Cont: The Trump Presidency X: 10-10 'til we do it again

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newyorkguy said:
Of course, Fox News, Trump and the Republican Party are going to campaign hard to get Trump reelected, and they're going to say he's doing a great job. But the reality is, he's going to be a pretty easy target to run against. It will be easy to put him on the defensive. From a candidate with no record who could (and did) promise anything, he'll be an incumbent who will have to defend his record.

Polling now shows only 28%-32% of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump in 2020, his approval ratings have been consistently in the 38%-42% range, a candidate who lost the popular vote by almost 3.0 million votes. I'm glad I'm not one of his staffers because if I was, I'd be very worried that I'll be out of work come January 2021.
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Which outright lie that will rally his base do you think Trump will not be capable of telling during the 2020 campaign? The 2020 campaign is going to make it's own history. Admittedly, Trump got in on the narrowest of margins (the margins in those last few states he needed to get the electoral majority - Michigan, PA, etc.), so repeating that is less likely than not, to some extent.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
trump Tweets

"You don’t hand matches to an arsonist, and you don’t give power to an angry left-wing mob. Democrats have become too EXTREME and TOO DANGEROUS to govern. Republicans believe in the rule of law - not the rule of the mob. VOTE REPUBLICAN!"

"Beautiful evening in Topeka, Kansas. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! #MAGA"
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Clearly that "Republican" doesn't believe in the rule of tax law.
 
Trump won't need to rally his base in 2020. They'll be there no matter what. But his base appears to be only about 30% of the electorate. That's not enough to win reelection and what he'll need to do is hang on to the swing voters who helped him win in 2016. He appears to already be losing many of them. In interviews they have made it clear. They voted for him on the basis they thought he was committed to improving the lives of working class/middle class people. But he's demonstrated that he is not.

As a prominent New York social columnist once wrote, when Donnie burst on the scene almost forty years ago, he was the darling of the Big Apple. But not for long. Liz Smith of the New York Daily News wrote, Trump's problem is, when people get to know him, most people don't like him. ;)
 
Captain_Swoop said:
"You don’t hand matches to an arsonist, and you don’t give power to an angry left-wing mob. Democrats have become too EXTREME and TOO DANGEROUS to govern. Republicans believe in the rule of law - not the rule of the mob. VOTE REPUBLICAN!"
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Seems like an easier solution would be to make being a Democrat illegal.
 
newyorkguy said:
Trump won't need to rally his base in 2020. They'll be there no matter what. But his base appears to be only about 30% of the electorate. That's not enough to win reelection and what he'll need to do is hang on to the swing voters who helped him win in 2016. He appears to already be losing many of them. In interviews they have made it clear. They voted for him on the basis they thought he was committed to improving the lives of working class/middle class people. But he's demonstrated that he is not.



As a prominent New York social columnist once wrote, when Donnie burst on the scene almost forty years ago, he was the darling of the Big Apple. But not for long. Liz Smith of the New York Daily News wrote, Trump's problem is, when people get to know him, most people don't like him. ;)
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I think this is spot on and if there is any down turn in the economy before 2020 he is toast. Frankly, most other presidents with this economy would have super high approval ratings. He can't break 40 with a humming economy.


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seayakin said:
I think this is spot on and if there is any down turn in the economy before 2020 he is toast. Frankly, most other presidents with this economy would have super high approval ratings. He can't break 40 with a humming economy.


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I think you're looking at the wrong economic indicators. The economy is doing great if you look at GDP and the Dow. What's not happening fast enough, certainly not fast enough to keep up with the cost of living is wage growth. The economy sucks if you look at wages.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...usted-for-inflation-new-data-finds-2018-07-17
 
Craig4 said:
I think you're looking at the wrong economic indicators. The economy is doing great if you look at GDP and the Dow. What's not happening fast enough, certainly not fast enough to keep up with the cost of living is wage growth. The economy sucks if you look at wages.





https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...usted-for-inflation-new-data-finds-2018-07-17
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I agree but I think many voters will hear the economy is good and not pay attention to those details. Of course, many are feeling the pain you talk about and continue to support Trump. I do believe this will slowly chip away Trumps support if it doesn't improve.


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seayakin said:
I agree but I think many voters will hear the economy is good and not pay attention to those details. Of course, many are feeling the pain you talk about and continue to support Trump. I do believe this will slowly chip away Trumps support if it doesn't improve.


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Some might, but a lot of people could easily be upset that while they can get a job, they need 2 or 3 jobs to keep a roof over their head and still not be able to pay for the medicine they need.
 
[Comment removed as unnecessary. Not that any of my posts are necessary.]
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
If Democratic Protesters want legitimacy, they need to bring Tiki-torches
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Sadly, the Trumpkins have demonstrated that they throw their morals and decency away only for Trump. If someone else dares do any of the things they routinely handwave when it comes from Trump, they are up in arms.

Up in arms with a stright face, I might add. They seem to know they are throwing rocks in houses of glass and they just don't care :/ .
 
Many of the swing voters are people of moderate means (and views for the most part), upset and resentful that the big shots in Washington only pay them lip service, while failing to do the tangible things that could make their lives easier. In 2016 Hillary Clinton bore that brunt of their anger. In 2020 it could well be Trump the incumbent who gets it. I'm thinking of voters who have no particular ideological allegiance to Trump. People I know who voted for Trump and supported The Wall but without having any real hostility towards Hispanics (some are Hispanic!). They believed that barring illegal, low-wage immigrants would help boost employment and wages. Keeping America white and Anglo was not on their radar.

Now a lot of them suspect Trump never really planned on building The Wall or, at best, knew it would be politically impossible to finance. Some of the people I know who voted for Trump in 2016 have already turned on him.
 
seayakin said:
I agree but I think many voters will hear the economy is good and not pay attention to those details. Of course, many are feeling the pain you talk about and continue to support Trump. I do believe this will slowly chip away Trumps support if it doesn't improve.


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Unemployment is also way down. People coming out of a recession are probably more interested in having a steady paycheck, than whether that paycheck is growing a lot every year. Especially with low inflation.

GDP, inflation, employment... It's probably going to be tough to sell a Dem ticket in the midterms if your pitch is, "... yes, but you're not considering wage stagnation. Because you're stupid."
 
theprestige said:
Unemployment is also way down. People coming out of a recession are probably more interested in having a steady paycheck, than whether that paycheck is growing a lot every year. Especially with low inflation.

GDP, inflation, employment... It's probably going to be tough to sell a Dem ticket in the midterms if your pitch is, "... yes, but you're not considering wage stagnation. Because you're stupid."
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Unemployment has been way down for a while now.
 
theprestige said:
Are you just agreeing with me, or do you intend us to infer something else beyond that?
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Trump's economy is a straight continuation of the Obama economy when it comes to employment. In fact, there are places that had to close because of the Trump tariffs.
The only things Trump has boosted is the Stock market, which only few people still have major positions on.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Trump's economy is a straight continuation of the Obama economy when it comes to employment. In fact, there are places that had to close because of the Trump tariffs.
The only things Trump has boosted is the Stock market, which only few people still have major positions on.
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What does this have to do with how the voters' sense of the economy might influence their vote in the mid terms?
 
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