to stay there. The result? Of course they found no ghosts. Just like the person who was paying them wanted.
 
I'm sorry, I'm a ghost hunter...

I don't know if I qualify as a ghost hunter because I don't believe in ghosts. And never did. But back in the day, Josh Warren asked me to be a sort-of on-staff photo analyst. That's back when I didn't charge for it. And I told him up front, "I don't believe in ghosts." And his retort was that my analysis would therefore always either be a scientifically-based proposition or "I don't know." Nothing he could have said would have made me more honest.

As far as television goes, if you believe anything without proof you're a fool. There are a bunch of ghost themed, and ghost-hunting shows that have migrated to the Travel Channel, and as I ghost hunter I don't believe any of them.

The vast majority of "reality TV" is scripted, art-directed, packaged, and produced just like any other television experience. I know this from experience. Even Josh sold out.

I like Penn & Teller more because they show how the tricks are done (which made me respect magicians that much more).

I had the privilege of hanging out with those guys in the pre-******** days, before they got really famous. I had a long conversation with Teller about misdirection and how people essentially just see and believe what they want to believe. This was back when I was working heavily on the Apollo hoax stuff, where misdirection was the underpinning of the fake photo analysis that gave those hoax authors so much ammunition.

The bottom line is that science sided with Randi, not Schwartz.

The bottom line is that Schwartz ran away from science, precluding any involvement by Randi by accusing him of being biased against him. No, I do not consider Schwartz a credible authority. Not because he spurned James Randi, but because he knowingly sacrifices science on the altar of personal fame.
 
E! is by their own definition News, Entertainment News, Celebrity Gossip, Celebrity News and is "Your source for entertainment news, celebrities, celeb news, and celebrity gossip. Check out the hottest fashion, photos, movies and TV shows!"

The E in E! is entertainment and it is intended as an entertainment channel. That is if you find celebrity gossip, celebrity news and related drivel entertainment. Nowhere do they describe themselves as providing real mediums. The reason of course is because there are no real mediums.

Crew jobs in television require long mostly boring days with bursts of frenetic activity followed by more boredom and are exceptionally well paid even for the most mundane jobs. Benefits are about as good as anyone making an hourly pay gets anywhere for just about everyone (except extras) and on set work includes catering which is almost always limitless and very good. These jobs are hard fought and jealously guarded. If keeping your mouth shut about a fraud medium means keeping a 100k+ year job (that's for 26 weeks by the way) who would say anything.

Celebrities too have vested interests. Celebrity appearances are their bread and butter and they won't tip the boat and they make far more than the crew.

The industry is small and everyone knows everyone. Loose canons don't get hired - cause issues and you might as well move to Timbuktu.

The same standards mentioned upthread about no one exposing anything about this guy could be said about Yuri Geller, the Long Island fraud Theresa something and a whole host of others. Even Ancient Aliens isn't exposed by crew. For that matter wrestling isn't either and Vince McMahon admitted it was fake. Well, technically he called it scripted.
 
If this guy had the ability he claims to have it would be trivially easy for him to prove it, he would have done so, and we would not be having this discussion.

This isn't true at all. It should have been ridiculously easy to establish the existence of many pre-Clovis civilizations in North America but science could not see it because they didn't want to.

As far as "trivially easy." It is. It is on each week, and yet you can't see it.

People are very easy to impress with the simplest of tricks.

Accomplished, successful people in danger of looking foolish, being asked to accept something that goes against everything they have believe for most of their life---those people are very difficult to impress.

A hit rate statistically greater than chance, achieved under controlled conditions, is the only type of proof. No-one has ever done it.

The "hit rate" is an almost useless measurement. If I tell you your mother will die at 3pm tomorrow and she is hit by a bus and it happens, the fact she got eight other things wrong is irrelevant. The one hit she got establishes the ability.
 
The "hit rate" is an almost useless measurement. If I tell you your mother will die at 3pm tomorrow and she is hit by a bus and it happens, the fact she got eight other things wrong is irrelevant. The one hit she got establishes the ability.

I've tried that logic before. It doesn't work; the casino still wouldn't pay up.
 
The paranormal and tv share something. Neither is science in a pure sense. One not at all. Both use (or try to use) it in various ways.
Tv shows are normally pre planned to prevent the disaster that could ruin a source of advertising revenue.

