Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

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Wudang said:
It's worth watching the video just to serious how earnest Raab is, as if this is an enormous revelation that nobody could have foreseen.
"The accident wasn't my fault as the tree jumped out in front of my car."
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Meanwhile Here's Lord Buckethead at the last General Election hustings



Although his language is somewhat intemperate* , he seems to have a better grasp of the essential issues than the Cabinet.


ETA: and possibly NSFW
 
Aber said:
Because we wouldn't insist to high tariffs on oranges to protect our domestic citrus industry? :D
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Sadly the superstition about high doses Vitamin C curing everything aren't true.

Pity we let the whole 'scurvy' cat out of the bag, otherwise we could have reclaimed our empire.
 
quadraginta said:
My, my. That isn't very pretty.

I'm sure ceptimus will be able to explain it all away, point by point, and reassure everyone that the cost of Brexit will be insignificant.
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Oh come on there is clear statements that there will be adequate food. As long as no one starves to death that is a total win as far as brexit is concerned.
 
quadraginta said:
My, my. That isn't very pretty.

I'm sure ceptimus will be able to explain it all away, point by point, and reassure everyone that the cost of Brexit will be insignificant.
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Or, perhaps, counter it with a list of significant advantages from Brexit. I'll be happy to start:

1. Blue passports (though we could have had them any time we wanted).

Next?

Dave
 
quadraginta said:
My, my. That isn't very pretty.

I'm sure ceptimus will be able to explain it all away, point by point, and reassure everyone that the cost of Brexit will be insignificant.
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They weren't proper British companies anyway, and with them gone there'll now be room for homegrown talent.
 
Is planning. Warned. Preparing. Might. Could. Chance that. ....

Project Fear continued. All their predictions so far wrong. Why believe the new ones?
 
ceptimus said:
Is planning. Warned. Preparing. Might. Could. Chance that. ....

Project Fear continued. All their predictions so far wrong. Why believe the new ones?
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Not true.

Also there was a in there that was not predictions but actual companies moving out in preparation for Brexit chaos.

ETA: Also this one

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1061802399856291840.html


Panasonic is moving its European HQ from the UK to Amsterdam (the legal aspects of the move were completed in October 2018, as the £200 million capitalised UK company was absorbed by Panasonic's Dutch entity). 3/40
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The UK Government is spending £92 million on a feasibility study to work out how it could build its own version of the Galileo GPS satellite network. Note that the money's purely for planning. It doesn't pay for any satellites, or space launches! 9/40
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A £500 million data centre contract was awarded by the UK Government without a competitive tender process, because time was too short & it is needed as part of "critical national infrastructure". It is due to come online 13 days before Brexit Day!! 10/40
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Marshall Wace, one of the biggest hedge funds in the UK, has obtained a license to run management companies in Ireland & plans to grow its Dublin presence as a protective measure against Brexit. (Its chairman and CEO donated £100,000 to Leave) 22/40
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Jaguar Land Rover has opened a new plant in Slovakia (expected capacity of 100,000 cars/year by 2020) and has begun shifting car production away from the UK, partly as a response to Brexit. 33/40
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A new work order for the "Galileo Control Segment" ground infrastructure monitoring the Galileo constellation of satellites was won by GMV Aerospace and Defence of Spain. Up until now, GCS had been provided by Airbus in Portsmouth. 38/40
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ceptimus said:
Is planning. Warned. Preparing. Might. Could. Chance that. ....

Project Fear continued. All their predictions so far wrong. Why believe the new ones?
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There’s a scene in Life of Brian where Judith screams at Reg, the leader of the Popular Front of Judea “It’s happening Reg, it’s really happening”. You’re Reg.

How long are you going to keep up the denial?
 
UK economy currently growing three times faster than Eurozone. Another Project Fear prediction proven to be totally wrong. Only fools believe the predictions coming from sources with such a woeful record of prediction accuracy. Remainers need to learn the lesson that wishing something to be true doesn't make it true.
 
ceptimus said:
UK economy currently growing three times faster than Eurozone.
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An unconvincing lie: the actual numbers are the same with both the UK and Eurozone growing at 0.4% in the second quarter of 2018. Growth in the EU and the Eurozone is higher in the previous 12 months than the UK. It’s projected to stay that way.
 
ceptimus said:
UK economy currently growing three times faster than Eurozone. Another Project Fear prediction proven to be totally wrong. Only fools believe the predictions coming from sources with such a woeful record of prediction accuracy. Remainers need to learn the lesson that wishing something to be true doesn't make it true.
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Happy to review your stats but in the meantime this is from the full fact website. It shows the brexit effect quite well albeit we are just seeing the threat of brexit not the consequences.

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Fake news. You can't even agree amongst yourselves. UK 3rd quarter GDP +0.6% EU +0.2%

Source: official figures.
 
ceptimus said:
UK economy currently growing three times faster than Eurozone. Another Project Fear prediction proven to be totally wrong. Only fools believe the predictions coming from sources with such a woeful record of prediction accuracy. Remainers need to learn the lesson that wishing something to be true doesn't make it true.
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I know everyone looks at one quarter's GDP figures and take them as gospel evidence for if the economy is about to boom or bust but beyond sudden large drops or increases the recent trends in the data are a far better guide (actually looking at a number of indicators beyond just GDP is a better guide and not just because of the ONS's habit of revising the GDP data for years after the event).

So let's look at the averages as a guide to what's been going on (and with the usual caveat about not having left the EU holding). Doing that shows average UK growth has slowed since the referendum.

So prior to the referendum from Q1 2013 to Q2 2018 (so excluding the negative growth in some quarters of 2012) UK average quarterly GDP growth was 0.6% (the highest quarter being Q3 2013 when GDP grew by 0.9%). Post referendum average GDP growth is 0.4% (the highest quarter being Q4 2017 at 0.7% growth). Even if we include 2012 in the data and look at growth from the end of the recession to the referendum we still have average quarterly growth of 0.5% (with the highest quarterly growth being in Q3 2012 at 1.2%). Of course prior to the recession and also austerity GDP was growing on average by 0.7% per quarter over the decade and a half or so from the 1990s recession (although that figure includes a boom hidden in the data).

Quarterly growth data is from here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pn2

The point being that the data doesn't support the claim that the Brexit process has not harmed the UK economy, all the data points to it having damaged it especially in the light of the strong global growth seen elsewhere. The thing most forecasters in "project fear" did get wrong was they assumed an immediate impact on the economy right after the referendum rather than the slow fading away of investment that we've actually seen.
 
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