Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[Andy_Ross]

Why do you think that ?

Because we had lost our captive empire to force our exports onto and provide us with cheap materials.

 

[Information Analyst]

2) In any case, the vote to leave the EU was just that. It was NOT contingent on being better off as a result of leaving. People were repeatedly warned by remain supporters, including by official government pamphlet delivered to every household, that leaving would make UK citizens worse off - but they still voted to leave anyway.

They were also repeatedly reassured by Leave supporters that everything would be the same or better.

 

[ceptimus]

That's great! Where are all these good news?

As for there being only opinions and predictions that the UK will be worse off when it leaves the EU, that is, of course ********.



And it had absolutely nothing to do with people like you calling it "project fear".

The question is, where you fooled or did you do the fooling? A bit of both?

Lots of good news. Employment up (opposite of Remain supporting forecasts). UK economy more robust than Remain supporting predictions, Interest rates not increased (Remain supporters predicted that), No recession (another Remain supporting prediction).


Here's an except from H.M. government treasury paper released May 2016 with predictions on the "IMMEDIATE EFFECTS of a Brexit vote"

The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain”. “The analysis also presents a downside scenario, finding that the shock could be much more profound, meaning the effect on the economy would be worse still. The rise in uncertainty could be amplified, the volatility in financial markets more tumultuous, and the extent of the impact to living standards more acute. In this severe scenario, GDP would be 6% smaller, there would be a deeper recession, and the number of people made unemployed would rise by around 800,000 compared with a vote to remain. The hit to wages, inflation, house prices and borrowing would be larger. There is a credible risk that this more acute scenario could materialise.

Basically, every prediction made that can be tested so far has been shown to be wrong. However, for true believers of Remain, that is no reason for them to stop believing forecasts of doom that apply only after Brexit is completed.

 

[ceptimus]

They were also repeatedly reassured by Leave supporters that everything would be the same or better.

But that was just by a campaign team. Not an official government warning from the Prime Minister and his team. In any election or referendum, people are used to hearing contradictory claims made by opposing sides. It is up to voters to decide which set of claims they find the more compelling.


Governments very rarely live up to all the claims they made during the election campaign and these shortfalls are put down to 'events'. This doesn't give the electorate a right to a repeat election. The same applies to the referendum, especially when the Brexit process isn't complete yet and people are only listening to the doom laden predictions of remain supporters - predictions already discredited as shown in my previous post - rather than actual outcomes.

 

[Strawberry]

Lots of good news. Employment up (opposite of Remain supporting forecasts). UK economy more robust than Remain supporting predictions, Interest rates not increased (Remain supporters predicted that), No recession (another Remain supporting prediction).


Here's an except from H.M. government treasury paper released May 2016 with predictions on the "IMMEDIATE EFFECTS of a Brexit vote"





Basically, every prediction made that can be tested so far has been shown to be wrong. However, for true believers of Remain, that is no reason for them to stop believing forecasts of doom that apply only after Brexit is completed.

Britain has the lowest economic growth in the EU, in contrast with the highest before the Brexit vote. Growth shrank to just 0.1% in the last quarter, if it shrinks any more the UK will be in recession.

 

[Francesca R]

Britain has the lowest economic growth in the EU, in contrast with the highest before the Brexit vote. Growth shrank to just 0.1% in the last quarter, if it shrinks any more the UK will be in recession.

We had a few days of snow end Feb/early March that's usually growth-mageddon for the UK.

Probably won't snow post Brexit.

 

[wobs]

1) You only have opinions and predictions that the UK will be worse off when it leaves the EU. That is NOT evidence. There are also opinions and predictions (including from remain supporting organisations such as the Bank of England) that in the long run, the UK will NOT be worse off. It will be impossible to know for sure as any statistics will only be able to compare the present real situation with a prediction of what the situation would have been were an alternative course of action taken.

