A Skeptic Eats His Own Words???

[tommyz]

A funny thing happened to me at work earlier today...

It all began last week, either Thursday or Friday morning, when I came in and told my adjacent coworkers (in a very friendly, conversational albeit skeptical tone of voice): "I'm not the one to believe in this psychic stuff, but last night I had a really weird dream that our power went out and our systems suddenly shut off. The boss finally came out of his office and tells everyone to go home WITH a full day's pay. Wouldn't it be nice if that actually DID happen?" I teasingly smirked, knowing full well that this was nothing more than wishful thinking on my part.

Today, Tuesday, November 1st, at around 3pm, one of my co-workers was telling everyone about a psychic party that she's holding this weekend and asked me if I wanted to go. Naturally, I declined, and when they asked why I proudly told them the practical, logical and common sense reasons as to why I prefer NOT to see psychics. It's not a matter of "believing" or "not believing" in them; it all boils down to the simple fact of CONSISTENTLY proving the validity of their claims which, based on my experience, they seem to do, at very best, a tenuous and inconsistent job of, or, at worst, a downright lousy job. I personally believe that we all have these "premonitions" or even the rare occassional "psychic vision" of things to come, but most of the time, these are nothing more than just your average, everyday, common sense reactions based upon your overall coginitive awareness of the situations and circumstances around you (say, for example, having that "gut" feeling that you're going to get that dream job because of the simple fact that you had conducted the interview process in a most outstanding and professional manner, or even knowing the quickest way to get from point A to point B based on your knowledge of city streets, highways, backroads, etc, in conjuction with your general observations of traffic flow, where road construction is, etc.)

Sometimes, in some magical, mysterious and serendipitous ways, our "instincts," or "gut feelings" they can and will be correct.

Like it was for me today...

With regard to that dream I had? Well, to a certain extent, that actually DID come to pass today! From one skeptic to another, I can certainly understand just how incredulous this sounds, so I don't expect anyone to buy this (I personally wouldn't), but please here me out. I'm going to state the circumstances of this event in as clearly a rational, level-head, unbiased and objective manner that I can. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind on the matter; my only intent is for you to thoroughly EXERCISE it:

So anyway, did our systems shut down? Yes. Were we sent home? No. Why? Three reasons: (1). Our power come right back on.
(2). It was late in the day [about 4:45pm] and it was almost time to go home anyway, and (3). Our boss would have FOUND some kind of work to do for us to keep us at our desks until our scheduled times anyway (even in the dark!).

What was most bizarre and (I want to emphasize here) COINCIDENTAL was how I had stated the above facts with regard to my "prophetic" dream which, up until that time, 3pm, never came to pass. This solid piece of evidence cleary supported my skeptical claim of being inconsistent in one's "psychic" thoughts and premonitions, and just how much I would've made a complete blithering idiot of myself had I actually taken this dream and proclaimed it to everyone as "fact." But as soon as the power and our computer systems had gone down...BAM! People got "freaked" out, including myself, I must honestly admit ---thus making me look like somewhat of a fool for attempting to "debunk" my co-worker's psychic beliefs!

Was this just a "random coincidence"? Or evidence of a truly "genuine" psychic phenomena? I personally lean towards the former, and here's why:

Just because we are right from time to time with regard to these inner "gut" feelings and personal instincts, does NOT necessarily makes us "psychic" in the TRUE sense of the word. To me, the real proof of psychic ability lies in CONSISTENCY, more importantly, how consistently CORRECT the psychic is. Would a mechanic still be called a mechanic if he only fixed half of your car's problems? Would a doctor still be called a doctor if he/she only treated and cured only half of your medical problems? More importantly, would you still be able to keep your job if you did only HALF of your work? With the possible exception of metereologists, most of these people would ALL eventually be out of work and be stripped of their professional titles, yet phychics seem to have the ONLY profession in the world where they can be consistently wrong and STILL keep their jobs. Go figure....

One thing I had thought of on my way home is to ask my coworker tommorow morning about the occurances of such power and system outages like the one we just had today. If they happen more frequently than not, I would rationally surmise that this were nothing more but a random coincidence. If this were the very FIRST time such an event took place? Well....now that's a little bit of a different story! I guess I'll find out tommorow morning

Either way you want to look at it, while I do have these "prophetic" thoughts and feelings from time to time, most of them can and will be incorrect. So clearly, that does NOT make me psychic. Prove me wrong...

Your thoughts? Feedback?

 

[Floyt]

[devil's advocate]
Of course, just because it was in all probability a coincidence, that does not mean that it must have been one. Most people who believe in premonitions and are not actively engaged in fleecing suckers with that notion would probably tell you that they are rare occurrences that do not crop up "consistently".[/]

There's just no certainty this side of the grave...
Your money, on the other hand, naturally ought to be on the Random option. The percentage-wary man might not be king in the land of the Wishful Thinkers, but he gets to be a great wet towel at parties!

