Then you are still wrong.
The acoustic evidence is conditional upon caveats.
If you are trying to treat the terms conditioned and conditional as interchangeable, then clearly there is an issue of your understanding.
Up, or upon, are grammatical choices. If they confuse you, I apologise.
If data is conditioned by factors, or conditional upon those factors, is however a far bigger deal, and the acoustics require conditions to be met.
You are either failing to understand the nature and content of your cited evidence, or (far worse) you dishonestly describing it.
I, by don't of common decency, assume the former, but would appreciate it if you took more care not to give reason to suspect the latter.
No.
As I have tried to explain several times now, that tautology does not fairly represent the view, because the paper you have cited is not evidence of an open mic in the right place.
Far from it. The recordings are only evidence of anything significant if the microphone can be shown to be in the right place.
This is the difference between conditional on, upon, (or up in some short hands, sorry for the confusion before) and conditioned by, factors.
If we knew a location of a microphone, then we could call the significant patterns evidence. We do not. So instead we are in a situation of "Were the location of the mic x1, the outcome y1, would have a significance of z1, and if z1 And z2...And z5 all met, Then the outcome would have a probability of 1 in 100,000.
Your tautology assumes all factors were me, and z5 WAS the outcome.
In simple terms: This is not so.
No.
They did not. They assumed it, based upon their opinion and interpretation of which patterned seemed significant through a coincidence of timing.
The tests were based upon these assumptions, but that is what they are: Base Assumptions.
No The scope of the test was limited before any physical parameters, known or assumed, were taken into consideration.
The scope of the test was limited first and foremost by the intention of the test.
That is to say the intention was never to prove or deduce what the cause or origin of the sound impulses were.
Its scope was only to demonstrate that a rifle shot, of assumed origins was a reasonable match to the pulses IF the assumptions of the mic placement and timing were correct.
They do not prove the open mic was in the right place, or exclude any other sources of the patterns.
To this end, the tests fulfilled the scope admirably, but that does not mean they cemented the probability.
Nope.
The next step was to see if rifle shots in Dealey Plaza could replicate the impulse patterns, if base assumptions were met.
That is to say, if rifle shots could make impulses that look like rifle shots.
The scope of the test does not allow it to say the impulses were, or were not rifle shots, only to show how closely rifle shots could or could not match the impulse patterns.
No other possible sources, from other possible locations were tested, outside the base assumptions.
First of all, the location on Dealey Plaza is itself a base assumption.
Next of course we have to understand the nature of the impulses themselves.
If we strip away the base assumptions, we are looking at any vibration to the membrane of the microphone that might create those impulse patterns. The answer is literally anything: from movement on the cable on the mic, to the crowd noise, to engine noise, to the railyard, to cars passing the other way...
There is nothing magical about those impulses. There is nothing unique about them. They are the ones that looked like rifle shots, if you were looking for rifle shots, and if you then made the rest of the system those assumptions.
That is why the waymarks for location are so precise, to within nine feet (3m) in a space as large as the Plaza. Those are the points at which the impulse patterns can be made to fit to topography.
If the mic is 3m (a few seconds away) the topography does not allow for that conclusion.
This is why it is important to recognise the conclusions are conditional (NOT conditioned). They rely on the assumption of factors being correct, or they are significant.
No.
The results do not prove a bike was in the right place. This is an assumption upon which the results are conditional.
The results do not prove the mic was open at the right time. This is an assumption upon which the results are conditional.
The results do not prove five gunshots.
The prove that IF the dictabelt recording was of the assassination, and IF the time was correctly assumed AND IF the locations of the microphone were correctly assumed, THEN the most likely explanation of those impulses would be gunshots.
This is not a logical fallacy, it is nature of the study you cited.
No.
It is exactly like what I, and others are telling you:
If the mic was in the right place, at the right time, a gunshot is a viable, even probable match for those impulse patterns, but they do not, themselves prove this was the case.
For a start there is no evidence any of the conditions were met, within the tolerances stated by any test.
You simply continue to claim this, without reason.
These values are only significant IF and ONLY IF all base assumptions are proven.
You state them as though they themselves are a reason to assume the conditional factors were met. They are not.
And a slight fudging of numbers to fit the outcome, is not proof of anything.
No. They don't. It is these factors that make a plausible explanation of the impulses based on assumptions of time and location not yet proven .
Without proving the base assumptions, there is no significance.
The acoustic evidence does NOT show the bike was in the right place, at the right time.
It shows impulse patterns that MAY be rifle shots IF AND ONLY IF you prove where the bike was, and when.
No tautology. To assume the bike was where you need it to be, on the assumption the recording is of rifle shots, is to pile bad assumption upon bad assumption and is circular reasoning.
I get that you are struggling to understand what your evidence actually says.
I get that you think it proves where and when the open mic was.
I get that you fundamentally misunderstand what the paper says, and what the probability means.
I even get why it is so hard to admit you are wrong, and that your interpretation will not convince anybody.
No. Those are not the only assumptions made. But by all means, prove me wrong: Show me how the location of the bike and open mic were established to within 9' INDEPENDANT of the sound analysis.
No. As has been shown, many times now, the data shows the significance of the impulses is conditional upon factors not in evidence.
Ergo: If you can not show the base conditions were met, and an open mic was in 9' of each waypoint at the precise times required there is no significance.
Please stop assuming that there was, this is not what the evidence states.
You seem very confused.
The probabilities stated are conditional upon the location of the microphone, they are NOT probabilities OF the location of the microphone.
That is to say: IF the microphone was at position x, the probability of the impulses being a rifle shot are y.
NOT: The probability this is a recording taken at x, AND the impulses being a rifle shot ARE y.
Static is not the only alternative source of the impulses. It may have been the only one considered viable, after base assumptions are applied. If the time and location of the microphone are not taken for granted however, the field becomes wide open.
On the contrary, I understand what a tautology IS, but that does not mean YOURS accurately represents the data, or my point of view.
Unfortunately I am not the one who is displaying a fundamentally flawed understanding the HSCA evidence...