New SCOTUS Judge II: The Wrath of Kavanaugh

[theprestige]

It seems more people found Ford credible than didnt.

I have an opinion about this: Seems isn't is.

 

[Ziggurat]

It seems more people found Ford credible than didnt.

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/409167-kavanaugh-polling-fbi-on-the-hot-seat
"In terms of the overall needle, after the testimony was heard, 37 percent say confirm the nomination, 44 percent say reject it, and 18 percent remain undecided, with Democrats going one way and Republicans the other. But once the voters are told that the named witnesses deny any knowledge of the allegation, this shifts to 57 percent who favor confirmation — and that goes up to 60 percent, if the FBI agrees there is no corroboration."

The fact that much of the public is ignorant of central facts concerning her credibility doesn't actually make her credible.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I have an opinion about this: Seems isn't is.

Revealed preferences. The level of conservative argument devoted to arguments that kavanaughs behavior to Ford is acceptable reveals a non zero population of conservatives that accepted it.

Which is consistent with polling

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/6540...ord-than-kavanaugh-a-cultural-shift-from-1991

"In choosing who is telling the truth, 45 percent said Ford is, up from 32 percent ahead of her Sept. 27 testimony. A third (33 percent) said Kavanaugh is the one telling the truth, up slightly from 26 percent before he testified but not as much of a rise as for Ford.

The daylong hearing appears to have been influential in helping people decide who was telling the truth. Before the hearing, 42 percent said they were unsure whom to believe. Now, just 22 percent are unsure."

 

[BobTheCoward]

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/409167-kavanaugh-polling-fbi-on-the-hot-seat
"In terms of the overall needle, after the testimony was heard, 37 percent say confirm the nomination, 44 percent say reject it, and 18 percent remain undecided, with Democrats going one way and Republicans the other. But once the voters are told that the named witnesses deny any knowledge of the allegation, this shifts to 57 percent who favor confirmation — and that goes up to 60 percent, if the FBI agrees there is no corroboration."

The fact that much of the public is ignorant of central facts concerning her credibility doesn't actually make her credible.

That says very little about credibility. Credibility does not default to having to cross the "reasonable doubt" threshold stated by various senators.

ETA: I think the fact that people are ignorant is credible. Credible by definition is able to be believed or convincing. A convincing argument that works on ignorant people is a credible argument.

 

[theprestige]

That says very little about credibility. Credibility does not default to having to cross the "reasonable doubt" threshold stated by various senators.

Says a lot about your idea that most people find her credible, though.

Are you now arguing that credibility properly depends on something other than the appeal to popularity you had just presented?

 

[BobTheCoward]

Says a lot about your idea that most people find her credible, though.

Are you now arguing that credibility properly depends on something other than the appeal to popularity you had just presented?

It is solely a measure of popularity. But that isn't what that survey question asked. It isn't given that confirmation is a referendum on credibility. Further, the term credible doesn't have a threshold. An argument can be credible but not sufficient to affect confirmation.

ETA: But I have to back out of the conversation here. I don't actually care about the hearings or the confirmation. I realize this is solely about my interest in the term credible and polling. So, I am off topic.

 

[Ziggurat]

ETA: I think the fact that people are ignorant is credible. Credible by definition is able to be believed or convincing. A convincing argument that works on ignorant people is a credible argument.

If by "credible" you mean something that can fool ignorant people, then sure, Ford was credible. I'm not sure why that's a standard we should care about, though, and it's a peculiarly pedantic use of the word that doesn't seem helpful at all.

 

[BobTheCoward]

If by "credible" you mean something that can fool ignorant people, then sure, Ford was credible. I'm not sure why that's a standard we should care about, though.

I absolutely don't think credibility is an acceptable standard for knowing something.

 

[BobTheCoward]

If by "credible" you mean something that can fool ignorant people, then sure, Ford was credible. I'm not sure why that's a standard we should care about, though, and it's a peculiarly pedantic use of the word that doesn't seem helpful at all.

You are right. I will stop posting right now because I have no interest in being helpful.

 

[Cain]

What is the problem with government supported birth control and abortions?

Reproductive autonomy is earned, not given. I love how people want basic health-care for free. Should the government just give people free Ferraris as well? Or twelve years of education? Or police protection? The "gimmie 'dat" mentality must stop -- except when it comes to tax cuts for the rich.

 

[theprestige]

and it's a peculiarly pedantic use of the word that doesn't seem helpful at all.

Thank you for reminding of the important part of this particular exchange.

 

[acbytesla]

Dang those republicans for wanting people to understand they must be self supportive of their own living habits...

And if they're not they forced to be parents. People who didn't have the education or the resources to have birth control can now have babies! Yeah! And the rest of us can pay for that. Goodie.

Oh they can practice abstinence? Never mind that the evidence that it is in the poorest and most religious communities that the problem of unwanted pregnancies and STDs is the worst.

 

[River]

And if they're not they forced to be parents. People who didn't have the education or the resources to have birth control can now have babies! Yeah! And the rest of us can pay for that. Goodie.

Oh they can practice abstinence? Never mind that the evidence that it is in the poorest and most religious communities that the problem of unwanted pregnancies and STDs is the worst.

They can understand for every action they take, there is a reaction or consequence. Not everything is an entitlement in this world. I have no problem with people deciding to use birth control or seeking abortion services. If we teach people that they must be responsible for their own actions, I think that is a great way to live your life. All of it.

Do you disagree?