 

[PatKelley]

Memory, dream, and thought are all really a muddied mess. The only thing separating a current observation from a past memory is a little trip of an internal switch, which gets flipped the wrong way in deja-vu. An immediate observation of events when replayed as a sequence internally gets tagged as a past memory...borne out by the observation that people can't ever seem to pinpoint the time they actually thought of the original incident, or had recorded it.

A second category is the rather realistic situational dreams some folks have, and the idea that some dreams can feel quite realistic. Dreaming of a power outage? Heck, those happen all the time in real-life. I would have been more impressed had the power outage occurred immediately after you related your tale to your co-workers. This is really a good example of confirmation bias... one could take this as a "hit" - but it's not really. It happened a while after the declaration, power outages are not improbable phenomena, and the details are significantly different.

Confirmation bias arises from our own attempts to create sequences and derive consequences, our ability to draw conclusions. Our own psychology pre-disposes us to try and figure things out, and try and draw relationships.

There was a really great experiment done once along the lines of Pavlov and Skinner... a group of pigeons, segregated from one-another, were set up in cages where a food pellet would drop approximately once every minute, or ten minutes or so. This ran for a while, and when the researchers observed the pigeons, each one was doing something repetative but different. The pigeons had erroneously concluded that some action they had performed had resulted in the food pellet dropping, and confirmation bias led them to continue to assume that behavior "A" causes food pellet drops. But for each one it was different: one flapped one wing, one preened, one bobbed, and so on.

Your sanity is safe.

 

[Mercutio]

There was a really great experiment done once along the lines of Pavlov and Skinner... a group of pigeons, segregated from one-another, were set up in cages where a food pellet would drop approximately once every minute, or ten minutes or so. This ran for a while, and when the researchers observed the pigeons, each one was doing something repetative but different. The pigeons had erroneously concluded that some action they had performed had resulted in the food pellet dropping, and confirmation bias led them to continue to assume that behavior "A" causes food pellet drops. But for each one it was different: one flapped one wing, one preened, one bobbed, and so on.

"Superstition in the Pigeon" Skinner, 1948. http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Skinner/Pigeon/

 

[PatKelley]

"Superstition in the Pigeon" Skinner, 1948.

Thanks...my memory from behavioral ecology is not what it was...

 

[Starrman]

I agree with 'random coincidence'. Billions of people have dreams every night. It would be downright paranormal if none of them came to pass.

 

[Luke T.]

There was a really great experiment done once along the lines of Pavlov and Skinner... a group of pigeons, segregated from one-another, were set up in cages where a food pellet would drop approximately once every minute, or ten minutes or so. This ran for a while, and when the researchers observed the pigeons, each one was doing something repetative but different. The pigeons had erroneously concluded that some action they had performed had resulted in the food pellet dropping, and confirmation bias led them to continue to assume that behavior "A" causes food pellet drops. But for each one it was different: one flapped one wing, one preened, one bobbed, and so on.

You can see this demonstrated in our local aquarium. You are allowed to feed the seals there by purchasing little containers of fish. When the seals see someone holding one of these containers, they each begin their individual begging technique. One slaps his chest with a flipper real rapidly. Another barks and moans. Another uses his flipper to splash you, with amazing accuracy. Yet another does flips in the water. Pandemonium!

 

[tommyz]

One thing I had thought of on my way home is to ask my coworker tommorow morning about the occurances of such power and system outages like the one we just had today. If they happen more frequently than not, I would rationally surmise that this were nothing more but a random coincidence. If this were the very FIRST time such an event took place? Well....now that's a little bit of a different story! I guess I'll find out tommorow morning
QUOTE]

In case anyone was wondering, I had only began working for my current employer in June of 2005, and have never experienced a sudden and unexplained power outage such as the one experienced yesterday.

Anyways, so I asked several coworkers about the frequency of such occurances. They all told me (one had been working there for 15 years) that ONLY once in a while during an electrical storm, but never on a clear and sunny day like it was yesterday...

Boy, do we skeptics have something to talk about now!!!

Comments? Suggestions? Theories? Could this indeed be a GENUINE paranormal phenomena? If so, I can only hope and pray that I have these on a more consistent AND accurate basis. Boy, I sure could use some of James Randi's million dollar prize!

 

[Beth]

Thanks for posting your experience. It is interesting. It would seem the probability of this occuring my chance alone is quite small. Can you think of any subliminal clues that the power would go out?

 

[Starrman]

Thanks for posting your experience. It is interesting. It would seem the probability of this occuring my chance alone is quite small. Can you think of any subliminal clues that the power would go out?

The chances something like this happening to him is small. The chances of it happening to someone is 100%, he just happened to be the guy that day.

There doesn't need to be any subliminal anything to explain this. Millions of people play the lottery, sometimes just one person wins. Does that make that one person psychic, did they need some kind of subliminal clues to pick the correct numbers?

