2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker

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If it wasn't for REDMAP and the weird rules of the Electoral College, Republicans wouldn't be able to control any part of the Federal Government.
Once Democrats get their act together and manage to fix the map after the next census, the GOP will have to radically re-invent itself or be replaced by something new.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
If it wasn't for REDMAP and the weird rules of the Electoral College, Republicans wouldn't be able to control any part of the Federal Government.
Once Democrats get their act together and manage to fix the map after the next census, the GOP will have to radically re-invent itself or be replaced by something new.
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Sorry, but I find outgageous gerrymandering by Democrats to be just as bad as by Republicans.
I am in favor of what we did in California....take redistricting out of the hands of the State Legislatures altogether since they have shown repeatedly, and with both parties in control, they are not to be trusted with it.
Instead we have a independent, bi partisan commission to do it. It is not a perfect system, but we have a lot of moer competitive districts then we did before.
 
Making "contested" a stated goal of re-districting might be the best solution for everyone, even though both parties would hate it.0
 
dudalb said:
Sorry, but I find outgageous gerrymandering by Democrats to be just as bad as by Republicans.
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Of course - but REDMAP did it on a far larger scale than anything the Dems ever did, and they did it very effectively. The vote margin needed for the Dems to get control of the house is as high as 11%. The Dems never came remotely close to that level of gerrymandering. 55% of people voting for Dems vs 45% voting for GOP could still result in GOP control of the House.
 
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That's sort of the whole purpose of the thread. Anyway, something of a surprise announcement: Include Andrew Cuomo out.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) on Tuesday ruled out a potential bid for the presidency in 2020, saying that he has a "full plate" in his current role.

"I am ruling it out. I ran for governor. I have a full plate. I have many projects. I’m going to be here doing the job of governor. … I’m governor of New York and I have a lot to do," he said in an interview on WNYC's "The Brian Lehrer Show."
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Granted, the New York contingent still not definitively out of it yet is quite substantial; Kirsten Gillibrand is generally considered to be running and Bill De Blasio has not been shy about his longer-term aspirations. Hillary could still throw her pantsuit into the ring.

Gillibrand is getting some pushback from big donors over shoving Al Franken under the bus.

Gillibrand has defended her approach by insisting she placed deeply held personal values over party loyalty. But the still-burning resentment among the donor class now confronts Gillibrand as she explores a presidential bid, cutting her off from influential and deep-pocketed contributors and their networks at a time when an expansive 2020 field will compete for their dollars.

Among those donors is Susie Tompkins Buell, a prominent Democratic fundraiser and co-founder of Esprit and the North Face clothing brands, who said the matter remains fresh in her mind and among those in her circles. The episode, she said, “stained [Gillibrand’s] reputation as a fair player.”
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Because of course a fair player would have put party over principle.

Anyway, I would expect to see a few more "not-running" announcements before the holidays, and the first big "Yes, I am" announcements in early January. Many of the unannounced have already started wooing potential staff in Iowa.
 
Brainster said:
That's sort of the whole purpose of the thread. Anyway, something of a surprise announcement: Include Andrew Cuomo out.



Granted, the New York contingent still not definitively out of it yet is quite substantial; Kirsten Gillibrand is generally considered to be running and Bill De Blasio has not been shy about his longer-term aspirations. Hillary could still throw her pantsuit into the ring.

Gillibrand is getting some pushback from big donors over shoving Al Franken under the bus.



Because of course a fair player would have put party over principle.

Anyway, I would expect to see a few more "not-running" announcements before the holidays, and the first big "Yes, I am" announcements in early January. Many of the unannounced have already started wooing potential staff in Iowa.
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Thanks. That helps explain why Gillibrand seemed concerned with campaign finance reform when she was on the Daily Show. But, as your commentary implies, I hope the future of the party is more progressive than protectionist.
 
Dr. Keith said:
Thanks. That helps explain why Gillibrand seemed concerned with campaign finance reform when she was on the Daily Show. But, as your commentary implies, I hope the future of the party is more progressive than protectionist.
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I'll take Gillibrand or any NYS Dem seriously on campaign finance reform when I can take them seriously on campaign reform. NYS is an abyss. All the posturing of Cuomo, DeBlasio, Gillibrand, Schumer, Bloomberg.... Think they might have enough clout to fairify the primary process? They talk the talk but have no interest in so doing, as they all know that if they are "the one" come primary time, they lock out the others. Maybe with five people (would've been six with Cuomo) vying for the party nod, they'll actually do something? I doubt it. The upstate fixers and the Tammany Hall modeled backroom boys like it the way it is.

