Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

So does this make a deal more or less likely?

At this rate even if the EU offered a deal with everything the UK wanted and a cherry on top there'd be nobody left to sign it.

A deal has always been unlikely because the circle cannot be squared between what the Leavers will accept and what the EU will accept.

 

[uke2se]

Does Britain really count as Russia's second ideological rival? The Eu I could see, but if you had to pick a second nation I am not sure it would be Britain and not Germany.

I'd say the Anglosphere has been pretty dominant in Western culture since World War II. Now the two leading nations within the Anglosphere are getting wrecked. That's the ideological rivalry I was referring to.

 

[Garrison]

At this rate even if the EU offered a deal with everything the UK wanted and a cherry on top there'd be nobody left to sign it.

A deal has always been unlikely because the circle cannot be squared between what the Leavers will accept and what the EU will accept.

Or between what the leavers promised the voters and what they are now advocating.

 

[Vixen]

So now Nigel Farage is threatening to resume leadership of UKIP if May doesn't hold out for a hard Brexit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

As someone retweeted tweeted earlier

I knew Brexit means lots of people losing their jobs, but didn't realise they'd announce them one by one on the news

 

[ponderingturtle]

So now Nigel Farage is threatening to resume leadership of UKIP if May doesn't hold out for a hard Brexit.

Is that really a threat though? He was the one who **** his pants in terror and ran away when they won the vote after all.

 

[p0lka]

Jeremy Hunt, hahaha.

 

[GlennB]

Jeremy Hunt, hahaha.

That's great news! We might get a non-moron as Health Minister now. Oh, wait ... they'd need to find a senior non-moron. Ooops. Silly me.

 

[Belgian thought]

Does May want Britain to be hated? Or is she so desperate to keep in power?

"Now PM, my name has been miscalled, most notably on Radio 4, but to show you that I am not, I hear there is a new job going. Now I have ruined the NHS, can I be of service? Or would you like me to resign?"

He reminds of this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1a_4CN4onA

 

[ceptimus]

President Trump isn't negotiating deals in the US' favour. Instead he is unilaterally backing out of deals and imposing tariffs...

He's said that for EU-made cars imported to the USA he might raise the tariff percentage to exactly match the tariff levels the EU impose on USA-made vehicles imported to the EU. No doubt the EU think this is a serious threat to 'free trade'. In 2015 the EU tariff on cars was 10% - that was four times higher than the USA tariff. I don't know if the rates have changed since 2015.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Corbyn commenting in the Commons today

"I think David Davis and Boris Johnson would've resigned on the spot on Friday but they faced a very long walk, no phone, and - due to Govt cuts - no bus service either!"

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Do you think it is?

Why?

Depends on whom you ask this question.
I know from my discussions with American conservatives that free movement is sometimes considered a burden because it allows liberals to move to places where conservatives live.. and they don't appreciate the changing landscape that comes with it.

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Does May want Britain to be hated? Or is she so desperate to keep in power?

"Now PM, my name has been miscalled, most notably on Radio 4, but to show you that I am not, I hear there is a new job going. Now I have ruined the NHS, can I be of service? Or would you like me to resign?"

He reminds of this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1a_4CN4onA

Hard to believe that someone so universally disliked held onto the job long enough to become the longest serving Minister for Health. I understand they were going to throw him a party, but the day it was going to be held he arrived to be told it had been postponed for six months.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Corbyn commenting in the Commons today

"I think David Davis and Boris Johnson would've resigned on the spot on Friday but they faced a very long walk, no phone, and - due to Govt cuts - no bus service either!"

Johnson needed to free up time to lie in front of a bulldozer.

Lets see if he can do as much damage as he did by lying in front of a bus.

 

[a_unique_person]

A big LOL from Oz.

 

[Planigale]

May has come up with a plan, which may or may not be accepted, but which does meet everything offered on the Brexit ballot paper. If leavers are complaining that they no longer want to be a part of the 51.something% who voted to leave in this way they should get behind a second vote.

My prediction however is that the EU will reject the UK's offer and we will be heading for a hard Brexit. At which point the leavers who are happy with this deal will be the ones complaining and yet again there will be a majority of the population unhappy with the outcome.