Let us also not forget about the probably tens of thousands of unprophetic dreams he has had.

I don't get why we shoud find what happened here surprising at all.

 

[Ipecac]

So you predicted something that DIDN'T come true and you're exploring the idea that this may be evidence of psychic ability?

We've all had experience with power outages, whether at home or work, which makes them good fodder for predictions. As they aren't that uncommon anywhere, it's not too unlikely that you would experience one at work. This was just a coincidence.

 

[alfaniner]

I was thinking about posting something along the same lines myself. Friday afternoon I was walking to my car, thinking about nothing in particular. I happened to think of a couple I used to train with who had, I thought, really "futuristic" and uncommon names. One of those names was Gareth. I did not often think of those people -- it has been several years since I've seen them and thought of them perhaps twice in the last three years.

That night, Malcolm in the Middle was on, and Hal was terribly afraid of the serial killings that had occurred in their house. They found out the name of the killer was Gareth something. I just thought that was a weird coincidence. (I had not seen any previews for the show, nor read any advance blurbs.)

I'm not saying I'm "eating my words" -- but things like that have happened a few times. I say it is coincidence, but freaky just the same.

 

[TJ]

So you predicted something that DIDN'T come true and you're exploring the idea that this may be evidence of psychic ability?

I was thinking the same thing. This is a perfect example of how pyschics and astrologers get "hits." They make a prediction, something similar but likely unrelated or coincidental happens, and suddenly they're famous! Given that most of predictions are wrong, this can be an exciting time.

IMHO, you were considering not going to work or subconciously wanted the day off for whatever reason, and your mind logically considered an event that would indeed give you the day off.

Of course, as Ipecac pointed out, you did not get the day off, but the power failure (well interrupt we'll call it), which is an infrequent but not profound event, coincided with your dream.

I'm sorry, but I don't see anything even remotely paranormal here.

If psychics could predict the future, wouldn't they be the ones winning the Powerball, horse races, poker tournaments, etc? Oh, wait. They can't use their powers for self gain, right? But they can charge for readings and predictions...isn't that self gain? *beep, beep, beep* hypocrisy alert!

 

[rharbers]

I agree with 'random coincidence'. Billions of people have dreams every night. It would be downright paranormal if none of them came to pass.

Right! That would be the miracle!

 

[Bronze Dog]

I often end up thinking about a scene from a particular episode from a series, and lo and behold, that episode comes on later in the day. It's probably some subconscious knowledge of the episode order or simple confirmation bias.

 

[alfaniner]

I often end up thinking about a scene from a particular episode from a series, and lo and behold, that episode comes on later in the day. It's probably some subconscious knowledge of the episode order or simple confirmation bias.

Unless it's from Seinfeld -- that show is on 200 times a day...

 

[petre]

I was thinking the same thing. This is a perfect example of how pyschics and astrologers get "hits." They make a prediction, something similar but likely unrelated or coincidental happens, and suddenly they're famous! Given that most of predictions are wrong, this can be an exciting time.

Reminds me of an episode of John Edward I watched. In a room full of...I'm bad at estimates...but let's say 200 people he first claimed that he was getting a sense of "someone that was a musical conductor" (or composer, I'm not entirely sure which he claimed). After getting no response AT ALL from the audience (which probably collectively knew thousands of people) he rambled on until eventually found a woman whose dead husband...used to play an instrument(some kind of horn if I remember)...sometimes (not professionally). And this was one they actually AIRED? Makes me wonder how far off he is on average. I moved on to something else then.

Another time (which could have been the same episode if I switched back later, but probably not) he was doing a reading for two people (married?). Anyway, he rambled on with descriptions about a person he was sensing. After again hitting NOTHING relevant to ANYONE the person ever knew, living or dead, he surmised, "Oh, this must be a reading for someone else". I was thinking, huh? So he sits down with two people to do a reading for them, and some unknown ghost butts in? How could you ever be sure that the ghost that just claimed he was happy to be at rest then was actually your departed uncle? And this is just the footage they felt was noteworthy enough to broadcast.

 

[Francois Tremblay]

"Coincidence" is another one of those words what I think we use to stop thinking. "It's just a coincidence". Sure, there are plenty of things we cannot know, but let's be honest - what is a "coincidence" if not ignorance ?

 

[Ipecac]

"Coincidence" is another one of those words what I think we use to stop thinking. "It's just a coincidence". Sure, there are plenty of things we cannot know, but let's be honest - what is a "coincidence" if not ignorance ?

Oh please.

Coincidence: A sequence of events that although accidental seems to have been planned or arranged.

What part of this doesn't fit the situation?

 

[Francois Tremblay]

Oh please.

Coincidence: A sequence of events that although accidental seems to have been planned or arranged.

What part of this doesn't fit the situation?

You're just pushing it back to the word "accidental". "Accidental" still means you're giving up on trying to explain a situation. "It's just accidental". What does that mean ?