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Bitcoin - Part 2

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psionl0 said:
Are you arguing that bitcoin doesn't have the properties I have listed?
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It has those qualities, though I would take qualify the point "easy to transfer" only applies when there is no buying spree and fees and processing time are low. During the FOMO rushes, it is not easy to transfer as the fees are too steep for ordinary use and the processing times are long.

I think that stability is a very important factor that is required for a currency. An unstable currency is not one people feel comfortable leaving in their wallets, be it bitcoin or inflating fiat notes.

People don't like finding out last week's $20 is only worth $15 today. It's a fatal flaw.
 
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BTC was interesting as a currency. But it become famous by increasing price twenty fold during 2017. It was also quite profitable to mine at that time. If nothing, your top range GFX card paid for itself in 2 months.
Now it's just a shadow, actor who was famous. There can still be comeback, but today he's in rehab.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I think that stability is a very important factor that is required for a currency.
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But bitcoin is not a currency. It is a transformable digital asset and has more limited applications than a currency when it comes to transferring value.

In a few select applications, bitcoin is more effective than currencies at transferring value but it will never replace a currency.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
How much is Bitcoin actually being used to make purchases? Is most of it changing hands between speculators? Of those purchases, how much of it is small purchases? How many of these purchases are ordinary purchases and not blackmarket? I imagine not much.
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Its use as a currency is extremely low, merchants are wary because of the volatility. Most places that claim to accept it no longer do so, and large institutional adopters stopped taking it during the boom last December due to huge transfer fees.

Funnily enough, something that drops in value 12% in a day is usually frowned upon as means of payment.
 
4.7k right now. It's evident that Tether was propping up the economy, the rumour is that the SEC has hit Bitfinex with subpoenas, and they lost their bank. The economy was living on borrowed pegs.
 
psionl0 said:
But bitcoin is not a currency. It is a transformable digital asset and has more limited applications than a currency when it comes to transferring value.

In a few select applications, bitcoin is more effective than currencies at transferring value but it will never replace a currency.
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Are these reasons why bitcoin is so popular? I think not. Some niche applications doesn't account for the massive activity. It's primarily a vehicle for speculation.
 
Mycroft said:
It's not about investing or not, it's about your unsupportable statements guaranteeing profit if only you hold on long enough. Those claims are borderline fraudulent.

If you think you can make money with bitcoin, either by day-trading or buying and holding on, go for it. Just don't lie to people by telling them it's a guaranteed money-maker. It's not.
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Those "claims" about BTC making a profit for those who hold it long enough are actually "facts" backed up by history. There can be no reasonable argument to dispute these facts as they are part of the overall record, so I'm not sure where you're trying to go here.

If you are looking at a short term graph, you can make an argument that BTC is falling and therefore losing money at the moment, but if you return to the historical record you'll see that this has happened before and is not entirely unexpected. One thing is for certain, those who sell at a loss will lose and the record indicates those who have held historically have profited very well.

Chris B.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Are these reasons why bitcoin is so popular? I think not. Some niche applications doesn't account for the massive activity. It's primarily a vehicle for speculation.
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It is the reason why bitcoin became a vehicle for speculation. Had the transfer mechanism not worked properly then speculation wouldn't have started in the first place.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Those "claims" about BTC making a profit for those who hold it long enough are actually "facts" backed up by history. There can be no reasonable argument to dispute these facts as they are part of the overall record, so I'm not sure where you're trying to go here.

If you are looking at a short term graph, you can make an argument that BTC is falling and therefore losing money at the moment, but if you return to the historical record you'll see that this has happened before and is not entirely unexpected. One thing is for certain, those who sell at a loss will lose and the record indicates those who have held historically have profited very well.

Chris B.
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But the point is that at only 10 years of age, Bitcoin has no real history, and as a product/service it has no precedent. It (let's leave aside other cryptos) is unique, and it's just a baby so nobody can say for certain where it is going in the long term or even what "holding on for the long term" actually means. 10 Years, 20 Years - well, I'll be dead so I'll never know. That's fine if you have spare money that you can just set and forget, but some people may have specific spending needs coming up, got caught up in the hype, and spent money on Bitcoin that they could not afford thinking that easy money was on the way short term (as it was, but oops, they got greedy and did not sell).



I can say with some certainty that people who bought in above $10K last year have no idea when they will see any money, despite one Bitcoin Bull, Tom Lee, saying as recently as two weeks ago that it would reach $25K before the end of the year (he has since reduced that to $15K, claimed just before the recent run.



A new crypto type e-currency that can actually be used to buy a cup of coffee, be quick and cheap to exchange, be transparent to users and become acceptable by Financial markets, Retailers and Joe Public may come along in the next few years and blow bitcoin out of the water. A product that can actually be used rather than just traded. Then Bitcoin becomes yesterday's news, like boo.com did.



Norm
 
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If I was a paper crypto billionaire I would be trying to realise 10 million right now, as the hoax currency cruises through the 4000 handle.
My guess is that Buffet and Munger will see zero before they draw their last breaths.

RAT POISON said Charlie Munger.
 
fromdownunder said:
A new crypto type e-currency that can actually be used to buy a cup of coffee, be quick and cheap to exchange, be transparent to users and become acceptable by Financial markets, Retailers and Joe Public may come along in the next few years and blow bitcoin out of the water. A product that can actually be used rather than just traded. Then Bitcoin becomes yesterday's news, like boo.com did.
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Stop being sensible! :mad:

ETA just as a counterpoint, bitcoin may continue to be traded by speculators while the new crypto performs the function that bitcoin is unable to do - execute many micro transactions in real time at minimum cost. After all, most other cryptos are priced in BTC (as well as USD etc) and there is no reason to expect that a "bitcoin standard" in the crypto world won't continue.
 
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On another note, let's spare a thought for Etherium traders. It was trading as high as $1,372 in January, but has jut hit the $130 mark. Now that's a way to lose money.



Norm
 
fromdownunder said:
On another note, let's spare a thought for Etherium traders. It was trading as high as $1,372 in January, but has jut hit the $130 mark. Now that's a way to lose money.
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10-11 months is both a short time and a long time in the crypto currency price stakes.

My XRP holdings have also taken a hit. From $2.70 in January to $0.40 today. Bitcoin is really the trend setter.
 
4.3k was breached in Coinbase earlier. The cat is out of the bag after Bloomberg reported that there is a wide criminal investigation on price manipulation centred on Bitfinex and Tether.

We could be testing 4k today! Rumour has it that miners are trying to cash out as some of them have been operating at a loss, the 6k range was just about profitable for those with access to cheap electricity.

In the end it is a matter of numbers, Bitcoin needs new money to come in to make mining profitable, and if volumes are low and no new investors are coming in, then the price has to drop. But the drop in price affects mining profits, so we're back to a downward spiral. Bag holders start to lose nerve and they also cash out. It looks like we may be in for a bumpy ride.
 
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