The Green New Deal

[Skeptic Ginger]

Nice link Orphia. People are so politicized they want to accuse the left of socialism instead of looking at how we actually solve these problems. And to be fair, some on the left are totally blowing their framing.

 

[Orphia Nay]

I'm not taking any digs at any US parties.

Here's the full letter.

https://www.gatesnotes.com/2019-Annual-Letter

I look forward to these every year.

Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation's work is an excellent example of how the solutions to the world's problems require thinking that goes far beyond binary arguments/oppositions.

I hate the word "holistic" with a vengeance, but used correctly, theirs is an example of the sort of thinking we need.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Lambchops]

Nice link Orphia. People are so politicized they want to accuse the left of socialism instead of looking at how we actually solve these problems. And to be fair, some on the left are totally blowing their framing.

Again, there is no left-wing in USAian politics. You have a choice between a centre-right party and an extreme-right party.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

- The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, February 2019.

That's pretty ironic actually, since we do have breakthroughs in almost all of them already. Especially ironic about the agricultural breakthroughs.
We cant possibly ask people to give up their farting and belching cows, even though they are bad right?

Well...not exactly that simple is it...

How to fight desertification and reverse climate change

No fertilizers? Been done. Do it right and yields go up, not down.


India's rice revolution

Oh and that methane? It turns out that the grasslands biomes (which includes all the microbes, insects, and larger animals it supports) are actually a net sink, not a source for methane. The only biome on the planet that is a net sink for methane BTW.

What reaction can you do to remove methane

But hey, I don't have billions of dollars to hire writers to make my stupidity sound smart for the masses LOLZ

But just for a moment consider something. What do we make haber process nitrogen for fertilizers out of? You guessed it, natural gas which is mostly methane and very closely similar gasses. The reaction pulls nitrogen out of the atmosphere and then we make it into a form available to plants. Should it be such a surprise then that grassland soils' Methanotrophs, which are prokaryotes that metabolize methane as their only source of carbon and energy, also derive their nitrogen from the atmosphere too? And that the reason cattle are causing AGW is because we removed them from the grasslands where they belong, and fatten them up in feedlots? And the real cause of that global warming is actually the plowing up of the grasslands and replacing it with cornfields? Just maybe it's not the cow's fault, but rather we humans not understanding the biological carbon cycle very well when we devised these industrialized agricultural systems? Maybe?..............

 

[Zambo]

Universal Basic Income - if you want that you damn well better build one helluva wall because everyone in the world will want to come here.

What successful financial model will this oncoming socialist state base itself upon, because I don't see one.

Suppose there really does come a day where automation takes a significant number of jobs away. What are the people with no jobs going to do?

Try and make money in other ways? Have some fun? People (until the latest generation) are not wired to sit around and do nothing. [ETA: kill each other!]

Having fun costs money most of the time. But there aren't enough fun venues to handle this huge new crowd of non-workers. We'll need more fun venues which equals more jobs (assumes people will still go outside at all). Maybe restaurants, theaters, casinos. Even if most of these jobs are also automated someone still has to build, own and maintain the business.

It may not be profitable or practical to automate many things, even if it's possible. I still prefer talking to a cashier at the store.

Maybe we will have more small business owners. Business owners who work and make money and don't require the basic income.

We've been automating industry for a very long time and we still have plenty of jobs. Yes, one day one person could build a machine that can build anything and everything and fix itself forever, but that doesn't mean people can't try and make money somehow.

If automation does take over then I'm for killing off people until we reach a perfect jobs:humans ratio. Hell I'm for it now! Stupid people first.

I totally don't know what I'm talking about, but my beer seems to.

I guess I'm kidding about the "killing people" thing, but catch me on the right day...

Was all that in response to my 3 word post "work in progress"?

I have a couple of points to add. Let's take a country like Dubai, how is it that you can have people working side-by-side or in competing companies but somehow depending on their nationality get paid a different amount. To explain a bit, we could have a British manager getting paid a UK level salary, tax free with an overseas allowance, but an Indian in a equivalent position has a salary calculated from an Indian base rate.

Now if we look at this on a global level why do workers in the automobile or steel industry get paid more in one country than another. It would seem that eventually the cost of cars and steel would result in levelling of prices and salaries.

The only way to keep high income rates in the "rich" countries is to automate manufacturing processes to keep costs down, manufacture high value items that other countries cannot compete in (aviation and weapons for example), move into financial and business services using the education level of the workforce to its best advantage.

Another way that seems it might work in the short term is a minimun wage and UBI approach so even workers in lower paid sectors such as hospitality get artificially high salaries much of which is pumped back into the economy to keep the wealth cycle.

