2018 mid-term election

[acbytesla]

Blackburn is leading in the live NY Times poll by a whopping 17%. Sounds like Taylor Swift will be the one heartbroken on Election Day. Maybe she can turn it into a song.

No offense specifically to you. But I swear I've read dozens of posts lately by Republicans/Trump supporters in this forum about how the polls mean nothing since we are seeing a lot of reporting about a blue wave yet I see the same posters trotting out the polls/articles showing that their candidate is leading. I wouldn't call it hypocritical, but I would argue it's selective.

 

[Brainster]

No offense specifically to you. But I swear I've read dozens of posts lately by Republicans/Trump supporters in this forum about how the polls mean nothing since we are seeing a lot of reporting about a blue wave yet I see the same posters trotting out the polls/articles showing that their candidate is leading. I wouldn't call it hypocritical, but I would argue it's selective.

Look, both sides will say that there's only one poll that matters when they think they are behind. I don't mind saying that in the last 45 days or so I pretty much concluded that the Blue Wave was real. And in a sense I think it still is. I think the Democrats are probably going to take back the House. But I also think that the Kavanaugh thing is backfiring big time on the Democrats in the Senate.

Bredesen, the Democrat in the Tennessee race, is a popular two-term governor. But to give you an idea of how bad the polling must have been last week, he came out and said he would have voted in favor of Kavanaugh for the SC. It does not seem to have helped (in fact it might have cost him some supporters).

So that's one of the upsets the Democrats had hoped to pull off apparently gone a-glimmering. Meanwhile in North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp (who voted against Kavanaugh) is having to do similar things, like disavowing Hillary Clinton's remarks on how there is no way to bring back civility to politics without getting rid of the Republicans. But she is toast unless the blue wave is tidal in nature, and she's a lost seat for the Democrats, meaning they have to pick up 3 seats that are currently being held by Republicans while not losing any more than ND.

The race to succeed Jeff Flake in Arizona is also getting tighter. Kirsten Sinema had been leading pretty frequently in the polls, but Martha McSally is suddenly getting a boost, and this was before the local news reported that Sinema had promoted an event featuring convicted terrorist supporter Lynne Stewart. Gosh darn those old Yahoo Listservs!

U.S. Democratic Senate hopeful Kyrsten Sinema promoted events at Arizona State University featuring a lawyer convicted for aiding an Islamist terror organization and its leader.

Sinema, a co-founder of the activist group Local to Global Justice, invited people in a now-closed Yahoo group to attend two events with Lynn Stewart, both in 2003.

 

[quadraginta]

That exact exchange with my 88 year old mom this weekend.

Her: Is there something you can do about all these calls I get on my "home" phone? I'm on the do not call list! The only calls I get are from sales people and people with heavy accents I can't understand.

Me: Why do you still have a "home" phone? Does so-and-so, or so-and-so ever call you on that phone?

Her: Well no, they all call my cell or text.

Me: Seems like you could save some money by getting rid of your "home" phone.

Her: But what if its an emergency?

To keep it on topic she, will vote a straight R ticket in November.

See if her landline service supports NoMoRobo.

Then get her to activate it. It works pretty well. I only get a few unsolicited calls of that sort make it through in any given month.

 

[Brainster]

Beto O'Rourke raised over $38 million in the third quarter. And Democrats everywhere are going to rue all the funds spent on this race, as Cruz has begun to extend his lead. How bad is it? Politico actually published a piece begging the national media not to profile Beto anymore.

In some ways, the O’Rourke campaign is a replay of Wendy Davis’ failed 2014 run for the Texas governorship, another liberal-against-conservative contest in which the Democrat was buoyed by a flotilla of encouraging East Coast coverage. But today’s Quinnipiac University Poll put O’Rourke down 9 points against Cruz, with Cruz trending up. If the poll holds, Texas will not transmogrify into California this election cycle and the attempt to run a Brooklyn campaign against his Texas opponent will have failed again.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

This is the state that thought Obama was planning to invade them.

I was never holding my breath to begin with.

 

[Brainster]

Sinema's past is catching up to her. She was interviewed back in 2003 on a radio show with local Libertarian flake Ernie Hancock:

"By force?" Hancock asked. "By me, as an individual, if I want to go fight in the Taliban army, I go over there and I'm fighting for the Taliban. I'm saying that's a personal decision..."
"Fine," Sinema interjected, "I don't care if you want to do that, go ahead."

CNN also mentions Sinema co-hosting an Air America radio show with Jeff Farias, a local 9-11 Truth nutter, although they note that they can find no indication that they discussed his crazy theories while she was on the show. I searched the SLC archives and found several posts where we mentioned Farias, but none where Sinema's name came up.

She also apparently gave a speech at the Netroots Nation conference where she joked that Arizona was the meth lab of democracy. That's the kind of gag that might go over big with the Kos Kids, but could make her a harder sell in Phoenix.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

This is the state that thought Obama was planning to invade them.

I was never holding my breath to begin with.

The Plan is ready to go in case O'Rourke doesn't win.
Hillary just has to say the right word on TV and all the Sleeper-FEMA soldiers in Texas will activate.

 

[River]

Taylor Swift is breaking a lot of Nazi hearts coming out against Marsha Blackburn.

So much of the push towards voter registration is directed at blacks and other people of color, but we ain’t the problem. When we vote, the vast majority of us take a look at the ballot box and choose the candidates who are the most sane and the least evil. Even with the ****** choices we’re so often given, 90 percent of us still manage to choose the right ones.