I have always thought that anything short of a hard Brexit would result in a continued Brexit 2 campaign against any deal with the EU. Anything that left the UK in the EFTA or customs union would just revitalise UKIP and result in a continued blame the EU option, just with extra energy because the UK would be bound by EU decisions but with no say in them.

The two politically 'stable' positions are remaining in the EU or hard Brexit. The economically stable position was remaining in the EU. Which is why I voted remain and would do so again if there was a second vote. However, if we are leaving then I think we need a hard Brexit with a Canada style trade deal.

 

[The Don]

He's said that for EU-made cars imported to the USA he might raise the tariff percentage to exactly match the tariff levels the EU impose on USA-made vehicles imported to the EU. No doubt the EU think this is a serious threat to 'free trade'. In 2015 the EU tariff on cars was 10% - that was four times higher than the USA tariff. I don't know if the rates have changed since 2015.

Donald Trump lies and lies.

I wouldn't trust anything he says about the UK being at the front of the line to get a great trade deal until that deal is signed and even if we did, against all odds, get a great trade deal he might unilaterally break it the very next day.

Regarding the tariffs on vehicles, it sounds like those numbers are right but then again there are other things like train carriages where the US tariffs are eight times the EU tariffs. That's the way these kinds of deals operate. One of the reasons why the US tariffs on car, and more importantly in this case components, is so low is that there are a lot of jobs in the US dependent on the import of components from the EU for US-made vehicles from EU-owned companies like BMW and Mercedes.

 

[ceptimus]

Free trade, in the truest meaning of the term, requires zero tariffs and zero state subsidies. This would be anathema to the EU - which can fairly be called a protectionist bloc - but less so to the USA or a post (real) Brexit UK.

 

[The Don]

The two politically 'stable' positions are remaining in the EU or hard Brexit. The economically stable position was remaining in the EU. Which is why I voted remain and would do so again if there was a second vote. However, if we are leaving then I think we need a hard Brexit with a Canada style trade deal.

That would suit the EU very nicely indeed because AFAIK Canada's deal excludes services. The UK has a very large trade surplus with the EU in services and the EU would love to see that corrected.

Without a deal businesses like mine which sell high value services into the EU will no longer be competing with other EU companies on quality of service, we'll be competing with the huge Indian companies on price. While that may be possible for large outfits who can afford the cost of registration and certification and where the size of contract is such that it can be absorbed, those like mine provide one or two specialists to smaller companies and where the annual value of the contract is measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of Euro then it simply will not be worthwhile for either party.

In particular, the EU will be rubbing its hands and salivating at the prospect of prising some of the financial services away from London. Without financial passporting then some of the work will have to go but the danger is that, having demonstrated how effective they are, other jobs may go to Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt and a new critical mass may be established.

 

[The Don]

Free trade, in the truest meaning of the term, requires zero tariffs and zero state subsidies.

It does, and it's a very rare trade deal where the tariffs are zero. The US in particular subsidises key industries very heavily either directly (like the dairy industry) or by providing a non-competitive environment (like aerospace) whilst making all kinds of noises about other countries' subsidies and so on.

Most countries seem to do it one way or another, whether to protect a politically important sector, protect the national strategic interest or to hothouse a new industry sector.

Ironically, the countries that make the most noise about securing tariff-free access to other markets seem to be the ones who are most protective of their home market - the US and EU spring to mind.

In some cases this is for very good reason. How can an EU farmer with EU animal welfare standards, EU food standards, EU environmental standards and EU worker protections (all of which I would deem desirable) compete on price with imports from a country where none of that applies ?

 

[The Don]

Free trade, in the truest meaning of the term, requires zero tariffs and zero state subsidies. This would be anathema to the EU - which can fairly be called a protectionist bloc - but less so to the USA or a post (real) Brexit UK.

A million laughing dogs wouldn't start to address the highlighted.

The US (like the EU) is fiercely protectionist - whilst, like the EU, maintaining a free trade narrative. Under Donald Trump the US is even more protectionist.