You make a valid point that if Henry had a disastrous reading, and nothing resonated with his subject, E! might choose not to air it for fear of damaging future shows. Even Ted Williams hit only 400.

It is possible he could have off nights, but you wouldn't know that from the show.
 
The E in E! is entertainment and it is intended as an entertainment channel.

Well, sure, but by that same token John Oliver is entertainment too. If we say that John Oliver is intended as comedy but also provides factual information, we have to allow that Tyler Henry is intended as entertainment but also shows real clairvoyance.

Doing a thing has one connotation. Doing that same thing for an audience can have an entirely different connotation just by virtue of the audience being present. This is what undercuts the argument that Henry wouldn't be successful in Hollywood on a weekly television show unless he could really do what he says he can do. We have to keep the two disconnected. One can be successful in Hollywood doing literally anything, so long as people will watch or participate in it. The merits of the thing they're doing have to be studied separately from the fact that it attracts an audience.

The reason of course is because there are no real mediums.

And people don't really saw the lady in half either.

There are quite a number of ways to fake sawing the lady in half, or appearing to inflict other bodily trauma without really doing so. They're well known, so much so that one hardly has to delve into the tricks of magic to discover the age-old ones. They've become such a meme that there is a whole derivative branch of magic -- Penn & Teller do this a long -- based on pretending to use the old tricks but really using something entirely innovative.

And for TV magic, when the announcer says, "No camera tricks were used," what he really means is that all the camera tricks were used. The studio audience is completely in on it, too. Netflix's Magic for Humans is probably the worst-case example. It's a working-strong production that claims to use raw footage and no actors. Except that they skimped and used a second-rate VFX house. And by the second episode they're making factual claims that can easily be verified as false. It's so bad people are wondering if it's a Poe.

The point is that if someone comes along and says he's really sawing the lady in half, the history of such claims makes working strong here a non-starter. He may have a novel approach to the trick, and that's worth seeing, but he's not really doing what he claims to do. Same with Henry. He may have a novel approach, but he's not really talking to the dead. The history of such claims puts an elphantine burden of proof on Henry (and his defenders) to show he's not faking it.

Imagine having to prove that someone is cold reading. We can ensnare hot-readers pretty easily by the honeypot method. But if you're really good at cold reading, you're not doing anything more than having a conversation with someone who then subjectively concludes that you've met her standard of proof.

...on set work includes catering which is almost always limitless and very good.

A poorly-guarded craft services table is a guaranteed diet-buster. I had a sumptuous breakfast every day for a week simply by letting Aquabats use my offices as a location.

If keeping your mouth shut about a fraud medium means keeping a 100k+ year job (that's for 26 weeks by the way) who would say anything.

Which, sadly, has been a major factor in the #MeToo phenomenon. Those jobs are so hard to get and keep -- especially in Hollywood -- that the thermostat get set pretty high for the amount of illegal and unethical harassment people are willing to endure in them. The question is always asked, "Why didn't they come forward?" And the answer is that for each person who decides to make trouble over the star commenting on their bodily structure, there are about 2,000 others who will take the same job without complaining.

The industry is small and everyone knows everyone. Loose canons don't get hired - cause issues and you might as well move to Timbuktu.

The biggest problem I had branching out from STEM (as close to a pure meritocracy as you can get) into entertainment was figuring out that entertainment is almost entirely a relationship industry. It's not what you can do, it's who you know. Tyler Henry gets work probably as much for being an attractive, likable guy who gets along with the establishment as for any purported psychic ability he has. I've gotten design gigs without the people even seeing my portfolio, just on word of mouth and my knowing where to take the production designer for good local microbrews.

It doesn't matter whether the celebrity guests believe in clairvoyance, or whether they need to be put under NDA or follow a script. They don't have to take the gig. But if they do, the gig is the gig. You do what you're supposed to. Tyler Henry might be the flavor of the month, but if his show is where the eyeballs are right now, and you want those eyeballs on your face, you play along. If you pull a stunt, or decide to get all skeptical and blow the gig, all the booking agents know about it by the next day.