Even the Express and the DExEU have admitted we will be worse off. And this link refers to many of the studies that cover this well worn path:
https://theconversation.com/the-cos...the-forecasts-explained-by-an-economist-91172

Here are some of the studies that cover the issue:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/brexits-long-run-effects-john-van-reenen.pdf
https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/files/39338209/IPOL_IDA_2016_595334_EN.pdf
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf


Or you could look at economic forecasts, and see how they fared:
"How did the major forecasters perform for the UK? Figure 2 shows a selection of Brexit scenario forecasts by Economists for Brexit, IMF, NIESR and OECD that were published ahead of the referendum. We have actual GDP growth data for 2016, and for 2017 we benchmark the Brexit forecast against the latest consensus forecast. All forecasters, with the exception of the ‘Economists for Brexit’, rightly envisaged that the economy will slow."
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/brexit-forecasters-how-did-they-perform

2) In any case, the vote to leave the EU was just that. It was NOT contingent on being better off as a result of leaving. People were repeatedly warned by remain supporters, including by official government pamphlet delivered to every household, that leaving would make UK citizens worse off - but they still voted to leave anyway.

People voted leave for different reasons. Are you suggesting the UK should not be allowed to change its mind?

 

[ceptimus]

Britain has the lowest economic growth in the EU, in contrast with the highest before the Brexit vote. Growth shrank to just 0.1% in the last quarter, if it shrinks any more the UK will be in recession.

You admit that the forecasts of half a million extra unemployed and a recession were plain wrong, but then hand wave away the fact that we were looking at government predictions and proceed to cherry pick the worst figures you could find to put a negative spin on Brexit.


The forecasts were WRONG. That is a fact. Only a fool would continue to put their trust in the forecasts of an organisation whose testable forecasts on the same subject have been shown to be so spectacularly wrong.

 

[Strawberry]

We had a few days of snow end Feb/early March that's usually growth-mageddon for the UK.

Probably won't snow post Brexit.

It must have not snowed before the referendum either since the UK was the fastest growing economy in the EU up till then.

Snow. I've heard it all now.

 

[Strawberry]

You admit that the forecasts of half a million extra unemployed and a recession were plain wrong, but then hand wave away the fact that we were looking at government predictions and proceed to cherry pick the worst figures you could find to put a negative spin on Brexit.


The forecasts were WRONG. That is a fact. Only a fool would continue to put their trust in the forecasts of an organisation whose testable forecasts on the same subject have been shown to be so spectacularly wrong.

The forecasts you quote were based on Cameron's pledge to activate Article 50 the very next day and Osborne's promise of an austerity budget. They also didn't take into account the BoE swinging into action with a massive money printing exercise.

So your hope for the future is really based on the notion that forecasters working with inaccurate information made inaccurate predictions. And the economy is still slowing.

And nobody can come up with a solution to the Irish border that doesn't cross one of May's self-contradictory red lines, which means Britain might well crash out of the EU with no deal and no transition period. Brexit is a total *************** at this stage.

 

[Francesca R]

Snow. I've heard it all now.

Oh it wasn't the first time.

UK economy suffers 0.5% contraction (Q4 2010)

"These are obviously disappointing numbers, but the ONS has made it very clear that the fall in GDP was driven by the terrible weather in December," Mr Osborne said.

 

[Lothian]

You admit that the forecasts of half a million extra unemployed and a recession were plain wrong, but then hand wave away the fact that we were looking at government predictions and proceed to cherry pick the worst figures you could find to put a negative spin on Brexit.


The forecasts were WRONG. That is a fact. Only a fool would continue to put their trust in the forecasts of an organisation whose testable forecasts on the same subject have been shown to be so spectacularly wrong.

The forecasts didn't take account of the £70bn (over 5 years of EU contributions) the BoE pumped into the economy to stave off the effects of the vote.

