Twenty-one states passed limits, which are now in place in 15 state legislatures. Academics have studied them intensively, by comparing states with term limits to those without, by tracking legislative behavior before and after the imposition of limits, and by combining these approaches to see whether term limits set states on a different path than states without the reform. A clear scholarly consensus has emerged on many of their effects — or lack thereof.
First, term limits would not “drain the swamp” of Washington. They would simply recirculate the water. A host of studies have found — perhaps surprisingly — that implementing term limits has not changed either the characteristics of the politicians who inhabit state legislatures or the process that brings them there.
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Term limits have also failed to open up more opportunities to female or minority candidates, with a few notable exceptions. For better or worse, the politicians who come to state capitols today look much like the term-limited veterans they replaced. As Gary Moncrief, Lynda Powell and Tim Storey concluded in their study of the composition of legislatures, “The notion that term limits will sweep out the old politicians is true (almost by definition), but the idea that term limits will sweep in a new breed is not.”
And what happens when term limits put rookie lawmakers in a statehouse? They lack legislative experience. According to surveys of legislators, statehouse observers and interest groups, members elected after term limits have less institutional knowledge than their predecessors and have less expertise on policy or the political process.
