P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
I have that poster on ignore, but I'd bet money there's no acknowledgement that 'dowager' was misused...
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I have that poster on ignore, but I'd bet money there's no acknowledgement that 'dowager' was misused...
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Is the outcome of today's vote at all in doubt?
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Another deal. That will solve everything. Is this just going to end up as deals all the way down?
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
For anyone who doesn't mind offering their opinion, which of the following seem likely to occur? (yes or no for each)
1) Theresa May's current deal with the EU will be approved by Parlaiment.
2) A "hard Brexit" at the end of March
3) The deal will be renegotiated and the EU will offer further concessions to appease the Brexiteers, and that deal will be approved by Parlaiment.
4) Brexit will be postponed.
5) Brexit will be cancelled.
6) There will be a new referendum.
7) There will be new elections.
8) Other (please specify)
1) Theresa May's current deal with the EU will be approved by Parlaiment.
2) A "hard Brexit" at the end of March
3) The deal will be renegotiated and the EU will offer further concessions to appease the Brexiteers, and that deal will be approved by Parlaiment.
4) Brexit will be postponed.
5) Brexit will be cancelled.
6) There will be a new referendum.
7) There will be new elections.
8) Other (please specify)
Information Analyst
Penultimate Amazing
I see Raab has just been on BBC Breakfast, sowing lies to the effect of, "WTO terms will be fine, as long as the EU doesn't impose punitive tariffs on us..."
toto
Muse
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Judging by the last two and a half years: number 4 . Plus May will resign. She has to hasn't she?
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
I'm not sure she has to resign. She survived a leadership challenge.
Archie Gemmill Goal
Banned
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The problem with any alternative other than option 2 is that the require some amount of competence to actually agree and make them happen. Given events to date, a betting man would probably favour option 2 by default.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Expecting 4, fearing 2, hoping for 5 or failing that 6.
7 seems pointless when the two main parties both officially support Brexit meaning a majority either way will be claimed as an endorsement of that policy despite there being no way to differentiate peoples opinion on that one aspect in what is not a single issue vote. and anyway what difference if Thelma or Louise are at the wheel if we still drive off a cliff?
Archie Gemmill Goal
Banned
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Let's imagine that TM loses a confidence vote and an election is called. We now have about 2 months of campaigning before the election is held which is going to take us to early/mid March at best.
The most likely result of the election is a slender Tory win/hung parliament. There do not appear to be any polls that show Labour able to command a majority. How does any of this help?
We would need to go back to the EU and request a postponement of A50 but who is going to do that?
And where does it leave us? We would still have more or less the same issues unless there was a major program of deselection of candidates. Which isn't going to happen in a snap election.
The first action of any new PM may well be to have to unilaterally withdraw A50 to sort the mess out - which if there is a majority for in the HoC might as well be done now and save us the hassle of an election.
It really is an absolute ******** and it has been allowed to come to this by both Labour and Tory playing political games rather than addressing the issues at hand.
The most likely result of the election is a slender Tory win/hung parliament. There do not appear to be any polls that show Labour able to command a majority. How does any of this help?
We would need to go back to the EU and request a postponement of A50 but who is going to do that?
And where does it leave us? We would still have more or less the same issues unless there was a major program of deselection of candidates. Which isn't going to happen in a snap election.
The first action of any new PM may well be to have to unilaterally withdraw A50 to sort the mess out - which if there is a majority for in the HoC might as well be done now and save us the hassle of an election.
It really is an absolute ******** and it has been allowed to come to this by both Labour and Tory playing political games rather than addressing the issues at hand.
Ian Osborne
JREF Kid
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What Archie and PJ said. May's deal will crash and burn, and she'll likely burn with it. Brexit will have to be delayed, possibly for a new election which will solve nothing unless Labour get their thumbs out of their arses and support a second referendum. So by the end of the month, we'll be in exactly the same place as we were two and a half years ago. You can't stop progress, eh?
Of course it is, the doubt is by how much the government loses the vote!
Why does she have to resign? She is safe from an internal vote to force her down and unless a general election is called there are no other legal measures that can force her to step down.
Since the fixed term act losing a confidence vote no longer forces an election.
jeremyp
Philosopher
Huh?
The referendum was created by the Labour government and, because of an amendment by a Labour MP that 40% of the registered voters had to be in favour, the result was to reject devolution. The Labour government withdrew the devolution bill in accordance with the rules. The Conservative party had nothing to do with it.
Lothian
should be banned
She doesn't have to but Cameron resigned for ******* up on the EU so there is a precedent. Anyway this morning Dominic Rabb refused to rule out a desire to be the next Tory leader. With such an ideal candidate waiting in the wings it makes perfect sense for May to step aside now so when in the future this period of history is reviewed she will be but a passing footnote compared to the reams of pages detailing the incompetence of Rabb, who least we forget resigned in protest at the deal he negotiated.
Re: the previous talk of revoking Article 50, it is worth remembering that there's a few conditions attached to that, namely that it will have to be done by an act of Parliament and it will cancel the rest of the Brexit process. Good luck getting that through.
The Guardian:
213 in favour, 426 against. May loses by 213.
Sky News:
185 in favour, 423 against. May loses by 238.
The Press Association:
256 in favour, 383 against. May loses by 127.
Both The Telegraph and Buzzfeed lists 114 Tory MP's as voting against. ConservativeHome has 75 Tory MP's down as definantly voting against it, with another 26 listed as probably voting against it.
The Grauniad has done a bit of homework on that, and has helpfully listed their estimate along with that of other news organisations:
The Guardian:
213 in favour, 426 against. May loses by 213.
Sky News:
185 in favour, 423 against. May loses by 238.
The Press Association:
256 in favour, 383 against. May loses by 127.
Both The Telegraph and Buzzfeed lists 114 Tory MP's as voting against. ConservativeHome has 75 Tory MP's down as definantly voting against it, with another 26 listed as probably voting against it.
jeremyp
Philosopher
Yes it does. It's one of only two ways to force an early election, the other being a vote to have one with a two thirds majority.
Following a vote of no confidence, the government has two weeks to get enough votes together for a an explicit vote of confidence. If it fails in that, there must be a general election.
jeremyp
Philosopher
If it's a choice between that and a no deal Brexit, Parliament would certainly vote for cancellation. The only question is whether they will ever get the opportunity.
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
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So how will they negotiate the delay?
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