There are plenty of people that would love to adopt those babies for people that either do not want them, or cannot take care of them. If you feel like that is a cruel decision, perhaps those people that decided to have a child or unprotected sex should've made better life choices. Consequences has this way of teaching people not to do things that are dumb, or detrimental.

 

[Stacyhs]

Everything I've seen says the LDS is still growing (albeit more slowly than it has). NRA's numbers are a little harder to pin down, but they usually get an increase every time there's a major mass shooting. Republican party affiliation is decreasing though. And I think you're right that Trump is playing a role in that.

The LDS membership numbers are inflated. LDS membership numbers include converts and "born LDS" who then fall away and do not practice. Members must be removed at their own request and have to do the official paperwork or they remain as official members. My husband and his brothers (born to Mormon parents) were listed as members for years although none of them considered themselves LDS members. My husband had to officially have himself removed but I don't believe his brothers did. My MIL was not a Mormon for decades but was still listed as a member as she never requested to be removed from the members list.

 

[smartcooky]

He has been a judge on the DC Circuit for 12 years, the accusations against him were not credible and the charges of perjury are laughable.

Well done indeed!

You do understand don't you that when someone makes a statement under oath, and that statement turns out to be a lie... that is perjury?

You do understand don't you that when someone makes a statement under oath, and then later, makes a statement (also under oath) that directly contradicts the first statement, that is also perjury?

"credibly accused"

"perjured"

Yes, yes. Fascinating. Mhm. Tell me more.

Alright then, pay attention....

Lie #1: “Dr. Ford’s allegation is not merely uncorroborated, it is refuted by the very people she says were there, including by a longtime friend of hers,”

The truth - The allegations were "uncorroborated", which is not the same as "refuted". I would expect "a judge on the DC Circuit for 12 years" to know the law is this regard

Lie #2: “I never attended a gathering like the one Dr. Ford describes in her allegation”

The truth - The calendar he presented as evidence showed that he in fact attended dozens of parties, just like the one Dr. Ford described

Lie#3: “She and I did not travel in the same social circles.”

The truth - Dr. Ford was the girlfriend of one of the people he went to parties with over the period in question, so he lied - they did in fact know each other and moved in the same circles.

Lie #4: “...I did not drink beer to the point of blacking out, and I never sexually assaulted anyone.”

The truth - over a dozen if Kavanaugh's classmates have come forward and stated that this is a lie. A person who blacks out is unconscious, so how would they know what happened and whether they blacked out or not.

Lie #5 (Renate Alumnius): “That yearbook reference was clumsily intended to show affection and that she was one of us, but in this circus, the media’s interpreted the term is related to sex. It was not related to sex.”

The truth - Again, classmates and friends have stated that this is a lie - it WAS in fact related to sex.

Lie #6 (Beach Week Ralph Club): “I’m known to have a weak stomach, and I always have, in fact, the last time I was here, you asked me about having ketchup on spaghetti. I always have had a weak stomach.” (he's claiming that the reason he vomited was not over-consumption of alcohol.

The truth - Once again, classmates and friends have stated that this is a lie - he was well known for vomiting after drinking too much.

These six are just the beginning, then there are his lies regarding...

7. His family connections to Yale.
8. The reality of Mark Judge's book.
9. His knowledge of sexual harassment by Judge Alex Kozinsky.
10. The William Pryor nomination.
11. The Judge Charles Pickering Sr. nomination.
12. Bush administration’s warrantless wiretapping policy.
13. The emails and documents stolen from Senate Democrats by a Republican staffer.
14. When he learned of Deborah Ramirez’s allegations.

Lies, piled upon more lies, heaped upon still more lies, and with a side-order of untruths. All obvious, all undeniable, and all ignored by the corrupt, self-blindfolded, OWMs on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

 

[Minoosh]

Ladies and gentlemen: the moral majority.

Three of our drive-by "conservatives" have posted this thing about Ginsburg.

You think they all independently came up with the same thought?

 

[Minoosh]

are you praying to God that he will murder someone to advance your agenda?

I'll be you a nickel he doesn't believe in God.

 

[BobTheCoward]

They can understand for every action they take, there is a reaction or consequence. Not everything is an entitlement in this world. I have no problem with people deciding to use birth control or seeking abortion services. If we teach people that they must be responsible for their own actions, I think that is a great way to live your life. All of it.

Do you disagree?

I have questions based on your commitment to adhere to pedagogy and what it provides as the best evidence based approach to teaching that subject.

 

[acbytesla]

The LDS membership numbers are inflated. LDS membership numbers include converts and "born LDS" who then fall away and do not practice. Members must be removed at their own request and have to do the official paperwork or they remain as official members. My husband and his brothers (born to Mormon parents) were listed as members for years although none of them considered themselves LDS members. My husband had to officially have himself removed but I don't believe his brothers did. My MIL was not a Mormon for decades but was still listed as a member as she never requested to be removed from the members list.

The Mormons baptize both alive and dead people who never stepped into a Mormon church. I'm always fascinated by just how much people lie for their religion.

 

[Minoosh]

There are plenty of people that would love to adopt those babies for people that either do not want them, or cannot take care of them.

Really?

I'd say that's probably true if they are white, healthy newborns. But I'm not willing to accept any of that on faith, which is all you have offered.

The problem is that the parents aren't the only ones hurt by the behavior. It hurts kids.

ETA: This is far afield from the actual topic. I'd be interested in seeing the evidence. It does cost less to adopt a black child - it's a supply and demand thing.