If all of them run, they'll make mincemeat of each other in the early primaries. Five NY dems? Two of whom used to be Republicans? Mia Love could run as a write-in candidate and take various states with 18% and a plurality if they have that many NY targets available to pick on.
 
Beto O'Rourke seen as a top contender according to the headline. Reading the article reveals what the Hill considers a top contender:

O’Rourke, who earned a groundswell of national attention in 2018, was ranked third with 7 percent of Democratic and independent voters backing him, garnering more support than other frequently touted potential challengers.
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On the other hand, the guys in front of him could keel over at any moment: Joe Biden (76) and Bernie Sanders (77). Although the poll notes that Warren, Harris and Booker are polling in the low single digits, the fact is that they will have plenty of visibility over the next year, while it is hard to imagine Beto getting a lot of airtime.
 
Brainster said:
Beto O'Rourke seen as a top contender according to the headline. Reading the article reveals what the Hill considers a top contender:



On the other hand, the guys in front of him could keel over at any moment: Joe Biden (76) and Bernie Sanders (77). Although the poll notes that Warren, Harris and Booker are polling in the low single digits, the fact is that they will have plenty of visibility over the next year, while it is hard to imagine Beto getting a lot of airtime.
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I agree with his lack of exposure hurting him over the buildup to the primary fight. I think the play for Beto and the DNC is Texas. He'd make a great VP candidate. A whole lot of Cruz people will not vote for Trump. Republicans still hold the state, if they turn out. If they don't turn out for Trump (let's see how they like his new best buddies lowering oil prices so Donnie can win in North Carolina while putting ND and TX companies into receivership.... just as a hypothetical.

But it's early... we're going to go through several iterations of "who's the anointed one" in 2019. People tire of some candidates very quickly. Lookit Jeb Bush with his vaunted war chest and the Bush machine...
 
Foolmewunz said:
I agree with his lack of exposure hurting him over the buildup to the primary fight. I think the play for Beto and the DNC is Texas. He'd make a great VP candidate. A whole lot of Cruz people will not vote for Trump. Republicans still hold the state, if they turn out. If they don't turn out for Trump (let's see how they like his new best buddies lowering oil prices so Donnie can win in North Carolina while putting ND and TX companies into receivership.... just as a hypothetical.
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Lots of unknowns there. IIRC I did an analysis of the impact of a veep candidate on the ticket a number of years back and concluded that he or she was responsible for about a 2.75 percentage point boost in his or her home state. I doubt if that's going to be enough to turn Texas blue in a presidential election year unless it's a complete wave election.

But it's early... we're going to go through several iterations of "who's the anointed one" in 2019. People tire of some candidates very quickly. Lookit Jeb Bush with his vaunted war chest and the Bush machine...
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Well, 2016 certainly broke all the molds. There's an old saying that the Democrats fall in love and the Republicans fall in line, and it's pretty much been true for my entire life. The Republicans had always nominated whoever's turn it was, while the Democrats were more likely to swoon over some new guy (it had always been guys), from JFK to Jimmy Carter to Bill Clinton to Barack Obama. And yet both parties went against type in 2016.
 
My dream ticket, based almost entirely on perceived winnability. Policy specifics are so far down my priority list that I don't care and won't care, not until this existential threat to American democracy is in the rear view mirror.

Gillibrand - O'Rourke

The geezers need to step aside.
 
Okay so a dream candidate for 2020.

1. A white guy. Yeah I know, I know it's playing the absolute worse game for the absolute worse reasons to placate the absolute worse people but the Democrats need to ask themselves do they want to win or feel good about losing.

2. Younger, but don't go crazy. Mid-40s to Mid-50s.

3. And this is by far the most important... somebody unknown. Somebody that isn't on anyone's radar right now. And not on anybody's radar 6 months from now. His name shouldn't be publicly, commonly recognized until... 2 months out from the primary, absolute tops. No old guards, no party regulars, nobody who's "earned it for being in the game so long." NOBODY WITH A HISTORY.
 
Brainster said:
Beto O'Rourke seen as a top contender according to the headline. Reading the article reveals what the Hill considers a top contender:



On the other hand, the guys in front of him could keel over at any moment: Joe Biden (76) and Bernie Sanders (77). Although the poll notes that Warren, Harris and Booker are polling in the low single digits, the fact is that they will have plenty of visibility over the next year, while it is hard to imagine Beto getting a lot of airtime.
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I like Beto. I voted for Beto to be my senator. I think his campaign was good for the Democratic party in Texas. I wish he had won. That being said, I have reservations about him as a presidential candidate. I would put either of the Castro twins above Beto if the intent is to bring Texas into play in a presidential election. I think they would be more likely to get the vote out and would do better in national debates.
 
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