How to keep people out whether they are trying to cross your border for UBI or even just a better paying job than a similar job they are already doing in their own country? Apart from border control (which results in visa overstay) then the only way is to hope that living standards increase sufficiently in the other countries so that they want to stay at home. This is why the "rich" countries apart from USA agree to shoulder the burden of GHG reduction in the early years to get the process moving even though some developing countries are continuing with the construction of CFPP.

 

[Belz...]

Let's take a country like Dubai

City.

 

[Zambo]

City.

I was thinking about the whole Emirate of Dubai not just the city, but yes I am wrong UAE is the country.

 

[Solitaire]

Buffering this amount of electricity to make it anything like reliable
and continuous is going to get expensive fast if we use batteries.

Cut the cost in half by using a Flywheel Energy Storage.

But if I told you I was going to get rid of my nagging wife,
would you assume that I was going to convert her to nag-free?

I assume logically that by doing everything she complains
about she will eventually reach as state of quiet happiness.

Canceling debts sounds great for countries, but what about the lenders?

They get jobs and work for a living.
If they cannot you pay you back, it’s not a loan, it's charity.

Again, there is no left-wing in USAian politics.
You have a choice between a centre-right party and an extreme-right party.

Yes. I looked at the Green Party and didn’t notice anything really leftist.
Maybe the foreign policy, but no real surprises there either.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Universal Basic Income - if you want that you damn well better build one helluva wall because everyone in the world will want to come here.

Other countries have it, and haven't been overwhelmed by 'everyone in the World' going there.

What successful financial model will this oncoming socialist state base itself upon, because I don't see one.

A mixed economy, just like every other successful 'socialist state'.

Suppose there really does come a day where automation takes a significant number of jobs away. What are the people with no jobs going to do?

A very good question! Hope someone has the answer, because it's coming whether you like it or not.

Try and make money in other ways?

It's time we stopping thinking that life was only about 'making money'.

Have some fun? People (until the latest generation) are not wired to sit around and do nothing.

Are you suggesting that if people didn't have to work in mind-numbing jobs that they hated, they wouldn't find useful things to do? And even if they just had fun, what would be the harm in that?

[ETA: kill each other!]

Only in America would someone think that 'kill each other!' is the preferred entertainment of bored rich people.

Having fun costs money most of the time. But there aren't enough fun venues to handle this huge new crowd of non-workers. We'll need more fun venues which equals more jobs (assumes people will still go outside at all). Maybe restaurants, theaters, casinos. Even if most of these jobs are also automated someone still has to build, own and maintain the business.

You still don't get it. Yes, there will always be a need for people, but not at anywhere near the same scale - which is why we need to decouple income from work. And most of the people who do build, own and maintain the businesses will do it because they like doing it, not because they would starve otherwise.

It may not be profitable or practical to automate many things, even if it's possible. I still prefer talking to a cashier at the store.

Do you also still prefer chatting to the clerk when you collect your mail from the Post Office? Or do you use email like everyone else?

The times they are a changing, and if you can't keep up...

Maybe we will have more small business owners. Business owners who work and make money and don't require the basic income.

That would be nice, but economy of scale says it won't happen. What is happening is people running 'boutique' businesses for fun rather than profit. A guaranteed income would increase that trend.

We've been automating industry for a very long time and we still have plenty of jobs.

No, we just have plenty of ******** jobs. Because our economic structure demands it.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation's work is an excellent example of how the solutions to the world's problems require thinking that goes far beyond binary arguments/oppositions

Solutions that go beyond binary arguments? That's the kind of nuanced intellectualism I would expect from a liberal. We conservatives don't do that - it's knee jerk reactions and "Clear, Simple, and Wrong" or nothing for us!

 

[kellyb]

Other countries have it, and haven't been overwhelmed by 'everyone in the World' going there.

No, I don't think any country on Earth has a UBI. Many have just tested it in small populations.
Alaska has one, but it's only about $40 a week/$2k a year. Not enough to make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Red Baron Farms, I recall debating Organic / GMOs in a thread with you and we don't want to derail this thread, even though it's interesting.

I know you take it very personally, being a US farmer, and I'm a farmer's daughter in a farming district in a country with increasingly-sustainable agriculture, and these differences colour our realities.

e.g our beef is all grass-grown apart from a only a percentage spending a few weeks prior to slaughter in feedlots.

I'm just curious if you farm cattle yourself.

It seems like you are arguing with me but we both agree sustainable agriculture is vital.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Solutions that go beyond binary arguments? That's the kind of nuanced intellectualism I would expect from a liberal. We conservatives don't do that - it's knee jerk reactions and "Clear, Simple, and Wrong" or nothing for us!

That graphic is bogus anyway. What good is nuanced thinking if it is done based on really poor understanding to begin with?