Maybe we’re getting it all wrong. Maybe instead of trying to get more of us to vote, the push should be to get less of them to vote. Maybe on Election Day, we should erect targeted barricades at each and every crucible of whiteness, from Cracker Barrel to Lululemon, so they can’t escape until voting is over

Theroot keeping it classy on Swifts remarks. (much like other democrats)

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Theroot keeping it classy on Swifts remarks. (much like other democrats)

She is not a democrat.

 

[River]

She is not a democrat.

In her post Sunday, Swift vowed to vote for two Democratic candidates: former governor Phil Bredesen for the Senate and Rep. Jim Cooper for reelection.

First time I've seen Swift be vocal about politics. Voting democrat. She claims to vote by candidate. So do I. I bet you would not call me independent or anything but GOP based on this election cycle. (because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

 

[jimbob]

First time I've seen Swift be vocal about politics. Voting democrat. She claims to vote by candidate. So do I. I bet you would not call me independent or anything but GOP based on this election cycle. (because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

 

[River]

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

I agree both parties need work. Less religious zealots on GOP. However, with the current DNC agenda and supporters -- I'm out until it changes. (this is coming from someone that voted for Obama twice)

 

[Segnosaur]

(because I've sworn to never vote democrat again until they reform the party)

Now that wins a prize for irony.

The Democratic party has many issues - however they are dwarfed by the GOP.

Now to be fair, River never did say how he wan'ted the Democrats to reform.

He may say "I want them to reform by getting rid of all those pesky civil rights, and start hating gay people again, and throwing children in cages (if they're the wrong color)".

 

[JoeMorgue]

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

 

[Segnosaur]

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

While I agree with points 1-3, on point 4 I have to wonder:
- How are you defining 'significant' increase voter turnout?
- Are you comparing this midterm's voter turnout with the last major election in 2016 or with previous midterms (which on average have lower turnouts)?

I can see an increase in voter turnout compared to to 2014, although I don't think it will made a major difference in the results (with Republican gerrymandering and voter supression.)

 

[Trebuchet]

Okay if we can bring this back to the topic somewhat.

Serious prediction.

1. Democrats will win enough seats to grant them a slim majority in the House
2. Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
3. Republicans will not significantly lose any of their 2010-2016 gains in the Governorship or State Legislature level
4. We will not see a significant increase in voter turnout.

While I agree with points 1-3, on point 4 I have to wonder:
- How are you defining 'significant' increase voter turnout?
- Are you comparing this midterm's voter turnout with the last major election in 2016 or with previous midterms (which on average have lower turnouts)?

I can see an increase in voter turnout compared to to 2014, although I don't think it will made a major difference in the results (with Republican gerrymandering and voter supression.)

I'd expect a decrease in voter turnout, because it's not a Presidential election year. That MAY affect R's more than D's, because they don't have Trump to vote for. Or not. Possibly wishful thinking on my part.

ETA: Oops, didn't see Segnosaur specified 2014. That was a somewhat dull year, so I can see an increase over that.

 

[Brainster]

How bad are things looking for the Democrats in the Senate? They're starting to pour money into TrueBlue New Jersey, to prop up that crook, Bob Menendez.

Keep in mind that Menendez, having survived a hung jury in his corruption case, is still in front pretty handily--7.2 points ahead in the RCP average of polling. Meanwhile, a bunch of Democrats are in very tight races that the party basically needs to sweep in order to have a chance of taking back the upper house. They are spending $3 million, which is not a big ad buy in the New Jersey TV markets as the Garden State is basically the expensive New York and Philadelphia markets. Just think how much that same amount could buy in Montana, where Jon Tester is ahead by only 3 points, or Nevada, where incumbent Republican Dean Heller is only up by 1.7 points.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

McConnell did well with Kavanaugh for shoring up support for Republicans in the Senate, but I'm confused by his recent statements:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called on Congress to rein in major government programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security in order to slow America's spiraling national debt on Tuesday, ignoring the fact the tax plan he recently passed has further grown that number.

"It's very disturbing, and it's driven by the three big entitlement programs that are very popular: Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid. That's 70 percent of what we spend every year," he said on Bloomberg News Tuesday when asked about the national debt. "There's been a bipartisan reluctance to tackle entitlement changes because of the popularity of those programs. Hopefully at some point here we'll get serious about this. We haven't been yet."

McConnell's comments give Democrats more fodder for an argument that they've been making in campaigns across the map: That the GOP will ultimately try to pay for its tax cuts by slashing social programs.

Linky.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Wednesday that Republicans may try again to repeal the Affordable Care Act after the November midterm elections, reviving an issue that polls show has swung sharply in the Democrats’ favor.

Linky.

I mean, we all know these are the actual Republican goals, but they aren't popular messages to give before the midterms.

And Trump is busy saying that Democrats want to cut Medicare...

 

[Armitage72]

And Trump is busy saying that Democrats want to cut Medicare...

The flyers I've been getting in the mail have have a Republican claiming that by supporting Single Payer, his opponent wants to "end Medicare as we know it." Technically, making it available to everyone would sort of fit that description.

 

[Trebuchet]

Republican ads for the Washington 8th District have been claiming that the Democrat supports Medicare for All and it would cause income taxes to double. And much other hyperbole.