Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[ponderingturtle]

Incorrect and Ireland has a veto on the eventual deal.

Hence why the no deal solution seems the most likely. Don't need unanimity for that.

 

[ponderingturtle]

How can the Freight Transport Association and the logistics industry "start working on new arrangements" when the government has been unable to clarify what conditions will be? What are they supposed to do?

Move operations overseas while they can of course.

 

[The Don]

Yeah but . . .

Oh for sure it's very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very strongly indicative but we cannot know for absolute certain that the same thing wouldn't have happened if the vote had gone the other way

 

[ceptimus]

The forecasts you quote were based on Cameron's pledge to activate Article 50 the very next day and Osborne's promise of an austerity budget. They also didn't take into account the BoE swinging into action with a massive money printing exercise.

For the sake of argument, I'll accept your premise about the immediate triggering of Article 50 - as it strengthens my case that Remain supporting forecasts were incompetent and wrong.


How many months has it been now since Article 50 was triggered? Half a million extra unemployed? Nope. Recession? Nope.


If they didn't take into account the BOE actions, why the hell didn't they? Surely any competent forecasters would have said, "Our forecasts of half a million extra unemployed and an immediate recession could be prevented by a less painful money printing exercise." Seems like incompetence to me. In any case, the BOE was printing money (aka "quantitative easing") long before the Brexit referendum - they were doing it to prop up the greedy bankers who'd wrecked the economy - but that's a different topic.

 

[Information Analyst]

But that was just by a campaign team. Not an official government warning from the Prime Minister and his team. In any election or referendum, people are used to hearing contradictory claims made by opposing sides. It is up to voters to decide which set of claims they find the more compelling.

You seem to be claiming two different and contradictory things now. First that Leave voters didn't care that Brexit would make things worse, even though Remain campaigners told them it would be, i.e. they accepted those claims, but thought Brexit was "worth" it. Now you are suggesting that Leave voters did not believe the Remain claims, but did believe the Leave claims.

 

[ceptimus]

Do you really believe this? I mean, are you honestly convinced that the UK will be better off (financially as well as otherwise) leaving the EU? Or are you putting on a show because you can't admit to being wrong?

I never said that I'm convinced that the UK will be better off. As I've said repeatedly (you must have missed it) the vote to leave the EU was NOT contingent on the UK being better off.


Even if we are worse off that will be a small price to pay for disentangling ourselves from the corrupt lumbering EU - and if we are worse off it will because of the EU indulging itself in what amounts to a punishing blockade of the UK.


But I don't think we will be worse off. As nearly every speaker in favour of Leave said during the referendum campaign, there is likely to be turbulence and a negative effect on the economy for the short term, followed by a gain in the medium to long term.


Unfortunately, a weak government, headed by a remainer, and urged on by remain enthusiasts, has dithered and delayed so that what would have been a short term hit is being dragged out interminably. We should have got on with the job, triggered Article 50 immediately, not entertained the idea of any "transition period" - which is just staying in the EU for an extra couple of years. And we should have cut short any protracted negotiations with the EU saying, "If you're not prepared to compromise and quickly, then these talks are a waste of time - goodbye."


So I think the long hit to the economy is the fault of remainers. If they'd immediately accepted the democratic vote and everyone pulled together to get on with the job, we'd already be seeing the economic upturn, in my opinion.


In short, you only have yourselves to blame.

 

[ceptimus]

You seem to be claiming two different and contradictory things now. First that Leave voters didn't care that Brexit would make things worse, even though Remain campaigners told them it would be, i.e. they accepted those claims, but thought Brexit was "worth" it. Now you are suggesting that Leave voters did not believe the Remain claims, but did believe the Leave claims.

Where did you get that notion? I specifically said that voters are used to hearing contradictory claims during elections and referendums, and it is up to each individual voter to decide which side has made the most compelling and convincing case.


In the Brexit referendum, the official government line was to support remain. You would have thought that would have carried some weight with voters - Cameron and his acolytes were relying on the effect of government, nearly every official body, and nearly every big business and international organisation, all singing from the same hymn sheet telling us that Brexit would hit us in our wallets.

 

[Lothian]

nearly every official body, and nearly every big business and international organisation, all singing from the same hymn sheet telling us that Brexit would hit us in our wallets.

and we are already £900 down per household before it has even started.

Perhaps those "experts" might know something after all. Who knew?

 

[Information Analyst]

Even if we are worse off that will be a small price to pay for disentangling ourselves from the corrupt lumbering EU - and if we are worse off it will because of the EU indulging itself in what amounts to a punishing blockade of the UK.

Anticipatory excuse noted.

