Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

Status
Not open for further replies.
Aber said:
UK vs EU



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-economy/euro-zone-gdp-growth-rate-confirmed-at-four-year-low-idUKKCN1NJ1DJ



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/september2018

And Germany:



https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/14/german-economy-shrinks-for-first-time-since-2015
Click to expand...

Cool. The article I read said the latest figures from the UK were for the 3 months to August.

The latest figure for September is also 0% apparently.

Which does make me wonder where the 0.6% number came from actually.

What's the value in cherry picking one quarter of a figure that is highly volatile though? It seems like the growth results from having nice weather in July. Have we taken back control of the weather via Brexit? Oh and it was also a factor of having a crappy start to the year.
 
Last edited:
ceptimus said:
UK economy currently growing three times faster than Eurozone. Another Project Fear prediction proven to be totally wrong. Only fools believe the predictions coming from sources with such a woeful record of prediction accuracy. Remainers need to learn the lesson that wishing something to be true doesn't make it true.
Click to expand...

ceptimus said:
I promise I won't post again till someone acknowledges that my growth facts were true and apologizes for the other posters lying about them. If people can't acknowledge plain facts then continuing with this thread is futile.
Click to expand...
I won't comment for other posters but a quick scan just shows people using different figures. Your figure is the growth from Q2 to Q3 this year. It is the equivalent of saying that Arsenal beat Wolves at the weekend, if you only look at goals scored in the last 5 minutes of the game.

The chart I pasted shows the growth over a longer period and another poster also referred to the relative performance since the vote.
If the UK economy had grown 3 times quicker since the vote you would have a point. As it is you don't and project fear, as you called it, was spot on. Despite billions of £ in quantitative easing to boost the economy we have since the vote, despite the odd fluctuation, seen our growth fall when compared to that in the EU.
 
Note that a primary contributor to the 0.6% (from ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp) was services which (to my current understanding is not included in UK/EU agreement) so problematic. I wonder how much was extra spend to facilitate movement of services from UK sites to EU sites. How much pent-up demand due to prior dips in demand due to market uncertainty.
You also want to look at
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/september2018

esp figure 4 which gives more context.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Cool. The article I read said the latest figures from the UK were for the 3 months to August.

The latest figure for September is also 0% apparently.

Which does make me wonder where the 0.6% number came from actually.

What's the value in cherry picking one quarter of a figure that is highly volatile though? It seems like the growth results from having nice weather in July. Have we taken back control of the weather via Brexit? Oh and it was also a factor of having a crappy start to the year.
Click to expand...

It's because the ONS has just started publishing monthly GDP stats as well as quarterly data. Eurostat don't do this so comparing Eurozone GDP to UK GDP is best done on a quarter to quarter basis. All the data can be found in today's Eurostat press release:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/b4fd131d-8938-4ef6-9cb5-9c2f73d2809d

You'll note on a year-on-year basis Eurozone GDP increased by 1.7% (the slowest rate since 2014) while UK GDP increase by 1.5% (an improvement on the previous quarter).

Incidentally the ONS monthly GDP data does show that UK GDP growth for Q3 2018 was been driven by what happened in July.
 
Mid said:
It's because the ONS has just started publishing monthly GDP stats as well as quarterly data. Eurostat don't do this so comparing Eurozone GDP to UK GDP is best done on a quarter to quarter basis. All the data can be found in today's Eurostat press release:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/b4fd131d-8938-4ef6-9cb5-9c2f73d2809d

You'll note on a year-on-year basis Eurozone GDP increased by 1.7% (the slowest rate since 2014) while UK GDP increase by 1.5% (an improvement on the previous quarter).

Incidentally the ONS monthly GDP data does show that UK GDP growth for Q3 2018 was been driven by what happened in July.
Click to expand...

Yeah what I don't quite understand is how you can grow 0.4% in July, 0% in August and 0% in September and get 0.6% growth in the quarter.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Yeah what I don't quite understand is how you can grow 0.4% in July, 0% in August and 0% in September and get 0.6% growth in the quarter.
Click to expand...