And in my town, there's only one credible talent agency for actors that get the big film and stage roles. If that agency drops you because you misbehaved at a gig, your career in my town is pretty much nonexistent after that. There is a great incentive for the guests to go along with the gist of the show whether they personally believe in it or not.
 
You make a valid point that if Henry had a disastrous reading, and nothing resonated with his subject, E! might choose not to air it...

It is possible he could have off nights, but you wouldn't know that from the show.

That goes without saying. Editing a show to tell the story you want to tell, from whatever footage was captured during the shoot, is the rule. There's no "might be" about it. If a guest's footage is unusable, it's not used.
 
I dismiss Schwartz's results as either faked or simply incompetent because my understanding of the scientific method tells me that's what they are.

Not until he submits to tests performed using the scientific method. Until then all we see is an entertainer's act, to be taken no more seriously than the performances of David Copperfield.

Scientists speculate pre-scientific method all the time. Continental drift was ridiculed for forty years. There was no peer reviewed testing, just one man's observations. Read Enrico Fermi's ridicule of the idea of aliens in the 1950's--there was no proof. We now know there are tens of thousands of earth-like worlds and evolution produces sentient beings in all kinds of conditions.

Somebody had to think up "dark energy" and have many informal conversations years before there was a speculative shot at the mathematics.

You'll never get to exciting discoveries or new, fantastic ideas if you insist on having everything put into concrete for you.

Can you link to the specific Schwartz papers that lead you to reject his results?

>Not until he submits to tests performed using the scientific method

Can you send the list of scientists who have offered to conduct a "scientific method" review of Henry? I think that list is zero.

The Univ of AZ offered to test John Edwards, and he accepted. Have you looked at those studies?
 
A quick reading for everyone in this thread:

You are uncomfortable with your finances.

You are worried about your health, or the health of a friend, or the health of a loved one, or pet.

You've been thinking about making a major purchase (car, boat, TV, vacation home, etc).

You miss a recently passed loved one.

You've been concerned about your diet.

I want my TV show. I'll do it for half.

WOW! 3 hits out of 4! Just uncanny. How much do I owe you?
 
This isn't true at all.
All Henry has to do is demonstrate a hit rate better than chance. Test protocols to do that are relatively simple - there are several in the challenge applications subforum I already pointed you to. Henry just needs to produce readings for a small number of people who he has not had the opportunity to research and without actually interrogating them to obtain information. Each of the subjects is then giving copies of all the readings and asked to pick out the one they think is theirs - the one that resonates with them the most. If more subjects pick out their reading than would be expected by chance - the success criteria is set in advance - the test has been passed.

As far as "trivially easy." It is. It is on each week, and yet you can't see it.
What's demonstrated each week on TV to be trivially easy is fooling people into believing things they would like to be true but aren't.

The "hit rate" is an almost useless measurement. If I tell you your mother will die at 3pm tomorrow and she is hit by a bus and it happens, the fact she got eight other things wrong is irrelevant. The one hit she got establishes the ability.
No, anecdotes are useless as evidence. Even highly unlikely coincidences do happen occasionally. A repeatable hit rate significantly greater than chance is the only reliable indication of a genuine paranormal ability.
 
That goes without saying. Editing a show to tell the story you want to tell, from whatever footage was captured during the shoot, is the rule. There's no "might be" about it. If a guest's footage is unusable, it's not used.

Could be true, not necessarily true. I believe a reason Theresa Caputo does not have a show is because she got many people wrong, and when she did hit, the information was commonplace, so people stopped watching.

The production company could have started faking it for Theresa--obviously this stuff makes money--but faking it is a very dangerous road to go down if you are trying to attract audience to your network.

There are two kinds of Medium hits: (1) your Mother tells me you had a bicycle you loved as a child, which turns out to be true and (2) your mother kept a giant bowl of buttons on a shelf in her bedroom closet. The first does not impress. The second establishes that the ability is real and not done from a cold reading. It makes up, statistically, for dozens of misses.

If the guest's footage is unusable, I'd expect to eventually hear from that celebrity guest. Great way to enhance notoriety. Google Theresa, and you see a wall of complaints from audience members. Don't find that with Henry.
 
Can you link to the specific Schwartz papers that lead you to reject his results?
I already linked you to an article that describes in detail the shortcomings of his experiments. Have you read it yet?