 

[Information Analyst]

In the Brexit referendum, the official government line was to support remain. You would have thought that would have carried some weight with voters - Cameron and his acolytes were relying on the effect of government, nearly every official body, and nearly every big business and international organisation, all singing from the same hymn sheet telling us that Brexit would hit us in our wallets.

Well, given that the Sterling:Euro exchange rate is now "worse" than it was pre-Referendum, it clearly did.

 

[ceptimus]

Well, given that the Sterling:Euro exchange rate is now "worse" than it was pre-Referendum, it clearly did.

Yes and once we get past the remain supporter induced delay, Sterling will soar to a greater height than it was pre-Referendum. Again, it is remain supporters that are delaying things, stoking uncertainty, and losing the wealth of ordinary UK residents in the process.

 

[Garrison]

Yes and once we get past the remain supporter induced delay, Sterling will soar to a greater height than it was pre-Referendum. Again, it is remain supporters that are delaying things, stoking uncertainty, and losing the wealth of ordinary UK residents in the process.

And again the unwillingness to take a shred of responsibility of the Brexiteers shines through. It's the EU! It's the Remainers! Its everyone's fault except the Brexiteers, I mean they just lied about the outcomes of Brexit, broke campaign finance laws and cozied up to Putin, clearly they are blameless in all this.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Yes and once we get past the remain supporter induced delay, Sterling will soar to a greater height than it was pre-Referendum. Again, it is remain supporters that are delaying things, stoking uncertainty, and losing the wealth of ordinary UK residents in the process.

Have you read Animal Farm?

 

[The Don]

Yes and once we get past the remain supporter induced delay, Sterling will soar to a greater height than it was pre-Referendum.

Oh dear, that will make UK exported goods less competitive in the world market, not the sort of thing you want when you're making it more inconvenient to deal with your biggest trading partner.

Again, it is remain supporters that are delaying things, stoking uncertainty, and losing the wealth of ordinary UK residents in the process.

Utter rubbish, it's the Brexiteers attempting to square the circle and keep as many of their own camp onside by trying to satisfy their mutually incompatible demand.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Another win for Brexit

Land Rover Discovery model moved to Slovakia from the UK

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has said it will move production of its Land Rover Discovery SUV from the West Midlands to Slovakia from next year.

The Solihull factory, where the Discovery is manufactured, will be used to build a new generation of Range Rover models, the firm said.

The company warned that there may be some job losses in the UK as a result.

JLR - which is owned by the Indian group Tata Motors - said that it remained "committed to the UK".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44438846

 

[ceptimus]

Another win for Brexit

Land Rover Discovery model moved to Slovakia from the UK




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44438846

What's that got to do with Brexit? Have manufacturers never moved production plants abroad prior to Brexit? This is an example of the remain-supporting mentality that anything 'bad' that happens is 'due to Brexit' and anything 'good' that happens is 'despite Brexit'.


quote from your linked article.

Company insiders say Brexit was not a factor - and added that most of the new Range Rovers built in Solihull will be exported to non-EU countries anyway.

 

[Information Analyst]

Yes and once we get past the remain supporter induced delay,Sterling will soar to a greater height than it was pre-Referendum. Again, it is remain supporters that are delaying things, stoking uncertainty, and losing the wealth of ordinary UK residents in the process.

How are they doing that? It seems that the Leave supporters are the ones delaying things, because they can't agree among themselves what they actually want.

 

[ceptimus]

Cameron's reason for holding the referendum was to end the Tory party's divisions over Europe. Two years on and a divided Tory party is still arguing over Europe.


The non-democratic Tory MPs who refuse to accept the will of the people and the instructions of their leader should lose the whip. This would most likely result in another General Election returning Corbyn as Prime Minister:- that ought to teach the Tory party a lesson in listening to the will of the electorate and the benefits of unity.

 

[dudalb]

Man,we have the "True Believer" syndrome here....

IMHO it comes down to "I don't like foreigners" . I think old expression "The Wogs begin at Calais" applies.

 

[Garrison]

Cameron's reason for holding the referendum was to end the Tory party's divisions over Europe. Two years on and a divided Tory party is still arguing over Europe.

So another failure of the Brexit process.

The non-democratic Tory MPs who refuse to accept the will of the people and the instructions of their leader should lose the whip.

Ah yes they should absolutely support a Brexit that delivers none of the promises made by the Leave campaign.

This would most likely result in another General Election returning Corbyn as Prime Minister:- that ought to teach the Tory party a lesson in listening to the will of the electorate and the benefits of unity.

The will of the electorate, as reinterpreted by Brexiteers, possibly with a helping hand from Moscow...