 

[Francesca R]

I wonder if they took into account the effects of the punishment budget that never was

 

[uke2se]

Lots of good news. Employment up (opposite of Remain supporting forecasts). UK economy more robust than Remain supporting predictions, Interest rates not increased (Remain supporters predicted that), No recession (another Remain supporting prediction).


Here's an except from H.M. government treasury paper released May 2016 with predictions on the "IMMEDIATE EFFECTS of a Brexit vote"





Basically, every prediction made that can be tested so far has been shown to be wrong. However, for true believers of Remain, that is no reason for them to stop believing forecasts of doom that apply only after Brexit is completed.

Do you really believe this? I mean, are you honestly convinced that the UK will be better off (financially as well as otherwise) leaving the EU? Or are you putting on a show because you can't admit to being wrong?

 

[The Don]

Do you really believe this? I mean, are you honestly convinced that the UK will be better off (financially as well as otherwise) leaving the EU? Or are you putting on a show because you can't admit to being wrong?

IMO ceptimus is right that we will never be able to definitively say whether Brexit had negative economic effects because we won't have a control UK economy which was otherwise identical apart from the effects of Brexit.

We can attempt to draw conclusions by comparing UK growth to our most comparable trading partners and/or to previous growth in the UK economy and suggest that Brexit may be responsible for any significant divergence but we cannot say for absolute certain that Brexit was to blame.

Likewise with the effects due to the Brexit vote. The value of the pound could have fallen steeply and UK growth could have slowed dramatically even if the vote had gone Remain.

 

[uke2se]

IMO ceptimus is right that we will never be able to definitively say whether Brexit had negative economic effects because we won't have a control UK economy which was otherwise identical apart from the effects of Brexit.

We can attempt to draw conclusions by comparing UK growth to our most comparable trading partners and/or to previous growth in the UK economy and suggest that Brexit may be responsible for any significant divergence but we cannot say for absolute certain that Brexit was to blame.

Likewise with the effects due to the Brexit vote. The value of the pound could have fallen steeply and UK growth could have slowed dramatically even if the vote had gone Remain.

So how would we ever figure out what's the best course of action? However would we do it? We would need someone who knew how stuff works to figure out some kind of method of applying our current situation on future events. I propose we call these - obviously just imagined - people "experts".

I wonder what they would have said about all this.

 

[Francesca R]

Likewise with the effects due to the Brexit vote. The value of the pound could have fallen steeply and UK growth could have slowed dramatically even if the vote had gone Remain.

Yeah but . . .

 

[Andy_Ross]

Unemployment figures are bogus. There aren't any more jobs they are just spread out thinner. My wife worked at M and Co until a couple of months ago. She started on a 21 hour contract. There were 8 part time shop staff and 3 full time managers. Now there are 15 part time staff on 8 and 12 hour contracts with two full time managers.
It's the same everywhere, the same number of jobs sliced thin.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

You admit that the forecasts of half a million extra unemployed and a recession were plain wrong, but then hand wave away the fact that we were looking at government predictions and proceed to cherry pick the worst figures you could find to put a negative spin on Brexit.


The forecasts were WRONG. That is a fact. Only a fool would continue to put their trust in the forecasts of an organisation whose testable forecasts on the same subject have been shown to be so spectacularly wrong.

One set of predictions went up, one set went down. The trend seen is downward. You attack the prediction going down. If the down prediction is "WRONG" and you consider all such similar claims discredited (ignoring the hasty generalization, selection bias, and false dichotomy for the sake of argument :eyeroll then what is your estimation of the predictions going entirely opposite the actual data and why cling to that prediction?

 

[ponderingturtle]

Enough with the club analogies. No club I've ever been a member of expects anyone to keep paying their club membership fee after they've left the club.

Um yes that is pretty standard actually. Trump got sued because he denied them access to facilities while still charging them fees.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/02/26/trump-golf-club-lawsuit-settlement-members-refunds/375642002/

If a golf club is based on having a given number of members then you can be required to keep paying fees as you agreed to when you joined until you are replaced in the membership roles.