Can you send the list of scientists who have offered to conduct a "scientific method" review of Henry?
The JREF Million Dollar Challenge may have been wound up but there are still other prizes available to anyone who can demonstrate a paranormal ability under controlled conditions. All he has to do is apply.

There's a list of them here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
 
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Can you link to the specific Schwartz papers that lead you to reject his results?

Again shifting the burden of proof.

Unable to present any statistically controllable results for Taylor Henry's ability, you changed the subject to argue that other popular mediums had allegedly been scientifically validated. To support this, you cited a book written for a lay audience and published in the popular press. When challenged regarding the reliability of such an offering, you backpedaled and tried to declare the topic irrelevant.

Come on, now. It's either relevant or it's not. If it is, then you have the burden to lay the foundation for Schwartz' results, and in this case to address all the reasons already given why his book is not credible. If it's not relevant, then drop the subject and stick with Henry.

The Univ of AZ offered to test John Edwards, and he accepted.

No, "the university" did no such thing. One faculty member at the university did, the one who has a side gig writing popular books that purport there to be scientific evidence for the paranormal.

Have you looked at those studies?

Have you cited them here?
 
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Could be true, not necessarily true.

I guarantee you that if something happens while shooting a television show that was unexpected and not ultimately wanted by the show's producers, it will be edited out.

If the guest's footage is unusable, I'd expect to eventually hear from that celebrity guest.

Why? Do you understand that NDAs are as common in the entertainment industry as bottled water?

Great way to enhance notoriety.

No, a great way to ensure you never work in the industry again.

Don't find that with Henry.

And you're suggesting that the reason we don't find this for Henry is that he's really the clairvoyant he claims to be. You're ignoring all the other reasons that have to do with how television programs are known to be made.
 
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All Henry has to do is demonstrate a hit rate better than chance. Test protocols to do that are relatively simple - there are several in the challenge applications subforum I already pointed you to. Henry just needs to produce readings for a small number of people who he has not had the opportunity to research and without actually interrogating them to obtain information. Each of the subjects is then giving copies of all the readings and asked to pick out the one they think is theirs - the one that resonates with them the most. If more subjects pick out their reading than would be expected by chance - the success criteria is set in advance - the test has been passed.

I don't think Henry cares whether you believe him or not. Edwards took you seriously, and what did he get for his trouble? He underwent three studies at the Univ of AZ, but you reject those as insufficiently scientific. Were you going to link me to the papers you used in determining the Edwards study was inadequate?

>What's demonstrated each week on TV to be trivially easy is fooling people into believing things they would like to be true but aren't.

If it were "trivially easy," Henry would not be making a living because others would copy his technique. There are millions involved. And are you claiming that Corbett Stern Productions is involved in blatant fraud? This is surprising considering their reputation in the TV industry. Can you think of a reason why an established TV production company would risk everything on one show?

And why is E! sticking with Henry when what he does is "trivially easy?" They could save a lot of money, getting any magician off the street.
 
I don't think Henry cares whether you believe him or not.

Why would he, as long as the show is popular? You're conflating the popularity of the show with the factual validity of the claims it makes. We aren't.

Were you going to link me to the papers you used in determining the Edwards study was inadequate?

You're the one alleging that John Edwards' skills have been validated in a peer-reviewed scientific study. But you've provided no citations to any such study. You have referred only to a book published in the popular press, written for a lay audience. Do you intend to ever provide those citations?

If it were "trivially easy," Henry would not be making a living because others would copy his technique.

This assumes that the reason he gets to be on TV is because he can actually do what the show claims he can do. As we discussed, there are many reasons why some people get television shows and others do not, and very little of it has anything to do with the nominal merits.

And are you claiming that Corbett Stern Productions is involved in blatant fraud?

No one has made that claim.

This is surprising considering their reputation in the TV industry.

You don't seem to be able to demonstrate much expertise in what happens in the TV industry.

Can you think of a reason why an established TV production company would risk everything on one show?

I don't see that they're risking anything except mild embarrassment. I gave you other examples of television programs in the reality-TV genre that purport to be real, but are easily shown to be staged and/or scripted. Do you see them being held legally liable or shutting down?
 
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