"It's not realistic to think people will stop using fertilizers"

Not only is it reasonable to think we could stop, it's kinda stupid to think we would even want to continue using them. What idiot neo-luddite WANTS to pay for expensive inputs that degrade his land when there are other options?

"running cargo ships"

Why would we even want to do that? It is literally the most efficient transportation means! What idiot even thinks we should in the first place?

"building offices"

Building offices isn't the problem. It's office buildings built without considering the transmission of heat from demented energy systems.

"Nor is it fair to ask developing countries to curtail their growth for the sake of everyone else"

Yet that's exactly what we do when the world bank forces countries to take standardized economic development "packages" that not only are often inappropriate technology, are also often competing directly with their own more efficient and beneficial systems.

"For example in many low to middle-income countries, cattle are an essential source of income and nutrients."

Yeah, including the USA! D'oh But surely they can be smart enough to understand it's not cattle that is the problem, but rather how we raise them! Or maybe not...

This is your nuanced thinking? really?

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Red Baron Farms, I recall debating Organic / GMOs in a thread with you and we don't want to derail this thread, even though it's interesting.

I know you take it very personally, being a US farmer, and I'm a farmer's daughter in a farming district in a country with increasingly-sustainable agriculture, and these differences colour our realities.

e.g our beef is all grass-grown apart from a only a percentage spending a few weeks prior to slaughter in feedlots.

I'm just curious if you farm cattle yourself.

It seems like you are arguing with me but we both agree sustainable agriculture is vital.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I have raised cattle in the past yes, but I do not raise them right now, no.

It doesn't change the dynamic, the economics, nor the biophysical though. And yes, farming in some areas is improving dramatically. In other areas, not so much. But in the majority of cases this is due to government interference and micromanaging by an increasingly odious government bureaucracy that is incapable of adjusting to the new science and technology fast enough.

 

[Toontown]

The Green New Deal hasn't a chance in hell of solving the problem because they are more interested in making the US a socialist state than solving AGW.

Coffee's brewing.

The U.S. is already a socialist state - in denial about being a socialist state. That's what's dividing us.

An even more socialist state in the future is inevitable, IMO, because smart machines will be doing most of the work, with greater speed and precision than humans can match. Unless the filthy rich can work out a feasible genocide plan that won't get them hung for crimes against humanity, of course.

Simultaneously, capitalism has inevitably reached the point where the wealth is being concentrated in progressively fewer hands. This is the point where capitalism is no longer capitalism, but a kind of feudalism, or something like it.

The net result of these changes is very likely, IMO, to be a full-blown socialist state, and probably a very rich one, if the machines and technology can do as well as I think they can.

But there is no need to panic. Except on the GW front. Panic there. Now.

But as bad as the Democrat plan may be, the denialism from the current Republican leadership is even worse. Not only will if fail to solve the problem, it could actually make it even worse than it is already.

That, too, is inevitable. Denialism has not been shown to often make problems go away. It's just sometimes better than knowing you're dead meat walking when there's nothing you can do about it.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Being a baseline socialist state is much cheaper than to be purely capitalist, and everyone in power knows it.
And technology keeps on making it cheaper.

 

[The Shrike]

"It's not realistic to think people will stop using fertilizers"

Not only is it reasonable to think we could stop, it's kinda stupid to think we would even want to continue using them. What idiot neo-luddite WANTS to pay for expensive inputs that degrade his land when there are other options?

Although I agree with you that we are way overusing fertilizers* there are plenty of idiot neo-Luddites out there blithely spending big $$$ to degrade their land that way.

*And don't get me started on the mental stranglehold that the pesticide industry has on American farmers. Still blows my mind to see people herbiciding native prairie in their bid to maintain forb-free pasture.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Although I agree with you that we are way overusing fertilizers* there are plenty of idiot neo-Luddites out there blithely spending big $$$ to degrade their land that way.

*And don't get me started on the mental stranglehold that the pesticide industry has on American farmers. Still blows my mind to see people herbiciding native prairie in their bid to maintain forb-free pasture.

Yeah there is that. sadly Don't you think education can help though?

 

[varwoche]

... "It's not realistic to think people will stop using fertilizers"

Not only is it reasonable to think we could stop, it's kinda stupid to think we would even want to continue using them. What idiot neo-luddite WANTS to pay for expensive inputs that degrade his land when there are other options?

I think this depends on the fertilizer. Not all ferts are the same. You're a fertilizist.

 

[Belz...]

They get jobs and work for a living.
If they cannot you pay you back, it’s not a loan, it's charity.

How does that answer my question? If you owe money to someone and just decide to forgive your own loan... that doesn't sound like an idea that'll see you get a loan in the future.