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Bitcoin - Part 2

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I think I’m gonna buy half a BTC, just in case something crazy happens in the next few weeks. I’ll sell if it hits sub 3000.


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Good luck. I don't thing anything crazy will happen. What was cool about BTC in 2017 was how it was growing all the time. The situation is very different now. You can hope for random bump, but you are doing just that.
 
The predicted pre-Christmas spike seems to be a bit of a fizzer...
Just waiting patiently.
Infinite supply regresses to zero demand.

Warren Buffet:
"It's like rat poison."
Charlie Munger:
"I like it a lot less than Warren."
 
To be fair, it did go from around $3,100 to $4,200 a 35% increase. It is now back down to $3,800, so an on-going bear market does look doubtful. Perhaps this was largely a dead cat bounce, or nostalgia about what happened last December deserving a sequel and an expectation of a repeat, but it is still a long way down from $20,000.


Norm
 
1. Nobody can decide if Bitcoin is an alternative currency, an alternative payment method, or an investment and no it can't work as all three (at least in the way it's trying to.)

2. Competing crypto-currencies keep popping up, siphoning off the "Get rich quick" people that make up more of Bitcoins user base then it's supporters want to admit.

3. It's decentralized nature makes points 1 and 2 impossible to effectively address.
 
Cryptos are not money. They can be exchanged for money but the only value comes from people's perceptions of how valuable these particular 0's and 1's are. They are buying and selling the output from computer programs. Much the same as gold and silver, except that these things have some market value for producing goods and actually exist in the real world. The value of cryptos is in the acceptance by traders that they are worth something, and on a day to day basis, the "value" is disturbingly variable against fiat.



Norm
 
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1. Nobody can decide if Bitcoin is an alternative currency, an alternative payment method, or an investment
Actually it has been decided, at least in South Korea.

Court Finds Bithumb Not Financially Responsible for Crypto Exchange Hack
The customer had claimed Bithumb had allegedly giving hackers the ability to steal his funds, totaling about 400 million Korean won (the equivalent of $355,000)... The hacker was able to gain access to Park’s crypto account for just a few hours, but that amount of time was enough to use of all Park’s cash holdings to purchase Ethereum and then transfer the tokens to separate wallets, owned by the intruder. At the end of the hack, Park’s account was left with Ethereum worth just 121 won (11 cents).

...the court sided with the exchange and cleared it of any charges relating to the theft, agreeing with its argument that it is indeed not a financial company.

The judge also ruled that Bithumb had carried out its fiduciary duty by sending him 10 SMS messages notifying him of the transactions that had taken place on his account. He also said that since cryptocurrency is “majorly used as a speculative means, it can’t be regarded as an electronic means of payment.”
 
1. Nobody can decide if Bitcoin is an alternative currency, an alternative payment method, or an investment and no it can't work as all three (at least in the way it's trying to.)

2. Competing crypto-currencies keep popping up, siphoning off the "Get rich quick" people that make up more of Bitcoins user base then it's supporters want to admit.

3. It's decentralized nature makes points 1 and 2 impossible to effectively address.

Counter point: BIIIIIITCONNNNNECT!
 
Much the same as gold and silver, except that these things have some market value for producing goods and actually exist in the real world.
Actually it's worse - Bitcoin actually has negative economic value, due to the massive amount of electricity used to produce it. But a significant proportion of that electricity came from cheap renewable sources, so why is it still a net loss?

Opportunity Cost

That electricity is now not available for more productive uses, especially reducing Global Warming. Every kWh sunk into Bitcoin just creates more delay in getting off fossil fuels, and the cost of that delay will dwarf any illusory financial gains many times over. In fact it's already costing billions of dollars in environmental damage, and will get much worse before it gets better (if ever).

The truth is, anybody who 'invests' in Bitcoin is indirectly guilty of vandalizing the planet.
 
Actually it's worse - Bitcoin actually has negative economic value, due to the massive amount of electricity used to produce it.
Why single out bitcoin? The entire economic system is geared towards the destruction of the planet. It can function only as long as there is continuous "growth" (increasing consumption).

The fact that so many are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoins gives lie to your claim that bitcoin has a "negative economic value" (not that this is a good thing).
 
Why single out bitcoin? The entire economic system is geared towards the destruction of the planet. It can function only as long as there is continuous "growth" (increasing consumption).

The fact that so many are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoins gives lie to your claim that bitcoin has a "negative economic value" (not that this is a good thing).
In advanced economies Cryptos remain a solution looking for a problem, in lagging economies there are reasons proposed for their existence. Since they are taking out the ecology it makes sense to fix the lagging economies as a priority, rather than supplying them with an industrial grade cock up to briefly keep the crooks and good guys trading with each other.

Get rid of cryptos right now. No dammit, yesterday.
 
In advanced economies Cryptos remain a solution looking for a problem, in lagging economies there are reasons proposed for their existence. Since they are taking out the ecology it makes sense to fix the lagging economies as a priority, rather than supplying them with an industrial grade cock up to briefly keep the crooks and good guys trading with each other.

Get rid of cryptos right now. No dammit, yesterday.
And that is relevant to what you quoted - how?
 
Why single out bitcoin? The entire economic system is geared towards the destruction of the planet. It can function only as long as there is continuous "growth" (increasing consumption).
Consumption isn't necessarily bad - it depends on what is being consumed and what effect it has. The Earth is bathed in 173,000 Terawatts of sunlight that mostly just heats the place up. We could tap into a tiny portion of that to meet all our energy needs and more, but instead we prefer to dig up fossil fuels and burn them. One consumption is far more harmful than the other.

Apart from shortsighted greed there is no reason we can't have sustainable 'growth' (ie. constantly increasing wealth) without destroying the planet. It's just a matter of defining what 'wealth' is.

The fact that so many are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoins gives lie to your claim that bitcoin has a "negative economic value" (not that this is a good thing).
Nonsense. Many people are willing to divert resources into other destructive activities such as wars and drug addiction too, yet nobody argues that they don't have a negative economic value.
 
Why single out bitcoin? The entire economic system is geared towards the destruction of the planet.

I don't agree with that.

It can function only as long as there is continuous "growth" (increasing consumption).

Or that.

The fact that so many are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoins gives lie to your claim that bitcoin has a "negative economic value" (not that this is a good thing).

Or that.

People are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoin because they think they can make money from it. That's not quite the same as bitcoin having economic value in and of itself.
 
I don't agree with that.



Or that.



Or that.
So prove me wrong.

People are willing to divert resources into the production of bitcoin because they think they can make money from it. That's not quite the same as bitcoin having economic value in and of itself.
There is no such thing as "having economic value" - only return on investment.
 
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The Earth is bathed in 173,000 Terawatts of sunlight that mostly just heats the place up. We could tap into a tiny portion of that to meet all our energy needs and more, but instead we prefer to dig up fossil fuels and burn them.
That doesn't explain why you singled out bitcoin out of all of the wasteful ways of consuming energy.
 
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