Well the ONS say it's all to do with the maths (it's certainly plausible/likely although I've not looked at the index in question to see if that's right):

In today’s headline figures, the three months of Quarter 3 (July, August and September) are being compared with the months of Quarter 2 (April, May and June). While the two most recent monthly growths were flat, a strong growth into July coupled with the lower level in the base period give a comparatively strong quarterly growth rate. This can be seen in Figure 2, where the levels for Quarter 3 are significantly higher than the levels for Quarter 2.
Click to expand...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gros...ained-strong-after-a-weaker-start-to-the-year
 
Mid said:
Well the ONS say it's all to do with the maths (it's certainly plausible/likely although I've not looked at the index in question to see if that's right):



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gros...ained-strong-after-a-weaker-start-to-the-year
Click to expand...

So when they publish the data they compare one month with the previous month but 1 quarter with the previous quarter? I suppose that could lead to those kind of numbers. Seems fairly meaningless though which is why I said previously it's pointless to quote one snapshot figure of a volatile piece of data as if it matters.

Still we now have the Brexit deal and as far as I can see we have agreed to pay £40bn to the EU in order to be tie to all of their rules and regulations for the foreseeable future while losing our seat at the table discussing what those should be.

Sounds like a remarkable achievement on behalf of team Brexit!
 
ceptimus said:
Another lie. If not a lie then at least proof that you didn't read my post carefully.
Click to expand...

"There is no proper border structure between the EU and neighbouring countries such as Brazil."

You only named Brazil. If you just wanted to talk about Suriname, you should have said so. Even then, your claim about Brazil above was shown to be false. Most of the French Guiana/Brazil border is the Oyapack river, with only one crossing point, which has border control infrastructure. What remains of that border, and the border with Suriname, is virtually impassable jungle, or other rivers through virtually impassable jungle.

Why you think there should be border controls in places were there are few people and even fewer roads is anybody's guess. For you to try to pretend that the position of French Guiana is even remotely comparable to the Irish border is simply facile.
 
Meanwhile the Daily Mash has a more accurate reflection of the situation than many of the frontbenchers on both sides of the house.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/feat...ition-overnight-by-theresa-may-20181113179347

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news...pport-at-least-25-million-jobs-20181105179059

BRITAIN’S post-Brexit economy will rely heavily on Spice Girls reunion tours, it has been confirmed.

The 1990s pop stars will tour for 50 weeks of the year, with a two week break in late June when the entire UK economy will be based on Wimbledon.
Click to expand...
 
Information Analyst said:
"There is no proper border structure between the EU and neighbouring countries such as Brazil."

You only named Brazil. If you just wanted to talk about Suriname, you should have said so. Even then, your claim about Brazil above was shown to be false. Most of the French Guiana/Brazil border is the Oyapack river, with only one crossing point, which has border control infrastructure. What remains of that border, and the border with Suriname, is virtually impassable jungle, or other rivers through virtually impassable jungle.
Click to expand...

Hey there is a ferry to Suriname.

Of course neither of these borders have anywhere near the trade of the irish border.
 
Information Analyst said:
"There is no proper border structure between the EU and neighbouring countries such as Brazil."

You only named Brazil. If you just wanted to talk about Suriname, you should have said so. Even then, your claim about Brazil above was shown to be false. Most of the French Guiana/Brazil border is the Oyapack river, with only one crossing point, which has border control infrastructure. What remains of that border, and the border with Suriname, is virtually impassable jungle, or other rivers through virtually impassable jungle.

Why you think there should be border controls in places were there are few people and even fewer roads is anybody's guess. For you to try to pretend that the position of French Guiana is even remotely comparable to the Irish border is simply facile.
Click to expand...


Maybe he thinks they should build a wall.
 
ponderingturtle said:
Hey there is a ferry to Suriname.

Of course neither of these borders have anywhere near the trade of the irish border.
Click to expand...

And 17m French folk didn't vote to take back control of the border there either. Did we really go through all that just so we decide to take back control of the door by leaving it open?
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
And 17m French folk didn't vote to take back control of the border there either. Did we really go through all that just so we decide to take back control of the door by leaving it open?
Click to expand...

Apparently the border with Ireland was not supposed to be one taken back even though it is the only land border.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom